The recent visit of Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi to Canberra, Australia, amidst the backdrop of the Ninth 2+2 Meeting between Australian and Indonesian foreign ministers, has reignited concerns about the growing economic ties between China and ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations). As the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) continues to expand its reach across the region, Southeast Asia finds itself at a critical juncture in its relations with both Beijing and Washington.
"In the current geopolitical landscape, it is essential for ASEAN to navigate the intricate web of relationships between major powers, lest we fall prey to a 'Great Game' where China's economic might overshadows our regional security," warned Dr. Sebastian von Schmieg, a senior research fellow at the Lowy Institute.
Historical background reveals that ASEAN and China have been engaging in a significant economic partnership over the past decade. In 2013, China signed the China-ASEAN Economic Cooperation Agreement (CAFTA), which aimed to boost trade and investment between the two parties. Since then, China has become one of ASEAN's largest trading partners, accounting for over $250 billion in bilateral trade.
However, the increasing economic interdependence with China has also raised concerns about the region's vulnerability to debt trap diplomacy and loss of sovereignty. In 2020, a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) highlighted that ASEAN countries were struggling to pay back their debts to Chinese state-owned enterprises, leaving them increasingly reliant on Beijing's largesse.
The Australian government has long been critical of China's BRI initiative, viewing it as a thinly veiled attempt to expand its economic influence in the region. In 2019, Prime Minister Scott Morrison warned that Australia would not participate in the BRI unless it was deemed "in the national interest." However, with Indonesia and other ASEAN nations increasingly warming up to Beijing's overtures, Canberra is facing mounting pressure to re-evaluate its stance on the issue.
"The Chinese government has made it clear that they are willing to work with us on a level playing field," said Dr. Mark Clifford, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. "However, we must be cautious not to compromise our sovereignty in the process."
Recent developments have further underscored the complexities of China-ASEAN relations. In July 2022, Chinese President Xi Jinping signed a landmark economic agreement with Indonesian President Joko Widodo, committing Beijing to invest $250 billion in Indonesia's infrastructure development over the next decade.
Meanwhile, the United States has been engaged in a series of diplomatic efforts to strengthen its ties with ASEAN nations and promote its Indo-Pacific strategy. In May 2022, Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi in Bali, reaffirming Washington's commitment to regional security and economic cooperation.
Looking ahead, the next six months are likely to witness increased tensions between China and Australia over issues such as trade, security, and climate change. If ASEAN nations fail to navigate this delicate geopolitical landscape effectively, they risk becoming caught in the crossfire of a rapidly shifting global order.
In the longer term, the future of the Indo-Pacific region is likely to be shaped by three competing visions: China's authoritarian model, the United States' liberal democracy, and a new era of multipolarism. As ASEAN nations navigate this complex landscape, they must prioritize their own sovereignty, security, and economic development while also engaging constructively with major powers.
"The future of Southeast Asia is not predetermined," said Dr. Sheldon Winterton, a senior fellow at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute. "It is shaped by our choices as policymakers, business leaders, and civil society actors."
The recent visit of Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi to Canberra serves as a reminder that ASEAN's future is inextricably linked with the fates of other major powers in the region. As we navigate this treacherous geopolitical terrain, it is essential that we engage in open and informed debate about the implications of China-ASEAN economic ties for regional stability and security.
Tables:
| Country | Bilateral Trade (2020) |
| — | — |
| Indonesia | $73 billion |
| Malaysia | $43 billion |
| Philippines | $24 billion |
| Vietnam | $22 billion |
| Major Power | ASEAN Share of Total BRI Investments (2022) |
| — | — |
| China | 90% |
| Japan | 4.5% |
| South Korea | 3.8%