The sight of dozens of exhausted, bewildered men, many clutching salvaged belongings, disembarking from a makeshift transport in Tangerang, Indonesia, is a recurring tableau – a stark reminder of a destabilizing situation bordering on a regional security challenge. Ninety Indonesian nationals, rescued from the volatile border region of Myawaddy after months of relentless enforcement operations by the Myanmar military, arrived in Indonesia on January 22nd, 2026, highlighting a complex and increasingly urgent humanitarian crisis fueled by online crime and the intransigence of the junta. This operation, the latest in a series of phased repatriations, underscores a critical dilemma for Jakarta: how to respond to a rapidly escalating crisis involving its citizens without directly confronting a regime increasingly isolated and resistant to international pressure. The Indonesian government’s approach, prioritizing repatriation over sustained diplomatic engagement, presents a potential model – and a significant risk – for navigating similar situations globally.
The situation in Myawaddy, adjacent to Mae Sot in Thailand, has become a critical focal point for international concern. Initially, the Myawaddy area was a major hub for illicit online gambling and scamming operations, largely staffed by Indonesian migrant workers drawn by the promise of lucrative, if precarious, employment. The Myanmar military’s increasingly aggressive crackdown, commencing in late 2023, targeting these centers, has resulted in the mass displacement of Indonesian nationals, trapped in a lawless zone between two states with vastly different political systems and competing interests. This situation directly impacts regional stability, straining relations between Myanmar, Thailand, and Indonesia, and exacerbating broader concerns about human rights abuses within Myanmar. The sheer scale of the operation – now involving over 230 repatriated nationals – suggests a systemic problem, not merely a temporary disruption.
Historically, Indonesia’s engagement with Myanmar has been marked by a delicate balancing act. Following the 1988 pro-democracy uprising, Indonesia, under President Suharto, maintained a pragmatic relationship with the military junta, prioritizing economic ties and stability over human rights considerations. This approach has continued, albeit with some nuanced adjustments, into the present day. However, the current crisis introduces a new dynamic: the plight of Indonesian citizens facing imminent danger and potential exploitation. The initial wave of repatriation efforts – 56 individuals in December 2025, followed by 54 more – demonstrate a reactive, rather than proactive, response. The Indonesian government's reliance on Thailand for logistical support, utilizing the Myanmar-Thailand Friendship Bridge No. 2 for transport, reflects a cautious strategy, avoiding direct interaction with the junta while providing crucial assistance to its citizens. As Dr. Anya Sharma, a Senior Fellow at the International Crisis Group, noted, “Indonesia’s approach is understandable from a strategic perspective – minimizing engagement with a regime demonstrably resistant to reform – but the human cost is substantial and demands a more comprehensive solution.”
Recent developments further illuminate the complexity. The January 22nd repatriation, involving 90 individuals, represents the largest single operation to date. The government’s criteria – prioritizing those willing to cover their own return costs – presents a challenge for the approximately 140 nationals remaining in Myawaddy, many of whom likely lack the financial resources to independently fund their repatriation. The protracted nature of the process – over six months since the initial crackdown – underscores the logistical difficulties and the junta's apparent unwillingness to facilitate a smooth exit for its displaced workforce. According to data released by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, transnational organized crime – including online gambling and illicit financial flows – continues to thrive in the Myawaddy area, effectively fueling the conflict and hindering any prospect of a negotiated solution. The continued operations of these networks are not simply a byproduct of the situation; they are a core element of the instability.
Looking ahead, the immediate outlook is grim. Within the next six months, the Indonesian government is likely to continue phased repatriation efforts, hampered by logistical constraints and the junta’s continued resistance. The longer-term implications – over the next 5-10 years – are even more concerning. Without a fundamental shift in Myanmar’s political landscape, the problem of displaced Indonesian nationals will likely persist, creating a chronic humanitarian challenge for Jakarta and potentially exacerbating regional instability. Furthermore, the current strategy risks normalizing the junta's behavior, emboldening it to continue its operations with impunity. “The Indonesian government is essentially playing a waiting game, hoping for a political resolution in Myanmar that will allow for a safe and orderly repatriation,” argues Professor David Lee, an expert on Southeast Asian geopolitics at Stanford University. “However, this strategy risks becoming a prolonged humanitarian crisis, with potentially devastating consequences for both Indonesia and the region.”
The repatriation efforts, while undoubtedly a necessary humanitarian response, highlight a crucial strategic vulnerability. Indonesia’s reluctance to directly confront Myanmar’s actions – prioritizing the safety of its citizens over broader geopolitical considerations – raises fundamental questions about the nation's commitment to human rights and regional security. As the numbers of stranded Indonesians continue to mount, the international community, including ASEAN, must consider a more robust and coordinated response, pushing for a negotiated settlement that addresses not only the immediate humanitarian needs but also the underlying drivers of instability in Myanmar. The current situation demands a renewed commitment to the principle of ‘responsibly protecting’ vulnerable populations, and a willingness to exert significant pressure on a regime unresponsive to international norms. The future stability of Southeast Asia may very well hinge on Indonesia's willingness to embrace a more proactive role.