The meeting between Indonesian and Thai Foreign Ministers Sugiono and Sihasak Phuangketkeow in Jakarta represents a calculated, yet potentially transformative, step in the evolving geopolitical landscape of Southeast Asia. The deepening strategic partnership, catalyzed by a 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations and driven by shared economic and security concerns, possesses the potential to significantly impact regional stability – a crucial element in maintaining a balanced and prosperous Indo-Pacific. This assessment considers historical trends, current dynamics, and anticipated future developments within the context of broader ASEAN and global security considerations.
The intensification of relations between Indonesia and Thailand warrants close attention due to several converging factors. Historically, the two nations have navigated complex relationships, often shaped by territorial disputes – most notably regarding the contested maritime areas of the Malay Archipelago. While open conflict has been avoided through diplomatic channels and established ASEAN mechanisms, underlying tensions have remained a constant. The 2018 maritime boundary agreement, finalized with third-party arbitration, represented a monumental step, yet continued naval activity and overlapping claims highlight the fragility of this resolution. The current dynamic is marked by an unprecedented level of strategic collaboration, ostensibly to address these inherent vulnerabilities.
The impetus for this deepened partnership is multifaceted. Thailand’s designation of Indonesia as a Strategic Partner, formalized during President Prabowo Subianto’s official visit in May 2025, underscores a recognition of shared vulnerabilities in a region facing increasing geopolitical competition. China’s growing influence within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) is a primary driver. The strategic alignment reflects a counterweight to Beijing’s expanding economic and military reach. Data from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) indicates a 37% increase in Chinese naval presence within the South China Sea in the preceding year, a statistic that has galvanized Jakarta and Bangkok to seek enhanced defense cooperation.
The “roadmap” being developed, as articulated by Minister Sugiono, outlines priorities centered on economic resilience and strategic cooperation. Key areas of focus include renewable energy – vital given Indonesia’s vast archipelago and Thailand’s established expertise – biotechnology, and the burgeoning halal industry. Bilateral trade, already exceeding USD 17 billion in 2024, is projected to increase by an estimated 22% over the next five years, according to the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics. Thailand’s total investment in Indonesia has reached nearly USD 1.5 billion over the past five years, reflecting confidence in the Indonesian market and a commitment to long-term economic integration. However, this ambitious growth requires careful management to avoid exacerbating existing inequalities and environmental challenges.
Beyond economic considerations, the meeting’s agenda included critical regional security assessments. The deteriorating relationship between Thailand and Cambodia, particularly regarding the Preah Vihear Temple dispute, is a significant preoccupation for Indonesia, given its role as ASEAN Chair. Indonesia’s expressed appreciation for Thailand and Cambodia’s efforts to de-escalate tensions, aligning with the ASEAN Charter’s principles of peaceful dispute resolution, demonstrates a proactive approach to regional stability. Furthermore, the situation in Myanmar continues to be a major concern, with Indonesia’s reiteration of support for a Myanmar-led peace process, guided by the ASEAN Five-Point Consensus, signaling a commitment to upholding ASEAN’s centrality in resolving the complex humanitarian crisis. According to the International Crisis Group, the implementation of the Five-Point Consensus remains severely hampered by the continued military junta’s intransigence.
The 47th ASEAN Summit, slated for October 2025, represents a critical juncture for this strategic alignment. The Indonesian chairmanship will be pivotal in leveraging the enhanced relationship with Thailand to drive consensus on key ASEAN priorities, including the South China Sea, Myanmar, and broader cybersecurity issues. The summit also presents an opportunity to solidify Indonesia and Thailand’s role as a regional leader, potentially fostering a broader coalition of countries seeking to promote a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific. Data from the Brookings Institution suggests that ASEAN’s influence is growing, but its ability to effectively address challenges is contingent on the willingness of member states to prioritize collective action.
Looking ahead, the short-term (6-12 months) impact of this strategic alignment is likely to be characterized by increased military and intelligence cooperation, focused particularly on maritime security in the Malacca Strait and the South China Sea. Negotiations on joint defense projects are expected to commence, although progress will be contingent on obtaining necessary approvals from both governments. In the longer term (5-10 years), a more robust and integrated defense posture between Indonesia and Thailand could create a powerful regional force, capable of effectively countering potential threats and promoting stability. However, sustained commitment and effective governance will be essential to mitigate risks associated with potential imbalances of power and to ensure that this strategic partnership remains aligned with ASEAN’s broader objectives. The challenge for Indonesia and Thailand will be to translate this burgeoning strategic alignment into tangible results while safeguarding ASEAN’s unity and ensuring that this partnership contributes to a more secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific – a task that demands careful navigation and a commitment to multilateralism.