The WPS Agenda, established in 2009, fundamentally shifted the approach to conflict resolution, recognizing that women’s full and equal participation is essential for achieving sustainable peace. Prioritizing women’s inclusion in peace processes, ensuring their protection in armed conflict, and addressing the underlying drivers of gender-based violence were positioned as key elements of a more holistic and effective approach to security. However, the Taliban’s return to power has triggered a crisis of implementation, exposing the fragility of this framework and forcing a reckoning with the limitations of purely diplomatic and economic pressure. The Taliban’s justifications for denying women access to education, employment, and public life center on a strict interpretation of Sharia law, framing these restrictions as necessary for social order. This contradicts the WPS Agenda’s core tenet: that excluding women exacerbates conflict and undermines long-term stability.
Historical Context: A Legacy of Shifting Priorities
The current situation is not a sudden departure but a continuation of patterns established during previous Taliban rule and reinforced by decades of conflict and geopolitical maneuvering. Pre-2001, the Soviet-Afghan War saw limited, often reactive, efforts to incorporate women into frontline roles, primarily as nurses and interpreters, driven largely by logistical necessity. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Northern Alliance, led by figures like Ahmad Shah Massoud, employed women in support roles, though their participation in combat remained largely absent. The post-2001 US-led intervention, backed by the WPS Agenda, initially saw significant investment in women’s leadership roles within government ministries and NGOs, along with efforts to combat violence against women. However, the persistent challenge of security sector reform, coupled with corruption and weak governance, ultimately limited the impact of these interventions. The rise of the Taliban and subsequent international sanctions created a vacuum, enabling the group to regain control and reverse many of these gains.
Key Stakeholders and Shifting Motivations
The situation in Afghanistan is characterized by a complex web of stakeholders, each pursuing divergent objectives. The Taliban’s primary motivation remains consolidating power and maintaining control. Their restrictions on women are not solely based on religious ideology; they serve to intimidate the population, undermine the legitimacy of the Afghan government (however weak), and justify their authoritarian rule. International actors – primarily the United States, the European Union, and key regional powers – are grappling with a profoundly altered strategic landscape. The US withdrawal, coupled with the collapse of the Afghan government, has exposed the limitations of its influence. The EU’s response has been largely defined by targeted sanctions and humanitarian aid, with limited success in persuading the Taliban to reverse its policies. China, Pakistan, and Russia maintain engagement with the Taliban, primarily motivated by strategic interests related to regional security and counterterrorism. “The Taliban’s fundamental interest is to maintain power, and they view the WPS Agenda as a tool of Western influence,” explains Dr. Elizabeth King, a Senior Fellow at the International Crisis Group. “While there may be some tactical cooperation on counterterrorism, the broader commitment to women’s rights remains absent.”
Recent Developments and Evolving Risks
Over the past six months, the situation has deteriorated markedly. The Taliban has intensified restrictions, banning secondary education for girls and severely limiting women’s participation in the workforce. Reports from human rights organizations document an alarming rise in gender-based violence. Furthermore, the Taliban has exploited the situation to recruit young girls into extremist groups, creating a new dimension to the conflict. The withdrawal of international funding has exacerbated the humanitarian crisis, pushing millions into poverty and vulnerability. “The lack of education for girls is not just a human rights violation; it’s a strategic vulnerability,” warns Dr. Amina Mohammed, Lead Expert at PeaceRep. “It creates a generation without the skills and opportunities needed to build a stable and prosperous future.” The potential for increased instability and regional spillover remains a significant concern, with the Taliban’s actions potentially emboldening extremist groups and fueling conflict in neighboring countries.
Future Impact and Long-Term Outlook
Short-term, the situation is likely to remain precarious. The Taliban is unlikely to reverse its policies in the immediate future, and international pressure is proving largely ineffective. The humanitarian crisis will deepen, further destabilizing the country. Over the next five to ten years, the long-term consequences of this systemic denial of rights could be profoundly damaging. The absence of an educated female workforce will hinder economic development, and the continued rise of gender-based violence will fuel instability. The potential for protracted conflict, possibly involving regional actors, remains a significant risk. However, the WPS Agenda itself faces a critical re-evaluation. The current strategy of solely relying on diplomatic pressure and economic sanctions has failed. A shift towards a more targeted approach, focused on supporting civil society organizations and empowering local women’s groups, may offer a more sustainable path forward. The ultimate question is whether the WPS Agenda can adapt to operate effectively within a context of authoritarian rule and fundamental human rights violations. “We need to move beyond simply asking the Taliban to comply with the WPS Agenda,” concludes Dr. King. “We need to build alternative pathways for women’s empowerment, regardless of the Taliban’s official pronouncements.” The fractured promise of the WPS Agenda in Afghanistan demands a renewed commitment to innovative strategies and a persistent focus on protecting and empowering the most vulnerable members of society.