India’s engagement with Mongolia has steadily grown over the past two decades, now representing a significant, albeit understated, element of New Delhi’s broader Eurasian strategy. The upcoming State Visit of Mongolian President Khurelsukh Ukhnaa to India, scheduled for October 13-16, 2025, underscores this evolving relationship and reflects a broader realignment of power dynamics across the continent. The visit, coinciding with the 70th anniversary of diplomatic ties, presents a crucial moment to assess the trajectory of this partnership and its implications for regional stability – a partnership increasingly vital amid intensifying geopolitical competition.
The foundation of India-Mongolia relations rests upon a shared commitment to democratic values and a history of mutual support. Established in 1955, the relationship has matured beyond simple goodwill, incorporating practical cooperation across several domains. Currently, the strategic partnership is bolstered by a 2015 Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) outlining areas of collaboration, including defence, energy, and trade. India’s economic assistance to Mongolia, particularly in sectors like infrastructure and digital technology, has been instrumental in the country’s development. According to a 2023 report by the Indian Council for Foreign Relations, “India’s approach to Mongolia is predicated on a long-term, developmental partnership, emphasizing capacity building and sustainable economic growth.”
The Current Context – A Shifting Balance of Power
Over the past six months, several factors have amplified the strategic importance of this relationship. Russia’s continued military operations in Ukraine have prompted a reassessment of security alignments across Central Asia, with Mongolia, geographically positioned between Russia and China, facing a complex dilemma. While Mongolia maintains a non-aligned stance, its defense cooperation with Russia – including military training and equipment – has heightened Chinese concerns, further intensifying Beijing’s influence in the region. Furthermore, the burgeoning Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) has presented both opportunities and challenges for Mongolia. While Chinese investment in infrastructure projects, such as the Ulaanbaatar-Moscow railway, has boosted Mongolia’s economy, concerns remain about debt sustainability and potential Chinese dominance. “Mongolia’s reliance on Chinese financing presents a delicate balancing act,” noted Dr. Ariunbold Sukhbaatar, Senior Fellow at the Central Asia Institute, “The country must carefully navigate its strategic partnerships to preserve its sovereignty and economic autonomy.”
Key Stakeholders and Their Motivations
India’s strategic interest in Mongolia is multifaceted. Primarily, New Delhi seeks to diversify its energy sources, with Mongolia’s vast coal reserves and potential for renewable energy development offering a viable alternative to traditional Russian supplies. The Ulaanbaatar-Moscow railway, currently under construction, represents a critical component of this energy diversification strategy. Beyond energy, India is also interested in Mongolia’s mineral resources – particularly rare earth elements – and the country’s location as a gateway to Central Asia. India's engagement is further fueled by a desire to counter Russia’s influence in the region and to foster a stable, democratic neighbor. China, of course, represents the most significant counterweight. Beijing’s economic and political leverage in Mongolia is substantial, largely driven by trade and investment. China’s concerns extend to India’s growing engagement, viewing it as an attempt to undermine its regional influence. Russia, despite its current conflicts, retains considerable historical ties and continues to provide military assistance to Mongolia. The Mongolian Armed Forces receive training from Russian military instructors, and Russia remains a key supplier of military hardware.
The Visit’s Agenda and Potential Outcomes
The State Visit is expected to focus on expanding the existing framework of cooperation. Discussions will likely center on the Ulaanbaatar-Moscow railway, exploring ways to accelerate its completion and ensure its operational efficiency. Furthermore, the two leaders are anticipated to address concerns surrounding debt sustainability and explore mechanisms for managing Chinese investment. Trade and investment are also expected to be prominent topics, with India seeking to increase its exports to Mongolia and attract Mongolian investment in sectors like IT and renewable energy. A significant portion of the agenda will undoubtedly involve discussions surrounding regional security, particularly the evolving dynamics in Central Asia and the implications for Mongolia's defense posture. “The visit presents an opportunity for India to reiterate its commitment to Mongolia's security and stability, offering support for capacity building and promoting democratic governance,” stated a recent report by the Observer Research Foundation.
Short-Term Outlook (Next 6 Months)
In the immediate term, the visit is likely to yield incremental progress in the existing cooperation framework. We can anticipate increased dialogue between Indian and Mongolian officials regarding the Ulaanbaatar-Moscow railway and potential amendments to the 2015 MoU. India is expected to continue providing economic assistance to Mongolia, focusing on capacity building and infrastructure development. However, the underlying tensions between India and China will likely remain a persistent factor, potentially hindering deeper strategic alignment. The completion of the first phase of the railway is anticipated by the end of 2026, which will be a key milestone.
Long-Term Outlook (5-10 Years)
Over the longer term, the trajectory of the India-Mongolia relationship is uncertain. The success of the Ulaanbaatar-Moscow railway will be critical. If the railway delivers on its promise of improved connectivity and energy access, it could solidify the strategic partnership. However, sustained geopolitical tensions in the region, particularly the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and China’s growing influence, could significantly disrupt this trajectory. “The long-term viability of the relationship hinges on Mongolia’s ability to navigate the complex geopolitical landscape and maintain a balanced approach to its strategic partnerships,” concluded Dr. Sukhbaatar. The potential for deeper defense cooperation, contingent on geopolitical developments, remains a key factor. India’s long-term commitment to Mongolia’s democratic development and economic diversification will also be a crucial determinant of the partnership’s success. The strategic balance in Central Asia will continue to shape this dynamic, demanding careful diplomacy and strategic foresight from all involved parties.