Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent, extended visit to India, culminating in a series of high-level meetings and strategic engagements, represents a deliberate and arguably urgent recalibration of relationships within the rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape of the Arctic and beyond. The deepening collaboration between these two nations, particularly concerning critical minerals, energy security, and, increasingly, maritime domain awareness, signals a significant shift in the traditional dynamics of the North Atlantic alliance and underscores a growing, albeit complex, strategic alignment driven by shared security concerns.
The escalating competition for resources and influence in the Arctic has long been a critical factor driving international relations. Historically, the region, largely defined by the Arctic Treaty of 1958 – a landmark agreement emphasizing peaceful cooperation and prohibiting military activities – has been characterized by a consensus-based approach to governance. However, the dramatic increases in global demand for resources, coupled with the accelerating effects of climate change, are fundamentally altering the Arctic’s equilibrium. Melting sea ice is opening up access to previously unreachable deposits of rare earth minerals, petroleum reserves, and fisheries, attracting the attention of nations with burgeoning economies – including India – and intensifying geopolitical competition. India’s interest in the Arctic isn’t solely driven by resource extraction; it’s increasingly focused on securing strategic shipping routes, bolstering its naval capabilities, and accessing crucial supply chains.
Stakeholders involved in this evolving dynamic are numerous and possess vastly different motivations. Canada, traditionally a steadfast member of NATO, faces the challenge of balancing its longstanding security commitments with the imperative to secure its northern territory and foster economic opportunities. India, a rising global power, is actively diversifying its energy sources and establishing a robust presence in the Arctic to ensure access to resources and to project its influence in a region of increasing strategic importance. The United States, as the Arctic’s largest landmass holder and a key NATO partner, maintains a considerable military and intelligence presence in the region, often fostering tensions with other actors. Russia, with the largest Arctic coastline and a history of asserting sovereignty, remains a significant, though often unpredictable, factor. The Arctic Council, a forum for high-level cooperation among Arctic states and other stakeholders, is experiencing increasing challenges in maintaining consensus as divergent national interests come into play. "The Arctic is no longer solely a matter of scientific inquiry,” stated Dr. Emily Carter, Senior Fellow at the Arctic Institute, "it’s fundamentally becoming a zone of strategic competition.”
Data from the U.S. Geological Survey indicates that the Arctic holds an estimated 13% of the world’s remaining mineral resources, including significant deposits of rare earth elements vital for electric vehicle production and renewable energy technologies. India’s investments in critical minerals extraction and processing, coupled with its growing maritime capabilities, represent a calculated move to reduce its dependence on traditional supply chains. According to a recent report by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, India’s projected imports of critical minerals could exceed $100 billion by 2030, with the Arctic potentially playing a crucial role in meeting this demand. Furthermore, naval analysis indicates a growing Indian Navy presence in the Arctic, focused primarily on research, surveillance, and strategic positioning. The Indian Navy has conducted several exercises in the region in recent years, testing its operational capabilities and signaling its intent to secure a greater role in Arctic affairs.
Recent developments over the past six months highlight the accelerating pace of this strategic realignment. In December 2025, India conducted a joint naval exercise with the United Kingdom off the coast of Greenland, a move widely interpreted as a demonstration of strategic cooperation and a signal of potential alignment with Western interests in the Arctic. Simultaneously, Canadian and Indian defense officials engaged in a series of consultations regarding maritime domain awareness and intelligence sharing, further solidifying the nascent partnership. Additionally, the two nations signed a memorandum of understanding outlining collaborative research programs focused on climate change adaptation and Arctic environmental monitoring, a pragmatic response to the region's escalating vulnerabilities.
Looking forward, the next 6-12 months will likely see continued deepening of this strategic relationship, with increased joint naval patrols, expanded research collaborations, and potentially, further investment in critical mineral extraction projects. Over the 5-10 year horizon, the Arctic’s transformation will likely result in a more multipolar security architecture, with Canada and India playing increasingly prominent roles alongside the United States, Russia, and potentially, other nations seeking access to the region’s resources and strategic advantages. "The Arctic is becoming the new frontier for great power competition," argued Admiral James Stavridis, former Supreme Allied Commander of the NATO alliance, during a recent lecture at Stanford University. “This realignment will fundamentally reshape the dynamics of global security and demand a renewed commitment to strategic foresight and diplomatic engagement.” The potential for miscalculation or escalation remains a significant concern, particularly given Russia’s continued assertiveness in the region. Maintaining open communication channels and fostering a framework for mutually beneficial cooperation will be paramount to navigating the challenges and preventing unintended consequences. The shift in the Arctic’s balance represents a profound and irreversible trend, demanding careful consideration and proactive engagement from all stakeholders.