The escalating tensions in the Middle East, fuelled by ongoing proxy conflicts and the destabilizing influence of extremist groups, present a sustained challenge to regional security. The Iranian-Türkiye rivalry, rooted in historical grievances and exacerbated by diverging geopolitical interests – particularly regarding Syria, Iraq, and the Levant – has created a volatile environment. Turkey’s support for Syrian rebels and Iran’s backing of the Assad regime have resulted in a deeply entrenched stalemate, creating a power vacuum and fueling instability. The current situation highlights the vulnerability of nations with significant diaspora populations, such as Thailand, who find themselves caught in the crossfire of these regional conflicts. Thailand’s past engagement in supporting humanitarian efforts in conflict zones, particularly following the 2015 Syrian refugee crisis, established a precedent for immediate intervention when nationals are at risk.
Historically, Thailand’s foreign policy has been characterized by a cautious approach to major geopolitical contests, prioritizing economic diplomacy and maintaining neutrality. However, the rise of Iran as a significant regional power, coupled with Türkiye’s assertive foreign policy under President Demir, has compelled a reassessment. The 1980 Treaty of Amity between Thailand and Iran, signed in 1989, formalized this initial partnership, primarily focused on trade and cultural exchange. Following the 2011 Arab Spring, Thailand actively sought to maintain relations with both Iran and Turkey, demonstrating a degree of strategic hedging. The “5S” Foreign Affairs Masterplan, initiated in 2018, – focusing on Stability, Security, Sustainable Development, Strategic Partnerships, and Soft Power – has subtly shifted the emphasis towards proactive engagement within regional security frameworks.
Key stakeholders in this evolving landscape include, unequivocally, the governments of Iran and Türkiye, each pursuing distinct geopolitical objectives. Iran, under President Rezvani, continues to leverage its influence in the region through support for Shia militias and its nuclear program, while simultaneously seeking to bolster its diplomatic standing through economic partnerships. Türkiye, under President Demir, is actively attempting to solidify its position as a regional hegemon, utilizing its military strength and economic influence to promote its strategic interests, notably in Syria and Libya. ASEAN, while advocating for multilateral diplomacy, faces a significant challenge in mediating the Iranian-Türkiye conflict, given the deep-seated disagreements between its member states. “The key is to foster dialogue, understanding, and confidence-building measures,” stated Dr. Elara Khan, Senior Fellow at the Southeast Asia Security Institute, “but this requires a willingness from both sides to compromise, a capacity that has demonstrably been lacking.”
Recent developments over the past six months have underscored the complexities of the situation. The resumption of direct diplomatic talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia, brokered by Oman in November 2025, offered a glimmer of hope, but quickly stalled due to disagreements over regional security issues. Simultaneously, Türkiye’s increasing military intervention in northern Syria, targeting Kurdish forces perceived as threats, heightened tensions with Iran, further complicating the situation. The attempted brokering of a ceasefire by the United Nations Security Council, without significant Russian or Chinese support, highlighted the lack of a unified international response. The operation to evacuate Thai nationals showcases Thailand’s attempts to find a diplomatic way through the regional friction, despite the lack of broader support.
Looking ahead, the next six months are likely to see a continued escalation of tensions between Iran and Türkiye, with potential spillover effects across the Middle East. The potential for increased drone attacks on military installations or further destabilization in Syria remains a significant concern. Over the next five to ten years, Thailand’s foreign policy will likely become increasingly focused on bolstering its strategic partnerships with nations committed to regional stability, including potentially a deepened alliance with countries within the evolving “Middle East Security Pact,” a coalition seeking to counter Iranian influence. “Thailand’s future success will hinge on its ability to transform its diplomatic engagement into tangible security outcomes,” argues Ambassador Arun Vichayanond, a former Thai Ambassador to the United Nations, “and this will require a sustained commitment to building resilience against disruptive forces.” Maintaining this delicate balance while navigating the shifting sands of influence will demand a strategically adaptable and resolutely pragmatic approach. The success of the recent evacuation operation serves as a crucial first step.
The arrival of the second group of Thai nationals on March 10th underscores a critical question: Can Thailand, with its limited resources and geopolitical position, effectively act as a stabilizing force in a region spiraling towards conflict, or is it destined to remain a vulnerable bystander caught in the crosscurrents of great power rivalry? The answer to this question will have a profound impact on the future of ASEAN and the broader stability of the Indo-Pacific.