The escalating competition for strategic leverage in the Horn of Africa, largely driven by China’s increasingly assertive economic and security presence, presents a burgeoning challenge to established global alliances and demands a critical reassessment of India’s long-held foreign policy priorities. The region’s instability, marked by protracted conflicts, humanitarian crises, and the rise of non-state actors, has long been viewed through a primarily Western lens, but India’s intensifying engagement signals a fundamental shift in the balance of power, demanding meticulous observation and analysis. The potential for escalating geopolitical rivalry, coupled with the vulnerabilities of fragile states, underscores a critical juncture for international diplomacy.
The Horn of Africa, encompassing Somalia, Eritrea, Djibouti, Ethiopia, and Sudan, has historically been a region of significant strategic importance, largely due to its proximity to vital shipping lanes and the presence of valuable natural resources. Historically, Western powers, primarily the United States and, to a lesser extent, the United Kingdom, have dominated the political and security landscape, primarily through military interventions, aid programs, and security partnerships. However, China’s investments in infrastructure projects – ports, railways, and telecommunications – coupled with its engagement in peacekeeping operations, have dramatically altered this dynamic. India, recognizing this evolving landscape, has been steadily increasing its diplomatic, economic, and security footprint in the region, primarily focusing on bolstering ties with Ethiopia and Somalia, but now extending its influence across multiple fronts.
Recent developments over the past six months reveal a deliberate and calculated strategy. In July, India concluded a major defense exercise with the Somali National Army (SNA) – the largest bilateral military exercise conducted by India with any African nation – demonstrating a commitment to supporting Somalia's counterterrorism efforts and maritime security. This followed a series of high-level diplomatic engagements, including a visit by the External Affairs Minister to Addis Ababa to address concerns regarding Ethiopia’s border security and its increasingly strained relations with Sudan. Furthermore, India has been a staunch advocate for a negotiated resolution to the ongoing conflict in Sudan, offering to mediate between the warring factions, a role traditionally filled by regional powers like Saudi Arabia and the UAE. “India’s interest in the Horn is not merely about securing its own economic interests, although that is undoubtedly a factor,” stated Dr. Amina Khalid, a specialist in African security studies at the Brookings Institution, “It’s fundamentally about maintaining stability in a region that is increasingly becoming a theater for great power competition, and strategically positioning itself as a credible partner for a range of nations.”
The motivations driving India’s strategy are multifaceted. Economically, the Horn of Africa presents opportunities for trade and investment, particularly in sectors such as fisheries, agriculture, and energy. Geopolitically, India seeks to counter China’s growing influence and to solidify its image as a responsible global actor. The region’s vulnerability to extremism, particularly Al-Shabaab’s continued operational capabilities, provides a justification for security cooperation, aligning with India’s broader counterterrorism strategies. However, India’s actions are not without potential risks. The presence of multiple competing actors – China, the United States (albeit with a reduced footprint), Saudi Arabia, and the UAE – creates a complex geopolitical environment, potentially leading to friction and miscalculation. “India’s approach is remarkably pragmatic, but it also risks becoming entangled in a proxy conflict,” warned Professor David Albright, a leading expert on international relations at the London School of Economics. "The challenge for India will be to navigate this complex terrain without inadvertently exacerbating existing tensions or undermining its own strategic goals."
The implications of India’s strategic shift extend beyond the Horn of Africa. It signals a broader trend of emerging powers seeking to challenge the established dominance of the United States and Europe. The rise of India as a significant player in the region will undoubtedly influence the dynamics of international institutions and multilateral forums. Short-term, over the next six months, India will likely continue to deepen its security cooperation with Somalia, focusing on maritime security and counterterrorism. We can anticipate continued diplomatic engagement with Ethiopia, attempting to foster stability and resolve border disputes. However, the situation in Sudan remains precarious, and India’s ability to mediate a lasting peace will be contingent upon the willingness of all parties to engage in meaningful negotiations.
Looking ahead, over the next 5-10 years, India’s influence in the Horn of Africa could become increasingly significant. The success of China’s infrastructure projects will continue to shape the region’s economic landscape, prompting India to invest further in similar ventures. India’s role in regional peacekeeping operations could expand, solidifying its position as a key contributor to regional stability. However, the long-term stability of the Horn of Africa remains uncertain, heavily influenced by factors such as political transitions, economic development, and the ongoing conflicts. India’s ability to adapt its strategy, maintain open channels of communication with all stakeholders, and promote a shared vision for a stable and prosperous region will be critical to its success. The shifting sands of influence in the Horn of Africa present a powerful test of India’s foreign policy capabilities, demanding a sustained, nuanced, and strategically astute approach.