The roots of Haiti’s current predicament are deeply embedded in its history. Following its 1804 independence, the nation faced a protracted period of political instability, economic hardship, and catastrophic natural disasters – including the devastating 2010 earthquake – that severely weakened its institutions. The subsequent rise of powerful gangs, fuelled by corruption, poverty, and a lack of governance, has eroded state authority to the point where daily life in many areas is dictated by criminal violence. A key factor often overlooked is the legacy of the Duvalier dictatorship (1978-1986) and its resulting damage to Haitian civil society. This eroded any established mechanisms for conflict resolution and democratic oversight.
The recent United Nations Security Council resolution, largely driven by the United States and supported by key regional actors like Kenya and Panama, signals a renewed international commitment to addressing the crisis. However, the resolution, focused on supporting the Gang Suppression Force (GSF) and bolstering the Multinational Security Support Mission (MSS), reflects a strategic emphasis on a predominantly military approach, arguably overlooking the underlying political and socioeconomic drivers of the instability. As Dr. Elisabeth Glaser, Director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Africa Program, stated, “While security is paramount, a purely military solution is unlikely to succeed without addressing the profound governance challenges and deep-seated inequality that fuel the violence.”
Stakeholders in the Haitian crisis are deeply complex. The Haitian government, weakened and fragmented, struggles to exert control, hampered by a pervasive lack of legitimacy and the influence of the gangs. The GSF, comprised largely of Kenyan police officers, has achieved some tactical successes but faces significant challenges related to operational capacity, community relations, and the complexities of engaging with a network of heavily armed groups. The MSS, involving personnel from various countries, operates within a framework established by the UN, but its effectiveness is constrained by funding limitations and the inherent difficulties of coordinating a multinational force. Furthermore, the involvement of entities like Brazil, traditionally a key player in Haiti’s security landscape, has been scaled back, highlighting a broader trend of waning interest from major international powers.
Data from the International Organization for Migration (IOM) reveals a staggering increase in internal displacement within Haiti over the past six months. Estimates suggest that over 840,000 Haitians have been forced to flee their homes due to gang violence, a figure that continues to rise steadily. This displacement exacerbates humanitarian needs and disrupts already fragile social structures. Simultaneously, reports from organizations like UNICEF document a significant increase in incidents of sexual violence, primarily targeting women and girls, illustrating the devastating impact of the conflict on civilian populations. This trend underscores the need for robust human rights monitoring and accountability mechanisms within any security intervention.
Recent developments reveal a concerning lack of progress in securing a lasting ceasefire or political dialogue. While sporadic negotiations have taken place between the Haitian government and some gangs, these efforts have been repeatedly derailed by mistrust and a failure to address the core issues driving the conflict. The proposed implementation of a new constitution, stalled for years, remains a key impediment to any meaningful political solution. As Dr. Matthew Branton, a specialist in Haitian politics at Georgetown University, argues, “The absence of a credible, inclusive political process is a fundamental obstacle to stability. The current interventions, however well-intentioned, cannot substitute for a genuine commitment to democratic reform.”
Looking ahead, the next six months are likely to see a continuation of the current chaotic situation, with the GSF maintaining a fragile security presence in targeted areas while facing ongoing challenges. The potential for further escalation in violence remains high, particularly during the upcoming hurricane season, which could exacerbate the already dire humanitarian situation. In the longer term (5–10 years), the likelihood of a sustained period of instability persists unless a comprehensive strategy, encompassing security, governance, and socioeconomic development, is implemented. This will require a fundamental shift in approach, moving beyond tactical military interventions to address the root causes of the crisis. Moreover, a critical component must be sustained support for Haitian civil society organizations, which play a vital role in promoting dialogue, accountability, and long-term stability.
The challenges confronting Haiti are formidable, demanding a sustained and multifaceted response. However, the history of interventions in Haiti—including those undertaken by the US Marines in 1915 and 1994—demonstrates that simplistic solutions, imposed from the outside, rarely deliver lasting results. A truly effective strategy requires genuine partnership with the Haitian people, a long-term commitment to supporting Haitian-led initiatives, and a willingness to acknowledge the complex, deeply ingrained nature of the crisis. Ultimately, Haiti’s fate hinges not solely on the actions of external actors, but on the capacity of the Haitian people to build a more just and secure future. The question remains: can the international community learn from the past, and embrace a model of support that genuinely empowers the Haitian people to shape their own destiny?