The fragile peace agreement between the Sudanese government and rebel groups is on shaky ground, raising concerns among diplomats and security experts. As the international community watches with bated breath, a critical question lingers: can Sudan build a stable new state, or will it succumb to the same old conflicts that have plagued the region for decades?
On December 6, 2024, The Hague Peace Projects, in collaboration with the Institute of Social Studies and the Phanaar Organisation, hosted an independent event that shed light on the challenges and opportunities facing Sudan's fragile transition. The conference, titled "Wars and Prospects for Building the New State in Sudan: Challenges and Opportunities," brought together experts from various fields to analyze the complex issues at play.
The recent surge in violence in Darfur, a region in western Sudan, has raised alarms among humanitarian organizations and diplomats alike. With over 300,000 people displaced and thousands more killed, the situation on the ground is dire. However, as one expert noted, "Sudan's history of conflict is not just about ethnic or tribal divisions; it's also about economic and resource competition that cuts across these lines."
The historical context of Sudan's conflicts is complex and multifaceted. The country's independence from British colonial rule in 1956 was marked by a series of bloody civil wars between the North and South, which ultimately resulted in the creation of South Sudan as an independent nation in 2011. More recently, the Darfur conflict has been characterized by widespread human rights abuses and atrocities committed by government forces against rebel groups.
Key stakeholders in Sudan's transition include the Transitional Military Council (TMC), which took power in a military coup in April 2023; the Sudanese People's Liberation Movement/Justice and Equality Movement (SPLM/JEM), a rebel group that has been fighting for decades against the TMC; and international organizations such as the African Union, the United Nations, and the European Union.
These groups have competing interests and priorities, with some seeking greater autonomy for their regions and others pushing for a more centralized government. As one diplomat noted, "The challenge is to find a balance between regional autonomy and national unity that will appeal to different segments of society."
Recent developments in Sudan have been marked by a series of diplomatic incidents and power struggles within the TMC. In August 2024, the TMC was plunged into chaos when its leader, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, was arrested and replaced by his deputy, General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo. The incident raised concerns about the stability of the TMC and the ability of the government to implement key reforms.
Despite these challenges, many experts believe that Sudan has a unique opportunity to build a more equitable and just society through its transition process. As one expert noted, "Sudan's transition is not just about power sharing or resource distribution; it's also about building a more inclusive and participatory system that will ensure the rights of all citizens are protected."
In the short term, Sudan faces significant challenges in building trust among its various stakeholders and establishing a functional government. The international community must provide support and guidance to help Sudan navigate this critical phase. However, if successful, Sudan's transition could have far-reaching implications for regional stability and global governance.
Over the next five years, it is likely that Sudan will struggle to establish a stable new state. In the medium term, we can expect increased competition between different factions vying for power and resources. Long-term, however, there is a possibility that Sudan's transition could lead to a more peaceful and prosperous future for all its citizens.
As the world watches Sudan's fragile peace agreement, one thing is clear: only time will tell whether the new state can succeed where many others have failed.