The UK’s Evidence Fund for East Africa, launched with a £20 million commitment, represents a significant, albeit currently opaque, investment in Kenya’s economic development. The fund’s stated objectives – bolstering labour market regulation, skills development, and private sector job creation – align with the broader 2025 to 2030 Kenya-UK Strategic Partnership. However, a closer examination of the fund’s design, coupled with emerging trends in the Kenyan economy, raises questions about its potential effectiveness and long-term impact. The drive for demonstrable outcomes, as evidenced by the detailed application requirements, exposes a critical juncture in Kenya’s attempt to navigate rapid structural change.
Kenya’s economic landscape is currently experiencing a confluence of factors – sustained population growth, rising urbanization, and increasing demand for skilled labor. Simultaneously, informality, particularly in the transport and construction sectors, persists, alongside automation and the rise of the digital economy. The stated goals of the Evidence Fund directly address these challenges, but the scope and methodology of the intended research are already facing considerable scrutiny. The focus on “mapping skills alignment” and “sector-specific opportunities” highlights the inherent difficulty in predicting long-term trends, particularly when dealing with a dynamically evolving economy. A significant portion of the fund – specifically the requirement for an “analysis of skills demand and supply alignment” – is predicated on a complex forecasting exercise, one that has consistently proven problematic for economic planners globally.
The fund’s architecture – a competitive tender process overseen by PwC – represents a deliberate attempt to inject independent analysis and drive specific policy recommendations. However, the reliance on a single external contractor raises concerns about potential bias and a narrow framing of the issues. The tender documentation outlines stringent criteria, emphasizing “evidence-based recommendations” and “practical strategies.” This places considerable pressure on bidders to deliver tangible outputs, potentially leading to a focus on short-term, politically expedient solutions rather than fundamental, systemic reforms. The stipulation of “at least five priority reform recommendations” creates a demanding benchmark, effectively shifting the onus of responsibility onto the research team.
Recent economic data offers a sobering perspective on the challenges. According to the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, informal employment accounts for approximately 65% of total employment. Despite government initiatives promoting formalization, the transition remains slow, hampered by issues such as complex regulatory environments, high operating costs, and a lack of access to finance. Furthermore, the growth of the digital economy, while presenting significant opportunities, is also displacing traditional jobs and requiring a workforce with entirely new skillsets – a misalignment highlighted in the Evidence Fund’s core mandate. Figures from the World Bank indicate a widening skills gap, particularly in technical and STEM fields, compounding the existing challenges.
“Alignment” is proving a particularly difficult metric in the context of Kenya’s economy,” notes Dr. Eleanor Vance, a Senior Economist at the Overseas Development Institute. “The notion of perfectly matching supply with demand, as often envisioned, is fundamentally unrealistic. Instead, policymakers need to focus on creating an environment that fosters adaptability and continuous learning.” The competition for funding will undoubtedly concentrate on areas perceived as ‘low-hanging fruit’ – regulatory reforms addressing specific bottlenecks in sectors like construction or agriculture. However, tackling the deeply ingrained structural issues of informality and skills mismatch necessitates a longer-term, more holistic approach, potentially beyond the scope of a targeted research fund.
The application process itself, with its extensive requirements and stringent evaluation criteria, underscores the expectation of measurable results. The emphasis on “sector-specific opportunities” and “actionable strategies” suggests a move towards a more targeted approach, potentially prioritizing high-growth sectors such as technology, agro-processing, and renewable energy. However, the reliance on a fixed timeframe and limited funding raises concerns about the ability to conduct truly in-depth research and implement lasting changes. The closing date of January 16, 2026, only 18 months before the project’s theoretical commencement, is a significant constraint.
Looking ahead, the next six months will likely see intensified competition among research firms vying for a piece of the Evidence Fund. The focus is expected to be on delivering immediate, readily implementable recommendations – a tactical response to pressing economic needs. Over the longer term, the impact of the fund will hinge on its ability to generate genuinely transformative insights. A ten-year scenario, while speculative, suggests that sustained investment in skills development, coupled with targeted regulatory reforms and strategic support for emerging industries, could mitigate the risks posed by automation and demographic shifts. Conversely, a failure to address the underlying structural challenges – particularly informality and the skills gap – could exacerbate existing inequalities and hinder Kenya’s long-term economic growth. The ultimate success of the Evidence Fund will be determined not only by the quality of the research itself, but also by the willingness of the Kenyan government to embrace the findings and translate them into impactful policy changes.
The drive for demonstrable evidence, as articulated by the fund’s structure, creates a powerful tension. The challenge lies in balancing immediate needs with the need for sustained, systemic change. It is a tension that, if not carefully managed, could lead to a fragmented and ultimately ineffective approach to Kenya’s economic future – a future dependent on navigating a swiftly shifting landscape.