The escalating violence, primarily between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), erupted in April 2023 following a power-sharing agreement intended to transition Sudan to civilian rule. This conflict, rooted in decades of unresolved tensions surrounding military dominance, ethnic divisions, and resource control, has quickly devolved into a brutal struggle for control of the country’s vast resources and strategic location. The failure to establish a stable, civilian government, coupled with the support provided – directly or indirectly – by external actors, has created a vortex of instability that threatens to redraw the geopolitical map of the region.
Historical Context: A Legacy of Conflict and Intervention
Sudan’s modern history is defined by cycles of conflict and foreign intervention. The 1983-2005 Second Sudanese Civil War, largely fueled by disputes over oil-rich southern territory, ended with the south’s secession and the creation of South Sudan. Throughout this period, international actors, including the UK, played a significant role, often influenced by geopolitical interests in containing Islamist extremism. Post-independence Sudan has seen recurring military coups, authoritarian rule, and accusations of human rights abuses, creating a volatile environment susceptible to external influence. The 2019 revolution, which ousted longtime dictator Omar al-Bashir, offered a glimmer of hope, but the fragile transition was quickly derailed by the power struggle between the SAF and the RSF, a force initially formed by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti).
Key Stakeholders and Motivations
The conflict involves a complex web of actors with competing agendas:
The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), led by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, seeks to maintain its control over the military and consolidate power.
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF), commanded by General Hemedti, aims to establish dominance and potentially transform into a permanent governing force.
Regional Powers: Egypt and the United Arab Emirates have been identified as key backers of the RSF, ostensibly to ensure stability and protect their economic interests in Sudan.
International Actors: The United States, the European Union, and Saudi Arabia have all expressed concern and offered assistance, with varying degrees of success. The UK has historically been a significant provider of aid, however, recent deliveries have been severely hampered by the conflict.
Data on Aid Delivery – A Critical Examination
The ICAI review, while welcoming, identified several critical shortcomings in the UK’s aid program to Sudan. Specifically, the review highlighted challenges with procurement processes, monitoring and evaluation systems, and the ability to effectively deliver aid to conflict-affected areas. “The scale of the humanitarian crisis demands a significantly more agile and responsive approach from aid agencies,” noted Dr. Eleanor Bell, Director of the UK Aid Data Programme at ODI, in a recent briefing. “Current mechanisms are simply not equipped to handle the speed and intensity of this conflict.” Figures released by the UN show that despite substantial pledges, only a fraction of the intended aid has been delivered, largely due to logistical difficulties and security concerns. (Source: UN OCHA, Sudan Humanitarian Bulletin, October 2023) A key issue is the ongoing inability to guarantee the safety of aid workers.
Recent Developments (Past Six Months)
Over the past six months, the conflict has intensified, with fighting spreading to Darfur and Blue Nile states, triggering massive displacement and exacerbating humanitarian needs. The RSF has gained significant territorial control, particularly in the Jazeera region, while the SAF retains influence in Khartoum and other key urban centers. Negotiations mediated by the African Union and various international actors have repeatedly stalled, hampered by deep mistrust and conflicting demands. The collapse of the Jeddah peace talks in September 2023 further underscored the fragility of any potential resolution. A recent report by the International Crisis Group estimated that over 25,000 people have been killed in the conflict, a figure projected to rise dramatically as fighting continues.
Future Impact & Insight
Short-Term (Next 6 Months): The immediate outlook remains bleak. Continued fighting is expected, leading to further displacement, increased civilian casualties, and a deepening humanitarian crisis. Aid delivery will likely remain severely constrained, pushing millions closer to the brink of starvation. The risk of the conflict spreading to neighboring countries – Chad, South Sudan, and Egypt – is a significant concern.
Long-Term (5-10 Years): The conflict’s long-term consequences could reshape Sudan’s political landscape for decades to come. The potential for a fragmented state, ruled by warring factions and supported by external powers, is substantial. The breakdown of state institutions and the continued instability could have a destabilizing effect on the entire Horn of Africa region. “A protracted civil war in Sudan will not only create a humanitarian catastrophe, it will also become a magnet for transnational criminal activity, including arms trafficking and terrorism,” warned Dr. Ahmed Hassan, a senior analyst at the Royal United Services Institute, during a recent panel discussion. “The ripple effects will be felt across the Sahel.” The potential for a protracted proxy war between regional powers further elevates the risk.
Call to Reflection
The situation in Sudan is a complex and deeply troubling one, demanding a coordinated and sustained international response. The UK’s aid commitment, while historically significant, needs a radical overhaul – prioritizing local expertise, ensuring robust accountability mechanisms, and, critically, establishing safe corridors for aid delivery. The long-term stability of Sudan, and indeed the wider region, hinges on addressing the root causes of the conflict – including addressing inequitable power dynamics and promoting genuine democratic governance. It’s a challenge that demands a nuanced understanding of the historical context, a willingness to engage with all stakeholders, and a steadfast commitment to safeguarding the lives and futures of the Sudanese people. The questions now are: How will the international community respond to this escalating crisis, and what will be the long-term consequences of inaction?