The erosion of French influence in the Sahel region presents a complex and potentially destabilizing force within Africa and the wider international order. Decades of engagement, initially framed as a guarantor of security and stability, have yielded mixed results, underscored by recent coups, escalating extremist violence, and increasingly strained diplomatic relations. Addressing this situation demands a nuanced understanding of historical context, evolving geopolitical dynamics, and the urgent need for sustainable solutions.
The Sahel, encompassing portions of Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Chad, has long been a focal point of French strategic interest. Beginning in the 1960s, France established military bases across the region, largely to secure uranium deposits – a critical component of its nuclear energy program – and to project its influence during the Cold War. The 2013 intervention in Mali, following a coup and the rise of the Islamist group, Ansar Dine, marked a significant escalation. Operation Serval, supported by international allies, successfully pushed back the militants but failed to fundamentally address the underlying issues of poverty, weak governance, and ethnic tensions. This intervention, while lauded by some, established a pattern of French-led military operations, often with limited civilian oversight and criticized for fueling resentment and exacerbating existing conflicts.
Stakeholders involved in this landscape are remarkably diverse. France, driven by both economic interests and a perceived responsibility to maintain security, remains deeply invested in the region. The European Union (EU) has provided significant financial and logistical support, though its approach has been frequently criticized for prioritizing security over development. Within the Sahel itself, Mali, Niger, and Burkina Faso have recently withdrawn from the African-led force known as the G5 Sahel, further solidifying France’s dominant position. However, a new dynamic is emerging with the rise of Russia’s Wagner Group, which has established a significant presence, particularly in Mali and the Central African Republic, offering military support and security services to governments struggling to maintain control. The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) has attempted to mediate and impose sanctions, but its influence has been hampered by the refusal of several Sahelian nations to reinstate ousted leaders. “The situation is inherently fragile,” states Dr. Fatima Diallo, a specialist in African security at the Institute for Strategic Studies, “The reliance on external actors, combined with pre-existing grievances, creates a perfect storm for instability.”
Data from the United Nations Peacekeeping Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) highlights the continuing severity of the security situation. In 2023, MINUSMA recorded a 70% increase in violent extremist attacks compared to 2022, with Jihadist groups exploiting the power vacuum left by the withdrawal of international forces and the political instability. According to the Global Conflict Tracker, the number of attacks attributed to extremist groups in the Sahel has more than doubled over the last five years, impacting millions of civilians. Furthermore, the region is increasingly affected by climate change, with prolonged droughts and desertification contributing to resource scarcity and displacement, which in turn fuels conflict. Recent reports indicate a surge in migration flows across the Sahel, primarily driven by insecurity and economic hardship.
Recent developments over the past six months reflect a hardening of positions. The coup in Niger in July 2023, followed by similar actions in Mali and Burkina Faso, dramatically altered the geopolitical calculus. France responded with sanctions and suspended military cooperation, while Russia deepened its ties with the newly aligned governments. ECOWAS initially imposed a crippling trade and travel embargo, but this has since been eased under pressure from the coup leaders. The recent expulsion of French military personnel from Niger marks a definitive shift away from French influence. "The Sahel is no longer a client state," declared an anonymous senior official within the French Foreign Ministry in late November. "We are focusing on supporting our partners in combating terrorism and promoting stability within their own borders."
Looking ahead, the next six months are likely to see continued instability in the Sahel. The potential for further coups, increased terrorist activity, and a deepening of the humanitarian crisis remain high. Long-term, the region faces a critical juncture. Without a fundamental shift in approach that prioritizes local ownership, good governance, and sustainable development, the region risks descending into a protracted state of chaos and violence. Within 5-10 years, the Sahel could become a battleground for competing global powers, further complicating international relations. “The challenge is not simply to contain extremism,” argues Professor Antoine Dubois, a political analyst at Sciences Po, “It’s to address the root causes of instability, which are deeply intertwined with historical legacies and contemporary realities.” The dynamics are undoubtedly shifting, but the underlying vulnerability of the region remains a significant concern for global security.
The future of the Sahel hinges on the ability of international actors to foster genuine partnerships based on mutual respect and a shared commitment to building a more secure and prosperous future for the region’s people. The question remains: can dialogue and cooperation replace the patterns of dominance and intervention that have characterized the region for so long? The fate of this strategically vital region, and indeed, aspects of the broader global security landscape, depend on the answer.