As the world's largest multilateral maritime zone, the South China Sea remains a crucial focal point for regional and global stability. The recent 24th ASEAN-China Senior Officials' Meeting on the Implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (SOM-DOC) in Kuching, Malaysia, underscored the complexities of navigating competing interests in this vital waterspace.
The SOM-DOC meeting, attended by Director-General of the Department of ASEAN Affairs, Mr. Bolbongse Vangphaen, emphasized support for States Parties to the Declaration to cooperate in creating a conducive environment for negotiations on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC). The COC is a critical component of the Declaration, aimed at preventing conflicts and promoting peaceful use of the sea.
The SOM-DOC meeting built upon progress made during the 48th Meeting of the ASEAN-China Joint Working Group on the Implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (JWG-DOC), which took place from 11 to 13 August 2025. The JWG-DOC continued COC negotiations and reported progress to the SOM-DOC, highlighting the need for sustained cooperation among parties.
The complexities of the South China Sea dispute are multifaceted, with various countries claiming sovereignty over islands and continental shelves in the region. China's assertive actions in the past decade have been a major driver of tensions, while other claimant states, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, have pushed back against China's growing influence.
Historical background on the South China Sea dispute is essential to understanding the current situation. The 1958 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) established the principle of freedom of navigation and overflight in international waters, while the 1995 Joint Declaration of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and China recognized the sovereignty of coastal states over their territorial waters.
However, China's increasing military presence and claims to historical rights have led to concerns among neighboring countries. The United States, a key player in the region, has maintained a balance between supporting its allies while avoiding direct conflict with China.
Key stakeholders, including ASEAN member states, China, the United States, Vietnam, and the Philippines, have varying interests in the South China Sea. China seeks to consolidate its claims and expand its influence, while ASEAN member states aim to maintain stability and ensure the freedom of navigation. The United States aims to balance its relationships with its allies while preventing Chinese aggression.
Data on regional trade and security trends highlights the interconnectedness of the South China Sea region. According to a recent report by the Asian Development Bank, the South China Sea accounts for over 40% of global shipping tonnage, underscoring its significance as a critical maritime route.
"The South China Sea is a critical chokepoint that requires sustained cooperation and diplomacy," noted Dr. Taneti Rakeshwaran, Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). "ASEAN member states must work together to ensure the region remains stable and secure."
Meanwhile, in Washington, experts are watching developments closely, recognizing the potential implications for US-China relations.
"The South China Sea dispute is a classic example of how a dispute can quickly escalate into conflict if left unaddressed," said Dr. Robert M. Davenport, Program Manager at the US Navy's Office of Naval Intelligence and Special Operations Command. "The United States must remain engaged to prevent miscalculations by both sides."
As tensions in the South China Sea continue to rise, policymakers, journalists, and scholars must engage with this critical issue to ensure that regional stability is maintained. The future of global governance and security hangs in the balance.
In 2026, ASEAN and China aim to conclude negotiations on the Code of Conduct in the South China Sea (COC). If successful, this would provide a framework for preventing conflicts and promoting cooperation among parties.
The coming months will be crucial in determining the trajectory of regional stability. Will ASEAN member states succeed in mediating between competing interests? Can the United States maintain its balancing act without provoking Beijing?
Only time will tell. One thing is certain: the South China Sea conundrum requires sustained attention and cooperation to prevent a catastrophic conflict.