Key stakeholders in this evolving relationship are diverse. The United Kingdom, under Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, is prioritizing economic partnerships, particularly within the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), framed as a “prosperity partnership.” Nigeria, South Africa, Kenya, and Ghana represent significant trading partners, each driven by their own economic development goals and increasingly assertive foreign policies. Beyond the nations, influential international organizations like the World Bank and the African Union play a crucial role in shaping the framework for cooperation. However, the motivations are often divergent. The UK sees trade as a means to enhance its economic competitiveness and bolster its global influence, while African nations seek investment, infrastructure development, and security assistance – a potent combination that can generate significant dependency.
Data paints a compelling picture of growth. According to the Observatory of Economic Complexity, UK exports to Africa have increased by 18.5% over the past five years, with key sectors including machinery, pharmaceuticals, and financial services. Simultaneously, imports from Africa – predominantly oil, minerals, and agricultural products – have seen a considerable rise, largely driven by resource demand. “The continent represents a crucial gateway to new markets and sources of raw materials,” noted Dr. Aminata Diallo, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Strategic Diplomacy, “but this expansion must be approached with a deep understanding of the underlying fragility and inherent risks.” (1) Concerns regarding supply chain vulnerabilities and the potential for illicit trade are consistently highlighted by intelligence agencies.
Recent developments over the past six months underscore the accelerating pace of engagement. The UK’s £2.2 billion investment in Nigerian infrastructure, though lauded by the Nigerian government, has also drawn criticism from human rights organizations concerned about its potential impact on local communities and environmental sustainability. Increased military exercises between UK and Ghanaian forces, focusing on maritime security, have further deepened security cooperation, raising questions regarding the potential for escalation in already tense regional dynamics. The African Union’s growing assertion of its own security capabilities, coupled with the strengthening presence of China and Russia, adds another layer of complexity. According to a recent report by Chatham House, “The UK’s ability to maintain influence will be contingent on its capacity to forge genuine partnerships, underpinned by mutual respect and a shared commitment to democratic values.” (2)
Looking ahead, the next six months will likely see a continuation of this trend, with increased trade volumes and a consolidation of security partnerships. Longer-term (5-10 years), the geopolitical implications are far more uncertain. The rise of alternative partnerships – particularly with China and Russia – will present a sustained challenge to the UK’s dominance. Furthermore, the unresolved issues of political instability, corruption, and weak governance across many African nations – a fact highlighted by the U.S. Department of State’s Country Reports on Terrorism – will continue to fuel security challenges and potentially undermine the UK’s efforts to promote stability. The potential for increased competition over critical resources, such as lithium and cobalt, further exacerbates this risk. “We must recognize that simply exporting goods does not guarantee security,” argues Professor David Richards, a specialist in African security at King’s College London. “A comprehensive strategy requires a sustained commitment to addressing the root causes of conflict and promoting good governance.” (3)
The current dynamic—a seemingly benevolent trade push interwoven with security considerations—demands a critical reassessment. Policymakers need to move beyond simplistic notions of “development” and acknowledge the profound risks associated with increasing Western influence in a region grappling with complex internal challenges. The UK’s role, and indeed the broader international community’s, should prioritize long-term stability, democratic governance, and respect for human rights, rather than short-term economic gains. The shifting sands of African geopolitics present both opportunities and dangers, and a failure to understand – and act upon – this nuanced reality will have profound consequences for global security.
The question remains: can the UK genuinely deliver a “prosperity partnership” without inadvertently fueling instability and undermining the very principles it claims to uphold? The answer, it appears, hinges on a willingness to engage with a level of humility and strategic foresight that has, until now, been conspicuously lacking.