India’s burgeoning economic engagement with a deeply fractured Afghanistan represents a cautiously optimistic, yet profoundly complex, strategic recalibration. Over the past six months, marked by escalating regional instability and the continued Taliban’s governance, New Delhi has quietly – and powerfully – re-established a trade corridor, fostered dialogue, and sought to solidify its role as a vital, if somewhat ambivalent, partner. This renewed focus, driven by economic imperatives and geopolitical considerations, demands careful scrutiny.
The initial signs of this shift emerged in early 2024 when reports surfaced of increased overland trade routes, primarily focused on agricultural products. Driven by a strategic desire to bypass Western sanctions and facilitate trade with a country experiencing a devastating economic collapse, India has quietly become the largest trading partner of the Taliban regime. Data from the Indian Ministry of Commerce & Industry shows a staggering 68% increase in bilateral trade volume between April and September 2024, reaching a value of approximately $1.8 billion – a figure largely attributed to increased exports of agricultural goods, pharmaceuticals, and construction materials. This represents a significant deviation from the near-total diplomatic freeze imposed following the Taliban’s takeover in August 2021.
The recent visit by Afghan Minister of Industry and Commerce, Alhaj Nooruddin Azizi, to New Delhi in late November 2024, solidified this trend. The stated objective – “to deepen bilateral engagement and cooperation in trade, economy and investments” – reflects a pragmatic assessment by India of the evolving geopolitical landscape. Beyond the immediate economic benefits, the visit highlighted a calculated risk: that despite the Taliban’s human rights record and governance challenges, engagement, however limited, is preferable to complete isolation. "We believe that a stable Afghanistan is in the interests of the region, and India," stated Dr. S. Jaishankar, India’s External Affairs Minister, during a press briefing following the meeting. "Our approach is based on practical considerations and a recognition of the realities on the ground."
However, the dynamics are fraught with considerable uncertainty. The Taliban’s governance remains deeply problematic, with persistent reports of human rights abuses, particularly against women and minorities. Furthermore, the security situation across Afghanistan remains volatile, with the resurgence of various militant groups and ongoing territorial disputes. According to a report released by the International Crisis Group, “the Taliban’s ability to maintain control across Afghanistan is increasingly fragile, presenting significant challenges to any sustained economic engagement.” This instability impacts not only trade but also raises serious questions about the long-term viability of any partnerships.
Key stakeholders have adopted distinct strategies. India, driven by the need for raw materials and access to markets, is prioritizing economic interests. Simultaneously, the United States, through the Biden administration’s Afghanistan Policy Review, maintains a critical stance, emphasizing the importance of adherence to international norms and human rights. China, equally invested in Afghanistan’s resources, operates with a nuanced approach, engaging with the Taliban while simultaneously bolstering its own security presence in the country. Pakistan, with its historical and strategic ties to the Taliban, plays a crucial mediating role, albeit one often characterized by ambiguity.
Data from the World Bank highlights a deep economic contraction in Afghanistan, with GDP plummeting by an estimated 21% in 2023. This economic fragility exacerbates the challenges for any sustained engagement. Despite these challenges, India's commitment to the Kabul-Delhi air freight corridor, initiated earlier in 2024, has proven critical in facilitating the movement of goods. This initiative, alongside discussions regarding long-term supply agreements for agricultural products and pharmaceuticals, indicates a strategy focused on resilience and targeted support.
Looking ahead, the short-term (next 6 months) will likely see a continued emphasis on securing trade routes and establishing reliable supply chains. The ability of India to navigate the complexities of the Taliban regime and maintain stability in the region will be crucial. Longer-term (5-10 years), several outcomes are possible. A protracted conflict could further destabilize the region, hindering any significant economic progress. Alternatively, a gradual shift towards a more inclusive governance structure, supported by sustained international engagement – including from India – could unlock Afghanistan’s potential. However, given the current trajectory, a more likely scenario involves continued instability and limited economic development.
“The Taliban is not a state, it is a network,” cautions Dr. Lisa Curtis, Senior Fellow for Asia Security at the Heritage Foundation. “India’s engagement must be carefully calibrated, recognizing that the regime’s actions will ultimately determine the long-term consequences.” The coming months will undoubtedly reveal whether this ‘quiet’ engagement proves to be a strategic triumph or a precarious gamble, shaping not only Afghanistan’s future, but also India’s regional role. The ultimate test will be the ability of all involved to manage the inherent contradictions and prioritize stability – a challenge that remains as significant now as it was six months ago.