The current state of affairs in Hiraan reflects a complex interplay of clan-based politics, the persistent threat of al-Shabaab, and a historically weak state capacity. The origins of this system can be traced back to the collapse of the central government in 1991, which precipitated a protracted civil war dominated by local warlords and armed clans. Initially, checkpoints were established as a pragmatic response to insecurity, primarily to control the movement of armed militias and combat the rising influence of al-Shabaab. However, over time, these checkpoints have evolved into instruments of patronage, used by local leaders to extract revenue, consolidate power, and exert control over access to resources – effectively creating a shadow economy. “Checkpoints are not simply about security,” explains Dr. Fatima Hassan, a political economist at the Institute for Security Studies in Nairobi. “They’ve become a mechanism for political control and economic exploitation, profoundly impacting the flow of goods and services.”
The Hiraan region, characterized by a predominantly pastoral economy reliant on livestock trade, has borne the brunt of this system. The proliferation of checkpoints imposes exorbitant fees on traders, significantly reducing profit margins and discouraging investment. According to a recent report by the Somalia Resilience Fund, the average trader faces a 15% ‘tax’ at checkpoints, a cost that is often unpredictable and arbitrarily enforced. This impacts not just traders but also farmers, who struggle to transport their livestock to market, contributing to food insecurity and economic hardship. Furthermore, the disruption of trade routes has fueled competition and resentment between clans, exacerbating existing tensions and undermining efforts at reconciliation. Data from the World Bank shows a 20% decline in intra-regional trade in Hiraan over the past five years, directly correlated with the increased deployment of checkpoints.
Key Stakeholders and Motivations
Several actors are deeply involved in maintaining this system. The Galmudug State, the self-declared governing entity in the region, relies on the checkpoint system to exert authority and maintain order, although its capacity to effectively manage the situation is severely limited. Local clan leaders, often backed by powerful militias, maintain a significant operational presence, benefiting directly from the revenue generated. Al-Shabaab, despite being weakened, continues to exploit the instability created by the checkpoints, using them to disrupt trade, impose its own taxes, and recruit new fighters. “The checkpoints represent a critical vulnerability,” states Dr. Michael Thornton, a security analyst specializing in the Horn of Africa at the International Crisis Group. “They provide al-Shabaab with a convenient platform to operate, control movement, and ultimately, maintain influence.” The presence of international actors, including the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) and various donor countries, adds another layer of complexity. While ATMIS contributes to security, its operations often overlap with the checkpoint system, further blurring lines of accountability and reinforcing a system that is fundamentally unsustainable.
Recent Developments (Past Six Months)
Over the past six months, there’s been a concerning escalation of checkpoint activity, coinciding with increased competition for scarce resources, particularly water, and heightened tensions between clans. Several reports from human rights organizations document instances of arbitrary detention, extortion, and violence perpetrated by checkpoint officials. There have also been sporadic attempts by Galmudug to reduce the number of checkpoints, met with resistance from local leaders who see them as vital to their power. In March, a joint operation by ATMIS and Galmudug resulted in the dismantling of approximately 20 illegal checkpoints, a small but symbolic victory. However, the dismantling of these checkpoints quickly led to a resurgence of activity as local leaders adapted to the situation.
Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook
In the short-term (next six months), the situation is likely to remain precarious. Without a concerted effort to reform the checkpoint system and address the underlying political and economic grievances, the number of checkpoints will continue to increase, further crippling the Somali economy. The upcoming rainy season will exacerbate the situation, as access to roads becomes increasingly difficult, compounding the already significant challenges faced by traders and farmers.
Looking longer-term (five to ten years), the unchecked proliferation of checkpoints poses a substantial threat to Somalia’s long-term stability. Without fundamental reforms, the country risks becoming increasingly fragmented, with a weak state incapable of providing basic services or regulating economic activity. The continued dominance of clan-based politics, fueled by the existing checkpoint system, will inevitably perpetuate instability and undermine efforts to build a more inclusive and prosperous Somalia. “The challenge is not simply to reduce the number of checkpoints,” argues Dr. Hassan. “It’s about building legitimate institutions, promoting good governance, and ensuring that all communities benefit from economic activity.”
Call to Reflection
The silent siege of Hiraan represents a microcosm of the broader challenges facing Somalia. The deployment of checkpoints isn’t just a security measure; it’s a symptom of a deeper malaise – a broken state, corrupt institutions, and a lack of accountability. It’s a system that actively undermines economic development and perpetuates conflict. The situation demands a fundamental rethink of Somalia’s approach to security and governance. It’s time to shift the focus from simply controlling movement to fostering inclusive governance, strengthening state institutions, and unlocking the potential of the Somali economy. We must confront the uncomfortable truth: until this silent siege is broken, Somalia’s future remains deeply uncertain.