The acquisition of conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines by Australia through the AUKUS partnership is triggering a complex, multi-layered framework of international oversight, primarily driven by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). Recent communications from Australian officials indicate a significant focus on establishing a robust, verifiable process to address proliferation concerns surrounding the program, alongside an expansion of the trilateral collaboration between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Australia’s commitment to acquiring these submarines—anticipated to commence in the early 2030s—has necessitated a formal arrangement under Article 14 of its Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement (CSA) with the IAEA. This arrangement, currently under negotiation, aims to facilitate verification activities and establish a “material balance area” within Australia to monitor nuclear material. According to statements released in late 2023, the primary goal is to ensure “the highest non-proliferation standard” and enable continued IAEA verification of no nuclear material diversion, misuse, or undeclared activities. “The Agency will be able to continue verifying…,” stated an Australian official, highlighting the centrality of IAEA scrutiny. This echoes a global trend where advanced military technologies necessitate enhanced international safeguards.
Historical Context & Stakeholders: The AUKUS agreement represents a culmination of decades of evolving strategic partnerships. The NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty), signed in 1968, established the framework for controlling nuclear weapons, while the South Pacific Nuclear Free Zone Treaty and its Protocols, signed in 1982, reflect Australia’s longstanding commitment to regional security. The key stakeholders include: Australia (seeking a credible deterrent); the United Kingdom (providing crucial technological expertise and support); the United States (a foundational partner and supplier); and the IAEA (responsible for global nuclear safeguards). The British government’s recent “Geelong Treaty,” signed on 26 July 2025, significantly expands this collaboration, detailing a bespoke agreement for the design, build, operation and disposal of SSN-AUKUS submarines and future port visits.
Recent Developments & Trilateral Expansion: The signing of the Geelong Treaty marks a critical juncture. It expands beyond the initial trilateral ANNPA, which entered into force in January 2023, and will underpin UK-Australia collaboration on the development of the SSN-AUKUS submarine class. This includes planned port visits by UK-operated nuclear submarines to Western Australia, aligning with AUKUS’s phased approach. “It is intended to complement and operate alongside the ANNPA,” explained a UK representative. This signifies a more integrated and long-term partnership, moving beyond purely technical agreements towards operational integration. The agreement underscores a commitment to consistent, verifiable safeguards as the program progresses.
IAEA Engagement & Future Outlook: The IAEA’s continued engagement is paramount. The organization’s Director General is expected to regularly report to the Board on naval nuclear propulsion programs, facilitating technically focused discussions. “We welcome technically focused discussions at the Board,” an Australian official stated, emphasizing the value of this ongoing dialogue. Experts at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace have noted that the IAEA’s role is “critical to maintaining international confidence” in the program. Looking ahead, the next six months will likely see continued negotiations regarding the finalized Article 14 arrangement, along with further technical exchanges between Australia, the UK, and the IAEA. Long-term, the AUKUS naval nuclear propulsion accord could solidify Australia’s strategic position while presenting new challenges for international non-proliferation efforts. The success of this endeavor hinges on the sustained commitment to transparency and a robust, verifiable framework, as highlighted by the Carnegie Endowment’s analysis. “Maintaining international confidence will be crucial,” explained Dr. Emily Harding, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment.