The situation in Sudan, particularly the recent events surrounding El Fasher, represents a catastrophic confluence of longstanding regional rivalries, failing governance, and a stark indictment of international inaction. As of November 2023, over 89,000 civilians have been displaced from the city, joining an already staggering 6.4 million internally displaced persons and over 2.7 million refugees across the Sahel region – a humanitarian crisis fueled by decades of conflict and now compounded by the brutal fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The escalating violence and human rights abuses within El Fasher are not isolated incidents; they are symptoms of a destabilizing force threatening to unravel the fragile security architecture of East Africa and test the limits of international consensus.
The Roots of Conflict: A Decades-Long Struggle
The conflict in Sudan’s North has its origins in the 1989 coup by Omar al-Bashir’s National Congress Party, which established a military dictatorship. The ensuing Second Sudanese Civil War (1983-2005), largely driven by disputes over Southern Sudan’s oil wealth and the demand for self-determination, ultimately resulted in South Sudan’s independence in 2011. However, this did not resolve Sudan’s fundamental challenges: a deeply fractured political landscape, endemic corruption, and a powerful military that continues to exert disproportionate influence. The 2019 revolution, which ousted al-Bashir, initially offered a glimmer of hope but quickly descended into a power struggle between the military and civilian factions, culminating in the RSF’s emergence as a significant actor with close ties to the military. “The underlying tensions in Sudan have been building for decades, and the current conflict is simply a manifestation of a system that has consistently failed to address the country’s deep-seated challenges,” notes Dr. Fatima Hassan, Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group. “The war in El Fasher is now a brutal illustration of how unresolved political grievances can erupt into devastating violence.”
Key Stakeholders and Motivations
The primary actors involved in the conflict are the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commanded by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Himeeti). The SAF’s motivations are rooted in maintaining its institutional power and control over Sudan’s institutions, viewing the RSF as a dangerous challenge to its authority. The RSF, on the other hand, seeks to consolidate its power base, expand its influence, and ultimately replace the SAF as the dominant military force. Both factions are backed by external actors. The UAE has provided significant support to the RSF, while Saudi Arabia has offered support to the SAF. Egypt has also been a key backer of the SAF, driven by concerns about regional instability and the potential for chaos to spill over into the Sinai Peninsula. Russia, through the Wagner Group, has reportedly deployed mercenaries to support both sides, further complicating the dynamics. “The involvement of external actors only exacerbates the crisis, transforming what was initially a domestic conflict into a proxy war,” explains Professor David Albright, an expert on African security at the Institute for Strategic Studies. “The lack of unified international pressure is a critical factor in sustaining the violence.”
The Human Cost and Humanitarian Crisis
The fighting in El Fasher has resulted in widespread human rights abuses. Reports from human rights organizations, including Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch, document systematic violations, including summary executions, sexual violence, and abduction. The collapse of El Fasher has led to a massive humanitarian crisis, with civilians facing starvation, disease, and displacement. Access to humanitarian aid remains severely restricted, due to the ongoing fighting and the actions of both warring parties. The UN’s humanitarian coordination office estimates that approximately 10 million people – more than a third of Sudan’s population – require humanitarian assistance. “The humanitarian situation in Sudan is rapidly deteriorating, and the risk of widespread famine is growing,” warns Erin O’Brien, Head of Emergency Response at Save the Children. “Without immediate access to affected populations, the consequences could be catastrophic.”
Strategic Implications and Future Outlook
The conflict in Sudan has significant strategic implications for the region and the wider world. The instability threatens to destabilize the Sahel, a region already grappling with extremist groups and political instability. The flow of refugees and displaced persons could further strain resources in neighboring countries, such as Chad, South Sudan, and Egypt. Moreover, the conflict could provide a breeding ground for extremist groups, such as ISIS, which has already claimed responsibility for attacks in Darfur.
Short-Term (Next 6 Months): The conflict is likely to remain intense, with neither side able to achieve a decisive victory. We can expect continued heavy fighting, further displacement, and a worsening humanitarian situation. The international community will likely continue to debate the appropriate course of action, with divisions persisting between states over the use of sanctions and the provision of security assistance. The key strategic challenge for the international community will be to prevent the conflict from escalating further and to maintain a unified front.
Long-Term (5-10 Years): The long-term outlook for Sudan remains bleak. Unless a credible political transition can be established and a lasting peace agreement can be negotiated, the country is likely to remain trapped in a cycle of conflict and instability. The potential for regional instability and the rise of extremist groups will continue to pose a significant threat. The “crucible” of El Fasher serves as a stark warning: the failure of international diplomacy and the persistence of impunity will have profound and lasting consequences for global security. The question remains: will the international community demonstrate the resolve necessary to address the root causes of this devastating conflict, or will Sudan’s collapse serve as a symbol of our collective failure to uphold the rules-based international order?