The global landscape has undergone a fundamental shift. The established norms of international relations are eroding, the pace of technological change is accelerating exponentially, and trust – a foundational element of stability – is demonstrably declining. This reality demands a new operating model for intelligence agencies, one that is not merely reactive but proactive, adaptive and deeply rooted in an understanding of human behaviour and emerging technologies. This document outlines my perspective as a senior operational leader within MI6, focusing on the critical challenges and opportunities confronting our Service in this transformative era. The core of this is to understand and influence the exercise of human agency – a power that, despite our increasingly complex world, remains deeply rooted in who we are.
The Defining Context: A World in Flux
For nearly three decades, I’ve operated across conflict zones and hostile territories, learning firsthand the complex interplay of forces shaping global security. My experience, combined with a deep appreciation for anthropological and psychological insights, allows me to approach these challenges with a unique perspective. The current environment is characterised by several key trends: a multipolar world with intensifying great power competition; the proliferation of disruptive technologies – artificial intelligence, biotechnology, quantum computing – that are rewriting the rules of conflict and control; and a growing disconnect between information and truth, fuelled by disinformation campaigns and algorithmic manipulation.
Understanding the Strategic Threat Landscape – Russia’s Aggression
While I will not detail every intelligence stream, I want to highlight the continuing seriousness of the Russian threat. President Putin’s actions in Ukraine represent a fundamental challenge to the international order and a brutal demonstration of aggressive revisionism. The continued attacks on Ukrainian sovereignty, coupled with a sustained campaign of disinformation and hybrid warfare, underscore the importance of unwavering support for Ukraine and the need to deter further Russian expansionism. The “grey zone” tactics – cyberattacks, drone deployments, maritime provocations – are not merely isolated incidents; they represent a deliberate strategy to destabilise NATO, exploit divisions within European societies, and test our resolve. I want to emphasize, as the Foreign Secretary rightly stated, that the UK is defending itself against Russian information warfare and sanctioning those pushing Kremlin narratives.
Beyond Military Threats: The Rise of Non-State Actors and Technological Disruption
The traditional focus on nation-state adversaries is no longer sufficient. Non-state actors – terrorist groups, criminal networks, and even technologically sophisticated private entities – present increasingly complex and adaptable threats. Moreover, technological advancements are fundamentally altering the nature of conflict. AI-powered autonomous weapons systems, for example, could radically change the dynamics of warfare. Similarly, the ability to manipulate information – to create deepfakes, amplify disinformation, and exploit cognitive biases – poses a serious threat to democratic societies. We must understand the potential consequences of these technologies and develop strategies to mitigate their risks. It’s critical that we do not ignore the emerging convergence of AI, biotechnology, and quantum computing, creating potentially revolutionary, and incredibly dangerous, tools. The ability to predict the effects of these technologies – and understand their influence on human behaviour – is paramount to our success.
The Importance of Human Agency & Intelligence
Amidst this complex environment, one constant remains: the ability of human beings to make informed choices. Throughout my career, I’ve witnessed how individuals, often operating in seemingly small ways, can have a profound impact on global events. Whether it’s a terrorist who decides to renounce violence, a corrupt official who exposes a crime, or a whistleblower who brings information to light – these individuals embody the exercise of human agency. Our intelligence operations are predicated on understanding these motivations and facilitating positive change. We will, for example, continue to engage in direct dialogue with dangerous individuals, not to appease their ideologies, but to understand their thought processes and, where possible, to influence their behaviour.
Shaping the Future of MI6
The success of MI6 will depend on our ability to adapt to this new reality. We must evolve our operational capabilities, foster a culture of innovation, and attract the best and brightest minds. Crucially, we need to embrace a “human-centric” approach to intelligence, recognizing that technology is a tool, not an end in itself. We must invest in training our officers in areas such as behavioural science, critical thinking, and digital literacy. Furthermore, we must strengthen our partnerships with other intelligence agencies, academic institutions, and civil society organizations.
Conclusion: Towards a More Resilient World
The challenges we face are significant, but they are not insurmountable. By embracing a new operating model grounded in an understanding of human behaviour and technological disruption, MI6 can continue to play a vital role in safeguarding the UK’s security and promoting a more resilient and just world. The future will be shaped by who makes the choices, and how they make them. Let us, as an organisation, remain steadfast in our commitment to upholding those values, and using our unique capabilities to shape a better future for all.