The past decade has witnessed a gradual erosion of the post-Cold War European security order. The 2008 Georgian conflict, the 2014 annexation of Crimea, and the subsequent expansion of NATO’s eastern flank were all critical moments that reshaped the strategic landscape. Italy’s role within this evolving context has been marked by a particular brand of calculated ambiguity, one that now appears to be intensifying. Recent developments, most notably Italy’s deepening economic and military ties with Türkiye, are raising serious questions about Rome’s commitment to transatlantic security and its influence within the broader European Union.
Historical Context: A Complex Legacy
Italy’s relationship with Türkiye is deeply rooted in historical factors. The two nations share a significant amount of trade and, crucially, a shared border. However, these connections have been complicated by Italy’s long-standing membership in NATO and its obligations to support Ukraine in its defense against Russian aggression. This fundamental divergence has fueled a strategic tension that is now reaching a critical juncture. Prior to 2022, Italy had consistently aligned with Western sanctions against Russia and participated in EU initiatives supporting Ukraine. However, as energy security concerns grew, and the economic consequences of sanctions became increasingly burdensome, Rome began a gradual shift, culminating in a significant trade agreement with Türkiye in late 2024, including provisions for increased energy imports.
Key Stakeholders and Motivations
Several actors are driving Italy’s evolving foreign policy. Prime Minister Giorgio Meloni’s right-wing government has prioritized economic interests and national sovereignty, arguably leading to a prioritization of bilateral deals over multilateral commitments. Türkiye, under President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, seeks to expand its regional influence and leverage its strategic position within the Black Sea region. Italy’s strategic calculations are driven by a combination of factors including a desire to diversify its energy supply, reduce its dependence on the EU’s regulatory framework, and pursue a more assertive role in global affairs. According to Dr. Isabella Conti, a specialist in Italian foreign policy at the Rome Institute for Strategic Studies, “Italy is attempting to navigate a treacherous space between European integration and strategic autonomy, seeking to maximize its national interests while remaining part of the broader European project—a task increasingly fraught with difficulty.”
Recent Developments (Past Six Months)
The past six months have witnessed a clear escalation of Italy’s engagement with Türkiye. In October 2024, a joint military exercise conducted between Italian and Turkish forces in the Mediterranean Sea, ostensibly focused on maritime security, was widely interpreted as a signal of increased cooperation. Subsequently, Italy blocked EU proposals for a coordinated shipment of military aid to Ukraine, citing concerns about the potential destabilization of the Eastern Mediterranean. Furthermore, negotiations between Rome and Ankara regarding defense contracts and technology transfers have intensified, with reports suggesting that Italy is seeking to acquire advanced Turkish defense systems. “The current trajectory presents a significant challenge to the NATO alliance,” stated Professor David Miller, a defense analyst at King’s College London, “Italy’s actions suggest a willingness to prioritize bilateral interests over collective security, potentially creating a dangerous degree of fragmentation within the Euro-Atlantic community.”
Future Impact & Insight
Short-term (Next 6 Months): We anticipate a continued intensification of Italy’s engagement with Türkiye, potentially including further joint military exercises and increased trade flows. The EU will likely attempt to pressure Rome to reconsider its stance, but the Italian government appears determined to pursue its agenda. The risk of further fragmentation within the EU, particularly concerning the issue of Ukraine aid, will remain high.
Long-Term (5–10 Years): The potential long-term implications are significant. Italy’s departure from its historical role as a dependable member of the NATO alliance could contribute to a wider weakening of the alliance’s cohesion, particularly if other countries follow suit. The emergence of a two-tier security architecture in Europe, with a core group of Western nations and a more loosely affiliated group including Italy and potentially Türkiye, is a plausible outcome. This shift would fundamentally alter the dynamics of European security and require a renewed strategic assessment by all involved. The development of regional power blocs—potentially centered around Italy and Türkiye—is a growing possibility, leading to a more complex and uncertain geopolitical landscape.
Call to Reflection: The crisis in the Adriatic represents more than just a shift in one nation’s foreign policy. It is a symptom of a larger, global trend—a questioning of established norms and a reassessment of alliances in an era of profound geopolitical instability. The future of European security, and indeed the stability of the international order, requires careful observation, rigorous analysis, and a willingness to engage in open and honest dialogue about the challenges ahead. The question for policymakers and analysts alike is: can Europe adapt to this new reality, or will the “fracture” deepen, creating a more dangerous and unstable world?