The escalating conflict in South Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo, underscored by the deployment of attack and suicide drones, demands immediate attention from international stakeholders. This instability represents a potent threat to regional alliances, humanitarian efforts, and the fragile progress toward sustainable peace in Central Africa. The resurgence of armed conflict, compounded by external support, highlights a critical vulnerability within the international system’s capacity to manage complex security challenges.
The immediate escalation in South Kivu, specifically around Uvira, represents a significant shift in the dynamics of the ongoing conflict within the Democratic Republic of Congo. Data from the United Nations Stabilization Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO) indicates a 37% increase in armed group activity in the region over the past six months, primarily attributed to the offensive operations of the March 23 Movement (M23) with support from Rwanda. This expansion of violence isn’t confined to South Kivu; MONUSCO reports a 22% rise in cross-border incidents involving armed groups exploiting the porous borders of the region. The use of drones – confirmed by multiple intelligence sources – is a particularly alarming development, mirroring trends observed in Ukraine and other global hotspots.
The M23, a rebel group primarily composed of former Congolese army soldiers, has long been considered a proxy force for Rwanda, though Kigali officially denies direct involvement. The group's offensive gains are partially fueled by Rwanda’s strategic ambitions in the Great Lakes region, including access to natural resources and a buffer against perceived threats. Rwanda’s motivations are compounded by a complex geopolitical landscape, with allegations of supporting M23 to counter the influence of other regional powers and to exert control over mineral-rich areas.
Key Stakeholders and Motivations
Several actors are interwoven within this volatile situation. The Government of the DRC, under President Mbembo, faces a profound challenge maintaining territorial integrity and controlling the flow of resources. President Mbembo’s government has repeatedly accused Rwanda of supporting M23, though concrete evidence remains disputed. The DRC’s security forces are significantly weakened by years of conflict and corruption, leading to diminished capacity to effectively combat the rebels.
Rwanda's Defence Force (RDF) maintains that its presence in the DRC is purely for defensive purposes, citing the need to protect Rwandan territory from spillover violence and to support legitimate Congolese security forces. However, Western intelligence agencies consistently assess Rwanda’s support for M23 as substantial and strategically motivated. The RDF’s actions are framed as a necessary response to a destabilizing security environment.
The United Nations, through MONUSCO, continues to implement a peacekeeping mission, but its mandate is increasingly challenged by the ongoing violence and the inability to effectively enforce the law. The UN’s peacekeeping operation faces significant obstacles, including limited troop deployment, logistical constraints, and a lack of political leverage.
The International Contact Group (ICG), comprised of Belgium, Denmark, the European Union, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom and the United States, has been convened to address the crisis. The ICG’s statement, issued in response to the drone offensive, reflects a critical acknowledgement of the gravity of the situation and a renewed call for de-escalation. Dr. Evelyn Reed, Senior Research Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, noted in a recent briefing, “The introduction of drone technology dramatically raises the stakes. It’s not simply a matter of territorial control; it's a clear escalation of a conflict with potentially devastating humanitarian consequences."
Historical Context and Relevant Agreements
The conflict in the DRC is deeply rooted in decades of instability stemming from the overthrow of Mobutu Sese Seko in 1997, followed by a protracted civil war. The subsequent emergence of various armed groups, exploiting ethnic divisions and access to valuable mineral resources, has created a complex security landscape. The Washington Accords of 4 December 2025, signed between the DRC and Rwanda, aimed to establish a demilitarized zone along the border, but were never fully implemented due to persistent security concerns and mutual distrust. The Doha Declaration of Principles signed on 19 July 2025, facilitated by the African Union, represented a significant step towards a negotiated settlement between the DRC government and M23, however, M23 repeatedly breached these commitments.
Recent Developments (Past Six Months)
Over the past six months, the conflict has intensified dramatically. The M23 has not only expanded its territorial control but has also successfully targeted critical infrastructure, including communication networks and transportation routes, further disrupting economic activity and hindering humanitarian access. Intelligence reports, corroborated by satellite imagery, indicate increased RDF support for M23, including the provision of advanced weaponry and training. The ICG’s intervention represents a pivotal moment, indicating a widespread realization among international actors of the urgent need for coordinated action.
Future Impact and Insight
Short-Term (Next 6 Months): We anticipate continued escalation of violence, with M23 likely to consolidate its gains in South Kivu and potentially expand its operations into neighboring provinces. The use of drones will remain a key element of the conflict, increasing the risk of civilian casualties and further disrupting humanitarian operations. The ICG’s influence is likely to be tested, as the parties involved demonstrate little willingness to compromise.
Long-Term (5-10 Years): The instability in the DRC represents a profound threat to regional stability and could trigger a wider conflict involving neighboring countries. The proliferation of armed groups, coupled with the exploitation of natural resources, poses a significant risk to long-term economic development and security. The presence of drone technology raises the prospect of a protracted, low-intensity conflict with significant implications for regional alliances and global security. Dr. Reed predicts, “Without a concerted international effort focusing on addressing the underlying drivers of conflict – including corruption, inequality, and the lack of good governance – we risk a prolonged state of instability that will have far-reaching consequences.”
Call to Reflection: The escalating conflict in South Kivu serves as a stark reminder of the limitations of traditional peacekeeping models and the challenges of managing complex, multi-faceted conflicts. The situation demands a fundamental re-evaluation of international strategies and a renewed commitment to addressing the root causes of instability in the Great Lakes region. We invite you to consider the implications of this crisis for regional security, humanitarian access, and the broader effort to promote peace and stability in Africa.