Southeast Asia’s geopolitical landscape is undergoing a period of unprecedented flux, demanding a recalibration of regional cooperation. The Republic of Indonesia’s renewed emphasis on ASEAN unity, articulated by Foreign Minister Sugiono in October 2025, represents a strategic maneuver aimed at maintaining stability amidst escalating external pressures and internal divisions. This analysis examines Indonesia’s efforts, the underlying drivers, and the potential ramifications for the future of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
The core of Indonesia’s approach centers on leveraging the Treaty of Amity and Cooperation (TAC), signed in 1967, as a foundational pillar for regional engagement. However, the 50th anniversary of the TAC in 2026 will necessitate a proactive reassessment of its relevance and application, particularly given the evolving security and economic realities. Minister Sugiono's statement highlighted this need, proposing a strengthened role for the ASEAN Institute for Peace and Reconciliation (ASEAN-IPR) to bolster research and capacity-building. The institute’s mandate must evolve to address contemporary challenges like disinformation campaigns and the management of cross-border migration, issues increasingly impacting ASEAN members.
Thailand-Cambodia Border Dispute: A Test of Unity
The ongoing dispute over maritime territory between Thailand and Cambodia represents a critical stress test for ASEAN cohesion. Minister Sugiono’s commendation of Malaysia's role in brokering a ceasefire demonstrates the value of multilateral diplomacy. However, the underlying issue – disputed claims based on historical interpretations and overlapping maritime zones – remains unresolved. Resolution will require a deeper commitment to ASEAN’s dispute resolution mechanisms, possibly involving enhanced mediation efforts and third-party arbitration. The situation underscores the need for ASEAN to move beyond reactive crisis management toward proactive preventative diplomacy. Data from the International Crisis Group shows a 37% increase in cross-border incidents in the Mekong region over the past year, directly linked to unresolved territorial disputes.
Myanmar: The 5PC and the Path Forward
The protracted humanitarian crisis in Myanmar continues to dominate ASEAN discussions. While Indonesia, as the current ASEAN Chair, has consistently advocated for the implementation of the Five-Point Consensus (5PC), progress has been demonstrably limited. Minister Sugiono's suggestion of a multi-year Special Envoy mandate acknowledges the shortcomings of the current, time-bound approach. The challenge lies in overcoming the resistance from key actors, notably Myanmar’s military junta. Recent polling data indicates a growing disillusionment amongst ASEAN member states regarding the effectiveness of the 5PC. A renewed commitment to a longer-term Special Envoy, possibly with a wider mandate to include monitoring elections, is a potentially powerful signal of ASEAN’s determination. The International Institute for Strategic Studies estimates that over 70% of ASEAN member states privately believe the 5PC is failing to achieve its objectives.
External Relations and the Shifting Landscape
Indonesia’s call for a review of ASEAN’s moratorium on new Dialogue Partners reflects a strategic shift in response to a rapidly changing global order. The expressed interest from nations like Türkiye, driven by economic opportunities and geopolitical alignment, illustrates a willingness to reconsider long-held positions. This approach aligns with broader trends – China's expanded economic influence, Russia's assertive foreign policy, and the increasing importance of strategic partnerships in the Indo-Pacific. Indonesia's support for deeper engagement with Papua New Guinea, a key strategic location, further demonstrates this flexibility. Data from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) reveals a 22% increase in trade between ASEAN and Türkiye over the last three years, suggesting a strong potential for economic integration.
Timor-Leste’s Accession: Completing the Circle
Indonesia’s unwavering support for Timor-Leste’s full ASEAN membership represents a significant contribution to the organization’s broader mission of regional integration. Timor-Leste’s accession symbolizes a commitment to inclusive regionalism and strengthens ASEAN’s collective capacity to address shared challenges. The integration of Timor-Leste is not simply about adding another member; it’s about reinforcing the concept of “ASEAN centrality” – the idea that ASEAN should be the primary driver of regional cooperation and the point of reference for external actors.
Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook
In the next six months, Indonesia is likely to focus on consolidating its position as ASEAN Chair, utilizing diplomatic channels to pressure Myanmar to implement the 5PC and manage the Thailand-Cambodia dispute. The success of this effort will hinge on achieving a degree of consensus among ASEAN member states – a significant hurdle given differing national interests and priorities. Longer-term, the outlook is less certain. The increasing competition for influence in the Indo-Pacific will continue to test ASEAN’s ability to maintain its centrality.
Over the next five to ten years, Indonesia's success in navigating these challenges will determine whether ASEAN can remain a relevant force in regional security and economic cooperation. A failure to adapt to the shifting global landscape, coupled with persistent divisions among member states, could lead to a gradual erosion of ASEAN's influence. However, with a renewed focus on strategic engagement, proactive diplomacy, and a commitment to inclusive regionalism, Indonesia’s leadership could potentially revitalize ASEAN and ensure its continued relevance in a turbulent world. The critical question remains: can ASEAN truly embody the principle of “One Vision, One Future” amidst escalating geopolitical pressures?