Indonesia’s renewed focus on deepening its strategic partnership with China represents a significant, and somewhat perplexing, development within Southeast Asia’s geopolitical landscape. Recent high-level engagements, culminating in a working visit by Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto to Beijing in September 2023, highlight a deliberate recalibration of Jakarta’s foreign policy – one that simultaneously aligns with regional norms and challenges the traditional dominance of established powers, particularly the United States. This shift is driven by a complex interplay of economic imperatives, security concerns, and a growing recognition of Indonesia’s role as a vital voice for the Global South. Understanding the motivations and potential consequences of this realignment is crucial for assessing the future stability of the Indo-Pacific region.
The intensification of Indonesia-China relations follows a decade of cautious engagement. Initially, Indonesia, a founding member of ASEAN, adhered to a policy of “strategic autonomy,” prioritizing bilateral relationships with countries like Australia and India, largely due to security concerns regarding China’s assertive behavior in the South China Sea. However, in recent years, economic considerations – specifically China’s vast investment opportunities and trade partnerships – have gradually shifted the balance. Indonesia’s burgeoning economy, heavily reliant on exports and infrastructure development, presents a significant market for Chinese goods and services, and China has become a dominant investor in Indonesia’s ambitious infrastructure projects.
“Indonesia’s decision to strategically partner with China reflects a pragmatic assessment of its economic and security interests,” stated Dr. James Belden, Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), during a recent briefing. “The economic benefits alone are substantial, but it’s also a recognition that China is a powerful force in the region, and engaging with them on terms beneficial to Indonesia is a necessary step.” Data from the Indonesian Central Bureau of Statistics indicates that China surpassed Japan as Indonesia’s largest trading partner in 2022, a trend that has continued to accelerate. Furthermore, Chinese investments in sectors like nickel mining (a critical component of electric vehicle batteries) and port development have significantly boosted Indonesia’s economic growth.
Beyond economics, Indonesia’s security considerations contribute significantly to this strategic alignment. The South China Sea dispute remains a core concern, and Indonesia, like many Southeast Asian nations, has refrained from taking a publicly adversarial stance toward China. Instead, Jakarta has pursued a diplomatic strategy of maintaining open channels of communication with Beijing, seeking to peacefully resolve territorial issues. The event attended by President Prabowo, commemorating China’s victory in World War II and the World Anti-Fascist War, further underscored this alignment, framing the relationship within a historical context of solidarity against colonialism and authoritarianism. The presence of 25 Heads of State and Government at the commemoration highlights the breadth of the diplomatic effort.
However, the deepening of the Indonesia-China relationship is not without potential challenges. The United States, Australia, and other Western powers view Indonesia’s strategic alignment with China with increasing concern, perceiving it as a weakening of the existing security architecture in the Indo-Pacific. The US has been actively seeking to bolster Indonesia’s defense capabilities and strengthen its security ties, offering military assistance and participating in joint military exercises. “Maintaining a balance between Indonesia’s economic partnership with China and its security ties with the United States is a delicate act,” noted Dr. Evelyn Williamson, a Research Fellow specializing in Southeast Asian Security at the ISEAS-Yusuf Ishak Institute. “Indonesia faces a test of its ability to navigate these competing interests while upholding its sovereignty and regional stability.”
Looking ahead, the next six months will likely see increased collaboration between the two countries across a range of sectors, including trade, investment, and infrastructure. Key milestones include the anticipated completion of several major infrastructure projects funded by Chinese investment, and continued negotiations on a comprehensive free trade agreement. Over the next five to ten years, the relationship is poised to become even more central to the geopolitical dynamics of the Indo-Pacific. Indonesia’s growing economic influence, coupled with China’s ongoing rise as a global superpower, could transform the region’s economic and political order.
The 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations between Indonesia and China in 2025 will be a pivotal moment, likely serving as an opportunity to further consolidate the strategic partnership and reaffirm Indonesia’s commitment to multilateralism – albeit one increasingly defined within the parameters of its evolving relationship with Beijing. The trajectory of this relationship will undoubtedly have a profound impact on regional stability and the future of the Indo-Pacific. Ultimately, the success of this strategic realignment hinges on Indonesia’s ability to maintain a nuanced and adaptable approach, balancing its economic interests with its broader security considerations, and continuing to advocate for a more inclusive and equitable international order. The question remains: can Indonesia effectively leverage its position as a rising global power to promote its own interests while simultaneously contributing to a more stable and just world?