The situation in the Sahel has deep historical roots, stemming from the collapse of the Malian state in 2012 following a military coup and subsequent French intervention to protect its uranium mines. This intervention, initially presented as a temporary measure, quickly morphed into a protracted counter-terrorism operation, Operation Barkhane, and established a complex web of alliances and counter-alliances. Simultaneously, the region’s vulnerability to climate change – particularly desertification – exacerbated existing economic hardship and fueled recruitment into extremist groups like Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and Ansarul Islam. The proliferation of small arms, coupled with weak governance structures and rampant corruption, created fertile ground for these non-state actors to thrive. Recent data from the International Crisis Group estimates that over 13,000 people have died directly and indirectly due to conflict in the Sahel since 2016, with displacement figures exceeding 4 million.
## Shifting Alliances and the Withdrawal of Barkhane
Over the past six months, a significant shift has occurred in the geopolitical landscape surrounding the Sahel. The French withdrawal of Operation Barkhane, completed in late 2022, signaled a dramatic reassessment of France’s role and a recognition of the limitations of its approach. This withdrawal, while justified by France as a strategic recalibration, has left a power vacuum, creating both opportunities and dangers. “The French withdrawal was a necessary, albeit painful, step,” explains Dr. Fatima Diallo, a specialist in African security at the Institute for Strategic Studies in Washington D.C. “Years of military intervention, without a comprehensive strategy addressing the underlying drivers of instability, had proven largely ineffective and contributed to further radicalization.” The immediate aftermath saw a scramble for influence as various actors – including the United States, Russia (through the Wagner Group), and several regional powers – sought to establish a presence.
The US, under the Biden administration, has scaled back its direct military involvement, prioritizing training and equipping local security forces while emphasizing a diplomatic approach. However, the delivery of these capabilities has been hampered by bureaucratic delays and a lack of coordination with regional partners. Russia’s growing influence, primarily through the Wagner Group, has been particularly controversial. Wagner’s operations, often characterized by human rights abuses and a disregard for civilian populations, have demonstrably bolstered extremist groups, further complicating the conflict. “Russia’s presence, while potentially offering a short-term solution in terms of counter-terrorism, fundamentally undermines regional stability and risks exacerbating existing tensions,” argues Professor Jean-Luc Picard, a leading expert on Russian foreign policy at Sciences Po University.
## The Role of Regional Actors and Economic Drivers
Several regional actors play crucial roles in this fractured landscape. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has attempted to maintain a unified front, imposing sanctions and pursuing diplomatic efforts to mediate between warring factions. However, ECOWAS’s influence is limited by the diverse interests of its member states and the ongoing conflict. Chad, Mali, and Burkina Faso, grappling with military coups and increasingly reliant on Russia for security assistance, have largely disengaged from ECOWAS initiatives. The economic dimension is also critical. The Sahel’s economies are overwhelmingly dependent on agriculture, which is increasingly threatened by drought, desertification, and conflict. The illicit trade in gold and other minerals, often facilitated by extremist groups, further fuels instability and undermines governance. A report by the World Bank estimates that instability costs the Sahel region over $7.5 billion annually in lost productivity and investment.
## Looking Ahead: A Multi-Year Outlook
Looking ahead over the next six months, we can expect continued escalation of violence, further displacement, and a heightened risk of state failure in Mali, Burkina Faso, and potentially Niger. The competition for influence between international actors will likely intensify, increasing the risk of proxy conflicts and further destabilizing the region. Long-term (5-10 years), a more fragmented Sahel is almost certain. Without a fundamental shift in approach – one that prioritizes strengthening governance, addressing economic grievances, and tackling climate change – the region faces a protracted state of conflict and humanitarian crisis. The potential for extremist groups to consolidate their control and expand their influence remains a significant concern, with implications for regional and global security. The deployment of a robust, multilateral peacekeeping force, coordinated through a strengthened ECOWAS framework, is arguably the most viable, though exceedingly challenging, solution.
The Sahel’s predicament serves as a cautionary tale, highlighting the complex challenges of international intervention and the importance of addressing the root causes of conflict. The situation demands a commitment to a truly collaborative and sustainable approach – one that recognizes the agency of the Sahelian people and prioritizes their long-term security and prosperity. The ongoing situation calls for a concerted effort to share knowledge, foster dialogue, and, ultimately, to ensure that the Sahel doesn’t become a breeding ground for global instability.