The roots of the current crisis in the Sahel extend back to the post-Cold War era, characterized by weak governance, ethnic tensions, and the proliferation of arms. The collapse of Libya in 2011 unleashed a torrent of weapons and instability, which groups like al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and various affiliates of ISIS exploited to expand their influence. The subsequent French-led intervention in Mali in 2013, initially intended to restore government control, quickly devolved into a complex insurgency, driven by resentment of foreign intervention and fueling the rise of groups like the Support Group for Peace (JNIM). The region’s history of drought, coupled with unsustainable agricultural practices, has created a permanent state of food insecurity, rendering communities susceptible to recruitment by extremist organizations offering immediate sustenance and a sense of belonging. “The Sahel represents a classic example of how environmental degradation can amplify existing social and political tensions,” notes Dr. Fatima Diallo, Senior Researcher at the Institute for Security Studies in Addis Ababa. “It’s not simply about a lack of aid; it’s about addressing the systemic vulnerabilities that make communities so susceptible to manipulation.”
The Rise of Social Protection as a Strategic Tool
In recent years, recognizing the limitations of purely security-focused interventions, several actors, including the UK and Somalia, have begun to explore the role of social protection programs as a tool for fostering stability. The UK Government’s High-Level Panel on Social Protection in Fragile and Conflict Affected Settings, a direct response to the escalating crisis, argues that targeted interventions – including cash transfers, food assistance, and livelihood support – can build resilience and reduce the drivers of extremism. “Effective social protection is not a substitute for security operations,” states Dr. Michael Tiffen, Head of Research at ODI, “but it’s a crucial complement. By providing a safety net and investing in communities’ ability to earn a living, we can address the root causes of vulnerability and reduce the appeal of violent actors.” The panel’s focus on nationally led systems reflects a growing consensus that long-term stability requires local ownership and capacity building.
Recent Developments and Shifting Dynamics
Over the past six months, the situation in the Sahel has undergone significant shifts. The collapse of the Malian government in the face of military coups and JNIM’s sustained territorial gains has dramatically altered the security landscape. JNIM has demonstrated a remarkable ability to adapt to counter-terrorism strategies, leveraging local grievances and exploiting the weakened state capacity. Simultaneously, the humanitarian situation has worsened dramatically due to prolonged conflict, severe droughts, and rising food prices, driven in part by global supply chain disruptions. The recent designation of several armed groups, including key factions within JNIM, as “terrorist entities” by the United Nations Security Council has not significantly curtailed their operations and has, in some cases, hardened their resolve. Furthermore, the influx of Russian Wagner Group mercenaries into Mali and the broader region has introduced a new dynamic, intensifying the security environment and complicating efforts to deliver humanitarian assistance. The Wagner Group’s involvement has also undermined the legitimacy of the Malian government and further eroded trust in international actors.
Short-Term and Long-Term Outlook
Looking ahead over the next six months, the situation is expected to deteriorate further. Widespread food shortages, exacerbated by climate change and ongoing conflict, will likely lead to increased displacement and humanitarian emergencies. The security environment will remain volatile, with extremist groups continuing to consolidate their control over territory and exploit local grievances. Donors are expected to increase their humanitarian funding, but the capacity of local actors to effectively deliver assistance will be stretched to its limits.
Over the longer term – 5-10 years – the outlook remains deeply concerning. Without concerted efforts to address the underlying drivers of conflict, the Sahel risks becoming a permanent magnet for instability. The rise of climate change, coupled with weak governance and the continued influence of extremist groups, poses a significant threat to regional and global security. A potential scenario involves the fragmentation of states, the proliferation of non-state armed groups, and the emergence of new refugee crises. “The Sahel’s trajectory depends on a fundamental shift in how the international community approaches the region,” argues Dr. Diallo. “We need to move beyond a purely reactive, security-focused approach and invest in long-term development initiatives that promote inclusive governance, economic opportunity, and climate resilience.”
The success of social protection programs, alongside efforts to address climate change and promote good governance, will be crucial. However, the challenges are immense and require a united global front, driven by a shared understanding of the complexities and a willingness to commit to a truly sustainable and adaptive strategy. Sharing and debating this complex situation is paramount.