The protracted instability across the Sahel region—a swath of Africa stretching from Senegal to Sudan—represents a burgeoning threat to global security, demanding immediate, sustained attention. Recent events, primarily the accelerated French military withdrawal coupled with the ascendance of actors like Russia’s Wagner Group and the increasing influence of China, necessitate a reevaluation of existing alliances and strategic priorities. This shift isn’t merely a regional problem; it profoundly impacts counterterrorism efforts, exacerbates humanitarian crises, and destabilizes crucial trade routes, demanding a robust, multi-faceted response.
The situation in the Sahel has been building for over a decade, rooted in a complex confluence of factors including weak governance, ethnic tensions, climate change, and the proliferation of extremist groups like Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin (JNIM) and Ansarul Islam. France’s engagement, beginning with Operation Barkhane in 2013, aimed to counter these groups and promote stability, initially supported by a coalition of nations including the United Kingdom, Italy, and Belgium. However, mounting casualties, accusations of human rights abuses, and growing domestic opposition within France led to a rapid drawdown, culminating in the complete withdrawal of French forces by the end of 2023. Simultaneously, the Russian Wagner Group, operating with tacit approval from the Sudanese government, has expanded its presence, offering security services and exploiting local grievances, while China’s economic influence and security cooperation have grown substantially, particularly in infrastructure development and resource extraction.
The impact of the French withdrawal has been immediate and concerning. The security vacuum created has emboldened extremist groups, enabling them to seize territory, conduct attacks, and recruit new members. JNIM, for instance, has consolidated its control over significant portions of Mali and Niger, disrupting governance and hindering humanitarian access. The withdrawal also undermined French-backed government efforts to stabilize the region, further weakening already fragile state institutions. "The abrupt departure has removed a key counterweight to instability, creating an opportunity for actors with less regard for democratic norms," states Dr. Fatima Diallo, Senior Research Fellow at the Institute for Strategic Studies in Dakar, specializing in West African security.
Several key stakeholders are vying for influence in the Sahel. Niger, following a coup in July 2023, has increasingly aligned itself with Russia, signing agreements for security assistance and economic partnerships. Mali, similarly, maintains close ties with Moscow. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has attempted to exert pressure on the military juntas in both countries, advocating for the restoration of constitutional order, but faces significant resistance. China’s presence is notable, offering substantial investment in infrastructure and a growing security partnership with Mali, driven by strategic access to resources and geopolitical leverage. “China’s approach is fundamentally different; it’s about long-term economic engagement and influence, not immediate security interventions,” notes Professor Li Wei, a specialist in Sino-African relations at Tsinghua University.
Data compiled by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) reveals a dramatic increase in violent conflict across the Sahel since the French withdrawal. In the last six months alone, there has been a 47% rise in armed group activity, including attacks on military installations, civilian targets, and infrastructure. This has led to a surge in internally displaced persons and a humanitarian crisis, with millions of people in need of assistance. The collapse of agricultural production due to insecurity further exacerbates the situation, threatening food security and potentially triggering wider instability.
Looking ahead, the next six months will likely see continued consolidation of extremist group control, increased competition between external actors, and a worsening humanitarian situation. The possibility of a wider regional conflict remains a serious concern, potentially drawing in neighboring countries like Côte d'Ivoire and Burkina Faso. Long-term, the dynamics could lead to a fragmented Sahel, dominated by competing spheres of influence, with the potential for protracted instability and violence. The shift toward China’s involvement represents a significant alteration to the regional landscape, potentially diminishing the role of Western powers for decades.
Addressing this complex challenge demands a multi-pronged approach. Firstly, sustained ECOWAS pressure, coupled with targeted sanctions, remains crucial to encourage a return to constitutional order in Niger and Mali. Secondly, international financial assistance is urgently needed to support humanitarian efforts and bolster state capacity. Thirdly, a reassessment of counterterrorism strategies is required, moving beyond purely military interventions to focus on addressing the root causes of instability, including poverty, unemployment, and weak governance. Finally, a concerted diplomatic effort is necessary to prevent a broader regional conflict and to ensure that external actors operate within a framework of respect for international law and human rights. The future stability of the Sahel – and, by extension, portions of Europe – hinges on a pragmatic, coordinated, and ultimately, a reflective response to this shifting landscape.