A Decade of Stagnation: The 2022 Labour Survey’s Findings
The first nationally representative household survey of Sudan’s labor market since 2014, conducted by the Gender, Growth and Labour Markets in Low Income Countries program, paints a grim picture. The survey, released in 2025, reveals a persistent and accelerating trend of structural stagnation, particularly within the agrarian sector and the informal economy. Key findings underscore a deeply entrenched system of limited economic opportunities, characterized by high unemployment rates, low wages, and a significant reliance on precarious, self-employed work. The data, collected before the 2023 conflict, indicated that nearly 40% of the workforce was employed in the informal sector – a figure largely unchanged since 2014 – and that agricultural employment had declined by 15% due to factors including drought, lack of investment, and limited access to credit. Furthermore, the survey revealed a persistent skills gap, with a substantial portion of the workforce lacking the training and qualifications required for modern industries.
“The core issue isn’t just unemployment; it’s the quality of the jobs available,” explains Dr. Fatima Hassan, a Senior Researcher at the Institute for African Studies. “The survey demonstrates a system where millions are trapped in low-productivity, low-wage work, lacking the tools to improve their economic circumstances.” This reliance on informal employment, characterized by a lack of legal protections and social security benefits, leaves a vast segment of the population acutely vulnerable to economic shocks and exploitation.
Historical Context & Stakeholder Dynamics
Understanding Sudan’s economic woes requires considering decades of political instability, including the 2003-2019 conflict between North and South Sudan, and subsequent periods of authoritarian rule. The oil-dependent economy, while a source of revenue, has been heavily reliant on foreign investment and vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices. Furthermore, the government’s historically limited investment in agriculture, education, and infrastructure has exacerbated structural issues.
Key stakeholders include the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), whose ongoing conflict is the immediate catalyst for the humanitarian crisis; the international community, particularly the United States, the European Union, and the Gulf states, whose sanctions and diplomatic pressure are significantly impacting the economy; and various regional actors, including Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, who have provided support to the SAF, albeit often with competing strategic interests.
The motivations of these stakeholders are layered. The SAF seeks to maintain control and security, while the RSF aims to challenge this dominance. The international community seeks to promote a stable, democratic Sudan, but differing approaches and competing geopolitical priorities complicate efforts. Economic sanctions, while intended to pressure both sides, have demonstrably worsened the humanitarian situation and fueled resentment.
“The sanctions regime, while targeting specific actors, has had a devastating ripple effect on the entire Sudanese economy,” argues Professor David Richards, a specialist in African Economic Development at Cambridge University. “It has exacerbated inflation, restricted access to vital imports, and deprived the government of crucial revenue streams, ultimately contributing to the conditions that led to the conflict.”
Recent Developments & The Escalating Crisis
Over the past six months, the situation has dramatically deteriorated. The collapse of the Sudanese government in April 2023 marked a critical turning point, triggering a rapid escalation of violence and a mass displacement of civilians. Aid organizations report a catastrophic increase in food insecurity, with over 20 million people facing acute hunger. The disruption of supply chains and the destruction of infrastructure have further crippled the economy, pushing millions more into extreme poverty. Recent reports from the UN indicate that nearly 1.1 million Sudanese have fled the country, primarily to neighboring Chad and Egypt, creating immense strain on already stretched resources. The blockade of key ports by the RSF continues to disrupt trade and further impact the economy, with the agricultural sector particularly hard hit.
Future Impacts & Potential Scenarios
Looking ahead, several scenarios are plausible. In the short term (next 6 months), the conflict will likely continue to destabilize the region, with further displacement and humanitarian crises. The Sudanese economy is projected to contract further, with inflation remaining stubbornly high. Long-term (5-10 years), the consequences could be even more severe. A protracted conflict could lead to a permanent fracturing of Sudan, with the country becoming a battleground for regional powers. The economic consequences would be devastating, with a significant decline in living standards and a potential collapse of the state. Alternatively, a negotiated settlement, while challenging, could lead to a gradual recovery, dependent on significant international support and a commitment to addressing the underlying structural issues exposed by the 2022 survey.
“The situation in Sudan is a stark warning about the dangers of neglecting economic development and failing to address underlying social and political grievances,” concludes Dr. Hassan. “It’s a reminder that security and stability are not simply matters of military force; they are fundamentally rooted in economic opportunity and shared prosperity.”
The silence of Khartoum’s markets is more than just a loss of industry; it represents a failure of opportunity, a fracture in a nation, and a crucial bellwether for regional stability. It demands not just our attention, but our collective reflection on the complex interplay between economic vulnerability and the looming specter of conflict.