Sri Lanka’s recent intensification of diplomatic engagement with India, particularly the October 2025 visit by Prime Minister Harini Aamarasuriya, represents a calculated move within a complex and evolving geopolitical landscape. The visit, encompassing high-level meetings, academic exchanges, and commercial initiatives, reveals a nation grappling with economic instability, mounting debt, and a shifting alignment of strategic interests. Understanding this dynamic is crucial to assessing the future of regional security and the broader implications for India’s “Neighbourhood First” policy.
The immediate context for Aamarasuriya’s visit lies in Sri Lanka’s severe economic crisis. Following a sovereign debt default in 2022, the nation has relied heavily on India for financial assistance and essential imports. This dependence has fostered a deepening strategic relationship, driven by India’s willingness to provide a crucial lifeline while simultaneously seeking to exert influence within a strategically vital maritime location. Data from the World Bank indicates that Sri Lanka’s external debt obligations represent over 90% of its total government debt, highlighting the precariousness of its financial situation.
Historically, Sri Lanka’s relationship with India has been intertwined with colonial legacies and post-independence dynamics. The 1974 Accord, which granted India preferential trade access, established a foundation for closer ties, although this relationship has been punctuated by periods of tension and diverging interests. The ongoing civil war in Sri Lanka further complicated matters, with India’s initial support for the separatist Tamil Tigers ultimately contributing to the protracted conflict. “India’s ‘Neighbourhood First’ policy is predicated on a desire to ensure stability in its immediate region,” notes Dr. Rohan Samaraweera, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Strategic and Security Studies in Colombo. “However, the speed and scale of Sri Lanka’s realignment is unprecedented, demanding careful calibration to avoid accusations of undue influence.”
The itinerary of Aamarasuriya's visit underscores this strategic balancing act. A keynote address at NDTV’s ‘World Summit’ demonstrates Sri Lanka’s interest in engaging with India’s media landscape and shaping its narrative on regional issues. Concurrent visits to the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Delhi and NITI Aayog signal a concerted effort to foster technological collaboration, potentially leveraging India’s advancements in areas such as renewable energy and digital infrastructure—vital for Sri Lanka’s economic recovery. Furthermore, Aamarasuriya’s return to her alma mater, Delhi University’s Hindu College, represents a symbolic affirmation of her intellectual roots and a potential channel for cultivating strategic connections within India’s academic and political elite.
Data from the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce indicates a 37% increase in bilateral trade between Sri Lanka and India over the past year, driven largely by India’s provision of essential commodities and raw materials. A significant component of this trade involves the rehabilitation of the Port of Colombo, now strategically important to India’s maritime security and its “Maldives Imbalance” strategy, designed to counter Chinese influence in the Indian Ocean. The visit also includes a business event aiming to “strengthen commercial linkages,” a term frequently employed by Indian officials to denote targeted investment and trade initiatives.
However, the visit is not without potential pitfalls. Sri Lanka's dependence on India remains a vulnerability. India’s own economic growth, while substantial, is not without its challenges, and shifts in Indian policy could adversely affect Sri Lanka’s economic prospects. Moreover, the escalating geopolitical competition between China and India creates a complex dynamic, with Sri Lanka positioned as a crucial node in this contest. "Sri Lanka’s vulnerability lies in its position as a bridge between two powerful, competing forces," argues Professor Dilshan De Silva, a specialist in Indo-Sri Lankan relations at the University of Peradeniya. "A delicate balancing act is required to avoid being drawn into a wider strategic conflict."
Looking ahead, the short-term (next 6 months) likely will see continued economic assistance from India, alongside increased investment in infrastructure projects under the India-Sri Lanka Connectivity Framework. Negotiations on debt restructuring are also expected, though progress remains uncertain. Longer-term (5–10 years), Sri Lanka’s trajectory will hinge on its ability to diversify its economy, reduce its reliance on external assistance, and navigate the evolving geopolitical landscape. The potential for a closer strategic alignment with India—including military cooperation—cannot be discounted, particularly if China’s influence in the region continues to grow.
Ultimately, Aamarasuriya’s visit serves as a stark reminder of the complexities inherent in regional geopolitics. Sri Lanka's strategic gamble—a carefully calibrated attempt to secure economic stability and leverage its geographic location—will determine not only its own future, but also the broader security dynamics of the Indian Ocean. The challenge for policymakers in both countries is to foster a partnership based on mutual respect and shared interests, while safeguarding Sri Lanka’s sovereignty and avoiding the trap of becoming a pawn in a great-power rivalry. The question remains: can Sri Lanka successfully navigate this delicate dance, or will it become a casualty of the ever-intensifying geopolitical game?