The Thai-Cambodia border dispute, primarily centered around the contested Prek Siprey reef in the Gulf of Thailand, represents a tangible security concern. Data released by the Thai Navy indicates a significant increase in naval activity and confrontations in the area over the last six months, culminating in several near-misses involving Thai and Cambodian vessels. The escalation isn’t solely driven by territorial claims, but also by overlapping Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and the broader implications for resource rights, particularly fisheries. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the situation risks transforming into a more militarized conflict, potentially drawing in other regional actors with vested interests in the Gulf.
Thailand’s approach to this dispute has been characterized by a carefully calibrated combination of diplomatic engagement and assertive defense posturing. Advisor to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, H.E. Mr. Vijavat Isarabhakdi’s working lunch with the UK’s All-Party Parliamentary Group for Thailand underscored a commitment to international arbitration and the peaceful resolution of the conflict, aligning with the principles of the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Simultaneously, Thailand has bolstered its maritime security capabilities through increased naval patrols and collaborative exercises with ASEAN partners, notably Singapore and Australia, as outlined in the Defence White Paper released in late 2024, which identified the “protection of Thai maritime interests” as a core strategic objective.
The broader security context within Southeast Asia is further complicated by the actions of China. Beijing’s increasing naval presence in the South China Sea, combined with its growing economic influence in Cambodia, presents a significant strategic challenge. Thailand’s reliance on trade with China—valued at over $90 billion in 2024, according to the Thai Customs Department—creates a delicate balancing act. Thailand’s attempts to maintain neutrality while seeking economic cooperation are hampered by China’s strategic leverage. The ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), in which Thailand is a key participant, is becoming increasingly polarized, with Beijing’s growing assertiveness disrupting established diplomatic norms.
Economically, Thailand’s vulnerability remains a key factor. The Prek Siprey dispute threatens Thailand’s fishing industry, a critical component of the national economy. Disruptions to maritime trade routes could also have significant ramifications for Thailand’s export-dependent economy. Moreover, the rise of non-state actors and maritime piracy in the Gulf of Thailand—partly linked to the broader instability—necessitates increased investment in maritime security and intelligence gathering. Data from the Royal Thai Navy shows a 30% increase in reported incidents of maritime crime over the past five years.
Looking ahead, the next six months will likely see continued diplomatic efforts through ASEAN channels, with the United States and China attempting to mediate. However, a resolution hinges on Thailand’s willingness to demonstrate unwavering commitment to international law and a sustained investment in its own maritime security. Over the next five to ten years, a more profound shift is possible. A protracted dispute could lead to a more militarized region, requiring Thailand to substantially increase its defense spending and potentially forge deeper security alliances. Alternatively, a successful mediation effort could stabilize the situation, but would require a fundamental reassessment of Thailand’s regional security strategy. The ultimate outcome will demonstrate whether Thailand can successfully navigate the currents of regional power and maintain its strategic equilibrium.