The immediate context is defined by a brutal power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which erupted in April 2023 following a botched military coup. What began as a challenge to civilian rule has rapidly devolved into a multi-faceted conflict characterized by widespread violence, displacement, and a systematic assault on humanitarian access. According to data released by the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), as of November 1, 2023, over 7 million people across Sudan require humanitarian assistance, with the vast majority concentrated in Darfur, Kordofan, and Khartoum states. The scale of the crisis is further complicated by logistical challenges, including disrupted supply routes and the deliberate obstruction of aid deliveries by both warring factions. “The targeting of aid workers and humanitarian facilities represents a serious violation of international law,” stated Dr. Fatima Al-Hassan, Senior Analyst at the International Crisis Group. “It’s not simply a logistical problem; it’s a deliberate strategy to exacerbate the suffering of the civilian population.”
Historical Background: Sudan’s internal conflicts have long been rooted in ethnic tensions, particularly between Arab and non-Arab communities. The Darfur conflict, which began in 2003, was driven by accusations of marginalization and discrimination against non-Arab groups by the then-ruling National Congress Party. The current conflict mirrors these underlying dynamics, with the RSF, largely comprised of former Janjaweed militias, exploiting existing grievances and engaging in widespread human rights abuses. The legacy of the Khartoum regime, coupled with the absence of a strong, unified government, has created a volatile environment ripe for exploitation by external actors.
Key Stakeholders: The primary stakeholders are the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Beyond these two factions, external involvement is significant. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt have been accused of providing military support to the SAF, while Russia’s Wagner Group has reportedly deployed mercenaries to bolster the RSF’s ranks. The African Union (AU) has attempted to mediate the conflict, but its efforts have been hampered by the lack of consensus among the warring parties. The United States and the United Kingdom have been leading international diplomatic efforts, pushing for a ceasefire and advocating for unimpeded humanitarian access. The European Union (EU) has implemented sanctions against individuals and entities involved in the conflict, aiming to pressure the parties to negotiate.
Recent Developments: Over the past six months, the situation has deteriorated sharply. Reports of deliberate obstruction of aid deliveries by both sides have increased, accompanied by escalating violence in Darfur and Kordofan. The targeting of civilian infrastructure, including hospitals and schools, has become increasingly frequent. Most recently, credible reports – verified by multiple humanitarian organizations – indicate the deliberate use of rape as a weapon of war by RSF forces, a tactic seen previously during the Darfur conflict and now confirmed by the UN Human Rights Office. The International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) has documented numerous instances of sexual violence and the devastating impact on survivors. Furthermore, the complex interplay between regional powers – including the UAE’s quiet backing of the SAF and the escalating presence of Wagner Group operatives – complicates the diplomatic landscape. A recent survey conducted by the Sana Strategic Polling Institute indicates a growing disillusionment amongst Sudanese citizens with both the SAF and the RSF.
Short-Term and Long-Term Outcomes: Within the next six months, the situation is likely to remain largely static, characterized by continued fighting, displacement, and a deepening humanitarian crisis. Without a genuine ceasefire and a commitment to upholding humanitarian law, the number of casualties and the number of people requiring assistance will continue to rise. A prolonged stalemate will also exacerbate regional instability, potentially drawing in neighboring countries and fueling further migration flows. The long-term outlook, spanning five to ten years, hinges on the ability of the international community to effectively pressure the warring parties to negotiate a lasting peace agreement. The creation of a genuinely inclusive transitional government, accountable to the Sudanese people, is essential to address the root causes of the conflict and prevent a relapse into violence. According to projections by the World Bank, without significant investment in rebuilding Sudan’s economy and social infrastructure, the country risks becoming a protracted humanitarian disaster and a haven for extremist groups. “The situation in Sudan represents not just a local crisis, but a symptom of a broader trend of state failure and regional instability,” warns Dr. Jonathan Davies, Head of the Africa Programme at Chatham House. “Failure to address the underlying drivers of the conflict – including ethnic divisions, political exclusion, and the influence of external actors – will have profound consequences for the entire Horn of Africa.”
The United Kingdom, through its £5 million commitment, represents a crucial initial step. However, sustained diplomatic pressure, targeted sanctions, and robust humanitarian assistance are all indispensable in addressing this unfolding tragedy. The coming months will be a critical test of global leadership and a powerful demonstration of the world’s commitment to upholding human rights and promoting stability in a region facing a profoundly uncertain future.