The Persian Gulf has long been a region defined by volatility. Treaty of Amity and Friendship, signed between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 1971, initially aimed to foster cooperation, but tensions regarding regional influence, particularly regarding Iraq and Yemen, have consistently eroded its effectiveness. The 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA) offered a temporary de-escalation, yet its collapse in 2018, followed by escalating proxy conflicts and attacks on oil tankers, underscored the continued fragility of the area. Recent events, including the January 2026 attack on the Saudi Aramco refinery and persistent threats from Iran-backed militias, have demonstrated the vulnerability of energy transit routes. According to a report released by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in February 2026, “The potential for disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remains the most significant threat to global energy markets, with estimated losses of over 2 million barrels per day in a prolonged crisis.”
Key stakeholders in this evolving situation include Thailand, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, and major international energy companies. Thailand’s longstanding reliance on crude oil imports from Oman, dating back to 1998, reflects a strategic recognition of Oman’s geographic position and relatively stable political environment. The Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs’ recent meeting with the Minister of Energy and Minerals of Oman, as detailed in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs press release, highlights a deliberate effort to secure a reliable energy supply. However, the meeting’s emphasis on “safety and freedom of navigation” through the Strait of Hormuz signals a growing awareness of the heightened security risks. “Thailand is acutely aware that its energy security is inextricably linked to the stability of the Persian Gulf,” stated Dr. Arun Boonroong, Senior Fellow at the Institute of Strategic Studies, in a November 2025 interview. “This necessitates a shift from simply securing supply to actively contributing to regional stability, even if that means engaging in difficult diplomatic conversations.”
Data from the Thai Customs Department reveals that Oman accounted for approximately 35% of Thailand’s crude oil imports in 2024, a figure projected to rise to 45% by 2027 as part of Thailand’s broader diversification strategy. Simultaneously, Oman’s “Oman Vision 2040” – a national development plan focused on sustainable economic growth and diversification – aligns with Thailand’s desire to invest in renewable energy projects, particularly solar and wind power. The agreement to promote “greater cooperation in energy investment, particularly in clean energy,” represents a pragmatic response to both immediate energy needs and long-term sustainability goals. However, this shift raises questions of dependence and potential vulnerability.
Looking ahead, the next six months will likely see Thailand intensify its diplomatic efforts to secure enhanced energy supply agreements with Oman and potentially other regional partners, such as Qatar. Long-term (5-10 years), the situation demands a more multifaceted approach. Thailand’s investment in renewable energy, coupled with strategic partnerships for energy diversification, will be paramount. The country’s role in regional security—particularly its commitment to upholding freedom of navigation—will be tested. “The risk of escalation remains significant,” warns Professor Khomphong Voraswath, a specialist in Middle Eastern geopolitics at Chulalongkorn University. “Thailand’s actions – or inaction – will undoubtedly shape the regional balance of power.” The potential for further attacks on oil tankers or heightened tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia could quickly disrupt the Strait’s flow and trigger a global energy crisis.
The current strategic alignment between Thailand and Oman offers a valuable opportunity for sustained collaboration. However, maintaining this partnership will require Thailand to proactively engage in regional diplomacy, supporting efforts to de-escalate tensions and promoting stability in the Persian Gulf. The challenge lies in balancing Thailand’s pursuit of energy security with its commitment to peaceful resolution of conflicts. Ultimately, Thailand’s actions in this critical juncture will serve as a microcosm of the broader, increasingly unpredictable, geopolitical landscape of the 21st century. It is a situation requiring careful consideration and a willingness to engage in open dialogue – to ultimately determine the flow of not just oil, but the currents of global stability.