The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a narrow waterway connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, represents a critical geopolitical chokepoint. Maintaining stability within this region is paramount to global trade flows, energy security, and, increasingly, the evolving strategic alignments shaping the Indo-Pacific. Recent events underscore the escalating importance of the area, demanding a deeper analysis of the complex dynamics at play.
The Bab-el-Mandeb Strait has historically been a focal point for maritime power projection. Britain’s control of the area during the colonial era, marked by the presence of the HMS Cornwallis, established a legacy of strategic importance. Post-World War II, the Suez Crisis and subsequent naval deployments by the United States and other nations demonstrated the area's vulnerability and the need for international security cooperation. Today, the strait’s significance is amplified by the substantial volume of oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transiting its waters – approximately 15% of global seaborne trade – and the growing presence of state-sponsored maritime actors.
Recent developments over the last six months have highlighted the fragility of the situation. In November 2024, the Houthis, based in Yemen, intensified their drone and missile attacks targeting Red Sea shipping lanes. These attacks, ostensibly aimed at Israel's military actions in Gaza, have caused significant disruption to global trade, prompting a substantial number of major shipping companies to reroute vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to voyages and dramatically increasing shipping costs. The United States and the United Kingdom responded with Operation Prosperity Guardian, a multinational maritime security initiative designed to deter further attacks. This operation, involving warships from several allied nations, represents a significant deployment of naval assets and underscores the international community’s recognition of the threat.
The underlying instability stems from the protracted conflict in Yemen, a consequence of the 2015 intervention by a Saudi-led coalition supporting the internationally recognized government. The Houthis, backed by Iran, control significant portions of Yemen and have leveraged their maritime capabilities to challenge the established order. The conflict itself has created a breeding ground for non-state actors and regional rivalries. According to a report by the International Crisis Group, “the Bab-el-Mandeb is not merely a strategic waterway; it’s a reflection of a deeply fractured regional landscape.”
Key stakeholders include, but are not limited to, the United States, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Yemen, China, India, and numerous European nations. The US, as the dominant naval power in the region, bears significant responsibility for maintaining maritime security and protecting vital trade routes. The UK, through its historical ties and the Royal Navy’s continued presence, plays a vital supporting role. Saudi Arabia’s actions in Yemen and its strategic location further complicate the dynamics. Iran’s support for the Houthis represents a critical geopolitical dimension. China’s growing economic influence in the region, coupled with its naval expansion, adds another layer of complexity. India, increasingly assertive in the Indo-Pacific, is actively seeking to expand its maritime security footprint and enhance its strategic partnerships, exemplified by the ongoing IOSCG meetings (as highlighted in a recent release from the Ministry of External Affairs).
The IOSCG, established in 2006, is a crucial element of this strategic alignment. The latest round, held in Muscat on December 4, 2025, focused on “strengthening the framework for cooperative maritime security and deepening bilateral engagement.” As noted in a statement released by the Sultanate of Oman’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, the meeting explored avenues for “enhanced information sharing and coordinated efforts to address maritime security challenges.” The meeting’s agreement to hold the next round in New Delhi is indicative of India’s commitment to bolstering this partnership.
“The Bab-el-Mandeb represents a critical test for the international system’s ability to manage great power competition and maintain open sea lines of communication,” stated Dr. Emily Harding, Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). “The responses to the Houthi attacks will have long-term implications for the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.”
Looking ahead, the short-term (next six months) outlook remains uncertain. The Houthi attacks are likely to continue, potentially escalating if the conflict in Gaza expands. The effectiveness of Operation Prosperity Guardian will be a critical factor. A protracted standoff risks further disrupting global trade and increasing the risk of wider conflict. Longer-term (5–10 years), the situation is likely to be shaped by several converging trends. The continued rise of China’s naval power, coupled with its growing economic influence, will undoubtedly challenge the existing maritime order. The US and its allies will need to adapt their strategies to maintain their strategic advantage. Furthermore, the potential for escalation in Yemen, or the involvement of other regional actors, remains a significant threat.
"The Bab-el-Mandeb is a microcosm of the broader geopolitical contest between a rules-based international order and alternative visions of power," argued Dr. Anthony Cordesman, Chair of the Arleigh Burke Center for Strategic and International Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "The choices made in this crucial waterway will profoundly impact the future of maritime security and the global economy."
Maintaining stability in the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait demands a multifaceted approach, encompassing diplomatic engagement, maritime security operations, and efforts to address the underlying causes of instability in Yemen. The increasing interconnectedness of global trade and security necessitates a collaborative, rather than a confrontational, strategy. The question remains: can the international community effectively manage this crucible of strategic alignment, or will the Bab-el-Mandeb become a catalyst for wider conflict?