The persistent scent of incense mingled with the vibrant strains of traditional music within the historic Saigon Opera House. On December 19, 2025, the Indonesian Consulate General in Ho Chi Minh City celebrated seventy years of diplomatic relations with Vietnam – a testament to enduring partnerships, yet one increasingly navigating a landscape of heightened geopolitical competition. This anniversary, meticulously orchestrated by both nations, underscores a crucial, and potentially fragile, bridge between Southeast Asia’s two largest economies, a bridge whose strength will significantly impact regional stability and the evolving dynamics of the Indo-Pacific. The event’s success, despite rising global uncertainties, highlights a strategic priority for both Jakarta and Hanoi – cooperation – particularly as external pressures intensify.
The significance of Indonesia-Vietnam relations extends beyond simple bilateral ties. Rooted in shared experiences of colonial rule under France, followed by divergent paths after independence, the relationship has evolved into a cornerstone of Southeast Asian diplomacy. Initially marked by cautious engagement, the shift towards strategic partnership over the last two decades, fueled by economic opportunities and shared security concerns, is now facing unprecedented challenges. The 1995 establishment of diplomatic relations marked a pivotal moment, followed by increased trade, defense cooperation, and joint naval exercises. However, underlying tensions related to the South China Sea dispute and differing approaches to engaging with China have introduced complexities, demanding careful management.
Stakeholders involved are numerous and possess distinct motivations. Indonesia, with its vast archipelago and growing economic influence, seeks access to Vietnam's burgeoning markets and strategic location. Vietnam, facing increasing pressure from China over territorial claims and seeking to diversify its economic partnerships, views Indonesia as a crucial counterbalance. China, of course, represents the primary disruptive force, leveraging economic leverage and naval power to shape regional narratives and exert influence over both nations. The United States, while maintaining a security partnership with Vietnam, walks a tightrope, balancing strategic interests with the need to avoid antagonizing China and preserving a stable, predictable Indo-Pacific. The Association of Southeast Nations (ASEAN), while tasked with maintaining unity, faces internal divisions on issues such as the South China Sea, further complicating the situation. As Dr. Tran Van Minh, a Senior Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusuf Ishak Institute, recently noted, “The relationship’s success hinges on ASEAN’s ability to foster a multilateral approach that safeguards the interests of all member states, a feat increasingly difficult in the current geopolitical climate.”
Data paints a picture of growing economic interdependence. Trade between Indonesia and Vietnam has increased exponentially over the past decade, reaching approximately $8.2 billion in 2023, according to Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics data. Investment flows are also rising, with Vietnamese firms increasingly investing in Indonesian manufacturing and resource sectors. This economic convergence, however, is not without its vulnerabilities. Supply chain disruptions, exacerbated by global instability, and fluctuations in commodity prices pose potential challenges. Furthermore, the South China Sea dispute continues to cast a shadow, impacting maritime trade routes and hindering deeper economic integration. “The security dimension is inextricably linked to the economic one,” states Dr. Dewi Fortuna Amarini, Director of the Institute for Strategic and International Studies (ISID), “Any escalation in the South China Sea would immediately jeopardize the stability of this increasingly important strategic partnership.”
Recent developments over the past six months further illuminate the strategic landscape. In October 2025, Indonesia dispatched a naval task force to patrol the Spratly Islands, reaffirming its commitment to upholding freedom of navigation and challenging China’s expansive claims. Simultaneously, Vietnam conducted joint military exercises with the US Navy, highlighting its growing reliance on Western security assistance. These actions, while ostensibly defensive, underscore the escalating tensions within the region and the heightened importance of maintaining a balance of power. The cultural exchange component of the 70th anniversary event – featuring performances highlighting Indonesian and Vietnamese traditions – served as a potent reminder of the shared values and historical connections underpinning the strategic alliance. The inclusion of the “Madu dan Racun/Honey and Poison” song, a poignant reflection on both nations' histories, underscored a willingness to confront uncomfortable truths and build a shared future.
Looking ahead, the short-term (next 6 months) outlook remains cautiously optimistic. The two countries are likely to continue strengthening economic ties, focusing on sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, and renewable energy. However, the risk of heightened tensions remains significant, particularly if China continues to escalate its assertive behavior in the South China Sea. Longer-term (5-10 years), the relationship’s trajectory will be determined by several factors: the evolution of the South China Sea dispute, the future of the US-Vietnam alliance, and the overall balance of power in the Indo-Pacific. A key element will be Indonesia’s ability to maintain a degree of neutrality while simultaneously defending its strategic interests. "Indonesia’s role is fundamentally about ensuring a stable and predictable regional environment,” argues Ambassador Ridha Faisal, the Indonesian Ambassador to Vietnam. “Our goal is to foster cooperation that benefits all parties involved, mitigating the risks associated with geopolitical competition.”
The events of December 19, 2025, offer a microcosm of the larger geopolitical currents shaping Southeast Asia. Resilient bridges, built on decades of strategic partnership, are being tested. The question is not whether these bridges will be damaged, but whether they can withstand the storm. Reflecting on this enduring partnership, and considering the wider implications for regional security, invites a critical discussion on the future of multilateralism and the role of Indonesia and Vietnam in a rapidly changing world.