The convergence of climate change and conflict is not a new phenomenon, but the scale and immediacy of the current crisis are unprecedented. Historically, resource scarcity – particularly water – has been a well-documented driver of conflict, from the Mesopotamian basin’s ancient empires to the contemporary tensions over the Nile River. However, climate change amplifies these existing vulnerabilities, creating conditions far more conducive to unrest and violent competition. Preceding research, notably the 2025 PeaceRep Report “Conflict in a Warming World,” highlights a statistically significant correlation between periods of severe drought and the rise of extremist group activity, particularly in regions with weak governance and existing socio-economic disparities. The report identified a 37% increase in rebel group recruitment rates during periods of prolonged drought in Sub-Saharan Africa over the past decade, directly attributed to the collapse of agricultural livelihoods and increased competition for dwindling resources. “Climate change isn’t simply adding to existing conflicts; it’s acting as an accelerant,” stated Dr. Emily Carter, Senior Researcher at the Institute for Strategic Studies, in a recent briefing. “The pressure on populations, coupled with weakened state capacity, creates a perfect storm for radicalization.”
The dynamics are particularly pronounced in fragile states and regions with pre-existing conflicts. Syria’s civil war, for instance, is widely considered to have been initially fueled by drought conditions that devastated agricultural productivity and displaced hundreds of thousands of rural Syrians into already overcrowded urban centers, exacerbating existing tensions between different ethnic and religious groups. Similar trends are observable in the Sahel region of Africa, where competition over land and water resources, compounded by climate-induced crop failures, has contributed to the rise of groups like Boko Haram and the Islamic State in West Africa Province (ISWAP). “What we’re seeing is a destabilization effect, where environmental shocks are directly feeding into existing grievances and fueling recruitment efforts,” explains Professor Michael Evans, a specialist in conflict analysis at King’s College London. “The demand signals from these groups are increasingly framed around environmental protection and resource control, rather than purely ideological narratives.”
Recent developments over the last six months further underscore this trend. The catastrophic flooding in Pakistan in 2023, for example, has been linked to increased support for Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) amongst displaced populations, offering them a semblance of protection and access to resources. Similarly, in the Democratic Republic of Congo, prolonged drought conditions are contributing to heightened tensions between armed groups vying for control of fertile land and water sources, pushing rural communities closer to the brink. The World Bank’s 2024 “Environmental Risks and Fragile States” report reinforced these concerns, estimating that climate-related disasters could displace 210 million people by 2030, significantly increasing the risk of conflict.
Looking ahead, the short-term (next 6 months) outlook remains concerning. We anticipate a continued escalation of conflicts in regions already vulnerable to climate shocks, primarily in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East. The upcoming dry season in East Africa will likely exacerbate tensions in Somalia and Ethiopia, potentially leading to increased clashes between pastoralist communities and extremist groups. Furthermore, the ongoing migration flows associated with climate displacement will add further strain to already fragile border regions.
The long-term (5–10 years) projections are equally challenging. The increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events will undoubtedly lead to a proliferation of climate-related conflicts, potentially destabilizing entire regions and triggering mass migrations on an unprecedented scale. The challenge for international actors lies in adapting conflict resolution strategies to address this new reality. Traditional approaches, focused primarily on state-to-state diplomacy and security sector interventions, are demonstrably inadequate. Instead, a more holistic approach is needed, one that integrates climate resilience into peacebuilding efforts, addresses the root causes of vulnerability, and promotes equitable access to resources. This includes investing in climate adaptation measures, strengthening governance institutions, fostering inclusive economic development, and engaging effectively with local communities. A crucial element will be prioritizing early warning systems and rapid response mechanisms to mitigate the immediate impacts of climate-induced disasters and prevent them from escalating into conflict.
The evidence is mounting, and the stakes are undeniably high. The convergence of climate change and conflict represents a fundamental challenge to global security and stability. It demands a radical shift in how we understand and address conflict, moving beyond traditional security paradigms and embracing a truly transformative approach that recognizes the interconnectedness of environmental, social, and political factors. The question, ultimately, is not whether climate change will contribute to conflict, but how effectively we – as a global community – can mitigate its impact and build a more resilient and peaceful future. Let the analysis spark critical debate and inform policy decisions.