The roots of the crisis extend back to 2019, following the ousting of Omar al-Bashir. The subsequent power struggle between the SAF, largely dominated by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the RSF, commanded by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), culminated in open warfare in April 2023. The conflict quickly spread to other regions, including Kordofan and parts of Darfur, each characterized by complex ethnic dynamics and historical grievances. Estimates from the United Nations and the International Organization for Migration (IOM) indicate over 11 million Sudanese have been internally displaced, with another 7.8 million refugees across neighboring countries – primarily Chad, South Sudan, and Egypt. The World Food Programme (WFP) estimates that over 20 million people require humanitarian assistance, a figure expected to increase significantly as winter approaches and traditional agricultural cycles are disrupted.
The deliberate targeting of civilians, documented extensively by organizations like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, constitutes a systematic strategy of intimidation and control. The RSF has been implicated in widespread killings of civilians, specifically targeting non-combatant groups like Masalit, Zaghawa, and Beni Amer communities, many of whom have long faced persecution under previous regimes. Data released by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) reveals a dramatic increase in armed violence and political violence in Darfur, with the RSF responsible for the vast majority of incidents. “The scale and intensity of the violence we are witnessing is truly alarming,” stated Dr. Elena Ramirez, Senior Research Fellow at the International Crisis Group, “and the lack of accountability is fueling a cycle of impunity.”
Furthermore, the conflict has become a focal point for regional security threats. The RSF’s ties to various transnational criminal networks, including those involved in smuggling and human trafficking, pose a significant risk of instability across the Sahel region. The influx of weapons, primarily from Libya, further complicates the situation and emboldens extremist groups operating in the region. The “Quad” statement, issued jointly by the United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, and Qatar, reflects a growing concern about the conflict’s broader implications. This statement emphasizes the urgent need for a cessation of hostilities and calls for the deployment of a UN peacekeeping force, although securing consensus within the Security Council remains a formidable challenge.
The humanitarian landscape is particularly dire. Widespread conflict has decimated agricultural production, leading to severe food shortages. The obstruction of humanitarian access by both the SAF and RSF has further exacerbated the crisis. According to WFP, over 60% of the population is facing acute food insecurity. “The deliberate targeting of aid workers and the imposition of bureaucratic hurdles are acts of war in themselves,” argues Ms. Fatou Taweero, Head of Office for UNICEF in Sudan. “We need immediate and unimpeded access to reach the most vulnerable.”
Looking ahead, the next six months are likely to see a further deterioration of the humanitarian situation, with increased displacement, starvation, and disease outbreaks. The long-term (5–10 years) outlook remains equally bleak without a comprehensive political solution. A protracted conflict will likely lead to the fragmentation of Sudan, creating a power vacuum that extremist groups can exploit. Moreover, the destabilization of Sudan will have significant repercussions for regional security, potentially triggering a broader refugee crisis and further fueling instability in the Sahel. The resolution of this crisis requires a concerted international effort, prioritizing a negotiated settlement, upholding human rights, and ensuring accountability for war crimes. The call for a three-month humanitarian truce, as outlined in the Quad statement, represents a crucial first step, but sustained diplomatic pressure, combined with targeted sanctions against those perpetuating the violence, are necessary to achieve a lasting peace.