Historical roots of the conflict in North and South Kivu stretch back decades, stemming from the collapse of Mobutu Sese Seko’s autocratic regime in 1997 and the subsequent First and Second Congo Wars. These conflicts, fueled by ethnic tensions, resource competition (primarily cobalt and coltan), and regional rivalries involving Rwanda, Uganda, and numerous armed groups, resulted in over five million deaths and displaced millions more. The Washington Accords of 2018, brokered between the DRC and Rwanda, and the subsequent Doha Framework Agreement, aimed to formally end the major hostilities. However, the emergence of the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in the north and the resurgence of the Alliance of Change/March 23 Movement (AFC/M23) in the east demonstrated the enduring nature of these challenges. As ICG researcher, Lydéric Mbakata, recently stated, “The DRC’s conflict is not simply a territorial dispute; it’s a complex tapestry of grievances, power struggles, and historical legacies that demand a holistic approach.”
Key stakeholders in the region include the DRC government under President Felix Tshisekedi, Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame, several regional heads of state – notably those of Uganda and Burundi – and various armed groups, including M23, ADF, and numerous local militias. The United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO), alongside the African Union Mission in the DRC (AMDR), have maintained a significant military presence, but their effectiveness has been repeatedly questioned. The United States, Qatar, and the African Union have all played a role in facilitating diplomatic efforts, often through mediation initiatives. Recent attempts at dialogue, exemplified by the Montreux and Washington meetings as documented by the ICG, represent a fragile, tentative step towards a lasting resolution.
Data from the United Nations Institute for Peace and Justice (UNPIJ) reveals a consistent escalation in armed violence throughout 2023, with civilian casualties continuing to rise despite ceasefire agreements. Furthermore, the increasing deployment of drones – attributed to both Congolese government forces and, alarmingly, to actors including Rwanda – poses a significant humanitarian threat. “The proliferation of drones dramatically alters the dynamics of conflict,” noted Dr. Evelyn Davies, a specialist in unmanned systems and conflict analysis at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI). “Their ability to conduct surveillance and strike with precision, combined with the difficulty in attributing attacks, exacerbates uncertainty and makes de-escalation extraordinarily complex.” The ICG estimates that drone-related incidents have accounted for a disproportionate number of civilian deaths, highlighting a critical gap in adherence to international humanitarian law.
Within the last six months, the situation has deteriorated noticeably. The collapse of the previously fragile ceasefire in North Kivu has resulted in intensified clashes between government forces and M23, while the ADF continues to operate with impunity in the Nord-Kivu province. Humanitarian access remains severely restricted, and the Ebola outbreak, declared a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, has added immense strain to already overwhelmed aid agencies. The ICG’s latest report emphasizes the urgent need for coordinated action to ensure humanitarian relief reaches those in need, particularly in areas affected by the Ebola crisis.
Looking ahead, short-term outcomes are likely to remain volatile, with ongoing military clashes, continued drone use, and persistent humanitarian challenges. The next six months could see a further deterioration in the security situation if confidence-building measures fail to materialize. Long-term, without a fundamental shift in the underlying drivers of conflict – including governance deficits, resource competition, and regional rivalries – the DRC risks remaining trapped in a cycle of instability. Achieving durable peace will require not just the adherence to existing agreements, but a transformative process of inclusive governance, economic development, and reconciliation, as advocated by the ICG and other international observers. “The DRC’s future is inextricably linked to the success of its regional partners,” stated Ambassador Amina Mbaye of the Republic of Angola, “and a commitment to shared prosperity and security is paramount.”
The escalating crisis in the DRC demands a renewed commitment from the international community. Further delays in securing sustained humanitarian access, coupled with the unchecked proliferation of drones, risk pushing the country closer to a full-scale collapse. The international community must prioritize diplomatic engagement, support efforts to promote inclusive governance, and address the root causes of the conflict. Ultimately, the future of the DRC – and the stability of the broader Great Lakes region – hinges on the ability of all stakeholders to prioritize peace and cooperation. What lessons can be drawn from these protracted struggles, and how can we, as observers and participants in global affairs, ensure a more peaceful and equitable outcome?