The accelerating instability across the Sahel region presents a profoundly complex challenge to global security and requires a nuanced understanding of shifting alliances and the evolving dynamics of power. The recent withdrawal of French forces, coupled with the rise of both state and non-state actors, underscores a strategic realignment with potentially destabilizing consequences for European security and international efforts to combat terrorism and promote development. This reassessment of the region’s strategic landscape demands immediate attention and strategic foresight.
The roots of the current crisis are deeply embedded in decades of political instability, economic hardship, and weak governance across the Sahel – a vast swathe of Africa stretching from Senegal to Sudan. The 1960 independence of Mali, for example, marked the beginning of a trajectory characterized by coups, authoritarian rule, and persistent ethnic tensions. The 2012 Tuareg rebellion, fueled by grievances over marginalization and resource control, quickly spiraled into a full-scale civil war, opening the door for the expansion of extremist groups like al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and later, ISIS-affiliated groups. France, recognizing its strategic interests – primarily combating terrorism and securing its uranium supply – intervened in 2013, deploying Operation Barkhane, a multinational force primarily composed of French troops. This intervention, while achieving some tactical successes, proved increasingly controversial, accused of fueling local resentment and exacerbating existing conflicts.
Key Stakeholders and Motivations
Several key actors are now vying for influence in the Sahel, each driven by distinct motivations. France, having withdrawn its operational forces in late 2023, continues to maintain a diplomatic and intelligence presence, focused on supporting regional counterterrorism efforts and advocating for a coordinated approach. The European Union, through Operation Barkhane’s successor mission, EUMM Sahel, provides political and financial support, seeking to maintain stability and promote dialogue. Russia, through the Wagner Group, has aggressively expanded its footprint, offering security services and exploiting instability for strategic gain, often engaging in direct combat with extremist groups. The governments of Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, initially welcoming Russian support, have increasingly asserted their sovereignty and sought alternative partners, primarily China, which has offered significant investment and military assistance. Furthermore, regional powers like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates have stepped up their engagement, primarily focused on counterterrorism and development assistance. “The situation in the Sahel is a complex geopolitical chessboard,” explained Dr. Fatima Diallo, a specialist in African security at the Institute for Strategic Studies. “No single actor has a clear path to dominance; the competition for influence is intensifying, creating a volatile environment.”
Data from the International Crisis Group reveals a significant increase in armed group activity across the region over the past five years. In 2021, approximately 68% of the population lived within a 20 kilometer radius of an active conflict zone. Recent reports from the UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in the Central African Republic (MINUSCA) demonstrate a worrying trend of increased violence and displacement, highlighting the humanitarian crisis and further complicating stabilization efforts. The total number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the Sahel region is estimated to have reached over 2.8 million, according to UNHCR data released in December 2025. This displacement is not only exacerbating humanitarian needs but also providing fertile ground for recruitment by extremist groups.
Recent Developments (Past Six Months)
Over the last six months, the situation has deteriorated markedly. In November 2025, a coup in Niger ousted President Mohamed Bazoum, further destabilizing the region and creating a power vacuum exploited by Wagner Group. Subsequently, Burkina Faso and Mali followed suit, consolidating the influence of Russian-backed forces. France has reiterated its support for the constitutional order in Niger, but diplomatic efforts have largely stalled. The United States, while maintaining a limited counterterrorism presence, has prioritized engagement with regional governments to explore alternative security arrangements and counter Wagner Group’s growing influence. A key development has been the emergence of a "Sahel Alliance," involving Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, alongside support from Russia, representing a significant challenge to Western-led security initiatives. “The withdrawal of French forces has fundamentally altered the strategic calculus,” stated Professor Jean-Luc Dubois, a geopolitical analyst at Sciences Po, Paris. “It’s created a space for Russia to exert greater influence, but it’s also increased the risk of regional fragmentation and prolonged instability.”
Future Impact & Insight
Short-term (next 6 months) outcomes point toward further consolidation of Russian influence in the Sahel, potentially leading to a complete takeover of security responsibilities by Wagner Group and its affiliated forces. This would likely result in a surge in violence and human rights abuses, further exacerbating the humanitarian crisis. The European Union’s EUMM Sahel will likely face significant constraints in its ability to effectively monitor and mediate the situation. Long-term (5-10 years), the most likely scenario is a deeply fragmented Sahel region characterized by competing regional powers, widespread instability, and persistent terrorist threats. The proliferation of ungoverned spaces will create opportunities for transnational criminal networks and illicit trafficking. A complete collapse of state authority in some countries cannot be ruled out.
The shift in the Sahel highlights a fundamental challenge to Western foreign policy: the capacity to respond effectively to evolving geopolitical landscapes. The Sahel represents a potent example of how strategic withdrawal, while potentially justifiable on the basis of military overstretch, can inadvertently create conditions that amplify instability. The region’s future hangs precariously in the balance, demanding a comprehensive and coordinated international response – one that prioritizes addressing the root causes of conflict, promoting good governance, and fostering sustainable development. A critical question remains: can the international community effectively manage the consequences of this reshaping of the Sahel, or will it succumb to the rising tides of disorder? It is essential that policymakers and analysts engage in a sustained dialogue on the implications of this shifting sands, seeking solutions to this multifaceted crisis.