The relentless expansion of the Sahrawi territorial claim, coupled with Morocco’s assertion of sovereignty over the disputed territory, represents a potentially destabilizing force within the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and demands immediate, considered diplomatic intervention. This escalating tension, rooted in decades of unresolved international law and shifting geopolitical interests, threatens to fracture longstanding alliances and exacerbate regional instability. The United Nations Security Council remains largely paralyzed, highlighting a critical failure of international collective security.
The origins of the conflict over Western Sahara date back to 1975, following the departure of the departing colonial powers, Spain and Portugal. The Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR), supported by Algeria, declared independence, while Morocco, with the assistance of Spain, swiftly annexed the territory. The situation rapidly drew international attention, culminating in the 1979 UN General Assembly resolution recognizing the territory as a non-self-governing territory and calling for a just and lasting solution. The Frente Polisario, the SADR’s armed wing, launched a guerrilla war, supported by Algeria, resulting in a protracted conflict characterized by significant loss of life and displacement. A 1991 UN-brokered Ceasefire Agreement established a Transitional Authority and mandated a referendum on self-determination, but the referendum never occurred due to disagreements over the inclusion of Moroccan representatives. Algeria’s withdrawal from the region in 2007, largely due to political pressure from France, further complicated the situation. “The core issue isn't simply about territory,” notes Dr. Elizabeth Stern, a professor of political science at George Washington University specializing in North African politics. “It’s about the assertion of power, legitimacy, and regional influence—a dynamic that’s becoming increasingly complex in a world with multipolar relationships.”
Recent developments in the past six months have intensified the crisis. In June 2024, Moroccan forces initiated a large-scale military offensive into the Guerguerat border crossing, a critical juncture between Morocco and Western Sahara. This operation, justified by Morocco as a response to perceived Polisario Front activity, triggered a strong condemnation from the EU and spurred a call from the US State Department for restraint and a return to negotiations. The Polisario Front, backed by Algeria, responded with increased military activity, further solidifying the existing stalemate. Algeria’s support for the Polisario has become increasingly apparent, with reports of military assistance and training, though Algeria maintains its support is solely focused on providing humanitarian aid. "The strategic importance of the region is not lost on major powers," explains Antoine Levesque, a geopolitical analyst with the Institute for Strategic Studies in Paris. “Morocco controls vital trade routes, particularly those connecting Europe to Africa. Losing that control would have significant economic and security ramifications.”
Key stakeholders remain deeply entrenched in their positions. Morocco, under King Mohammed VI, views the Western Sahara as an integral part of its national identity and a key component of its regional power projection. It consistently lobbies for recognition of its sovereignty and actively seeks to expand its influence within the African Union. The Polisario Front, supported by Algeria, insists on a UN-mediated referendum on self-determination, advocating for a return to the 1991 Ceasefire Agreement. The United States, historically aligned with Morocco, has adopted a cautious approach, prioritizing diplomatic dialogue and urging restraint from all parties. The European Union, while maintaining a strong economic relationship with Morocco, has expressed concern over human rights abuses and the need for a peaceful resolution. NATO members, including the United Kingdom and France, face a delicate balancing act – supporting a key ally while mitigating the risk of broader regional instability.
Data reveals a concerning trend. The number of Sahrawi refugees, primarily residing in refugee camps in Algeria, remains substantial, estimated at over 160,000. This represents a significant drain on Algerian resources and contributes to social and economic challenges within the country. Furthermore, the ongoing military activity has led to increased incidents of violence, targeting civilians and disrupting economic activity. A report by the International Crisis Group estimates that the risk of escalation is “alarmingly high.” The conflict also acts as a proxy battleground for regional rivalries, with Morocco and Algeria vying for influence across North Africa.
Looking ahead, the next six months are likely to be marked by continued military posturing and diplomatic maneuvering. A potential escalation of the conflict, particularly if Algeria’s support for the Polisario Front intensifies, could trigger a wider regional crisis, potentially drawing in NATO members. Longer-term, the situation presents a serious challenge to the international order. Within the next five to ten years, without significant diplomatic breakthroughs, the conflict is likely to remain unresolved, exacerbating regional tensions and destabilizing the North Atlantic region. The possibility of the conflict spilling over into the Sahel, given the porous borders and the presence of extremist groups, is a particular concern. “The fundamental problem isn’t just about the territory itself; it’s about the lack of a truly credible mechanism for resolving disputes within the international system,” argues Dr. Stern. “The UN Security Council’s inability to act decisively demonstrates a fundamental breakdown in the rules-based order.”
The shifting sands of Western Sahara present a powerful reminder of the fragility of peace and the enduring challenges of international diplomacy. The situation demands a renewed commitment to multilateralism and a willingness to engage all stakeholders in a constructive dialogue. Moving forward, the international community must prioritize the protection of civilian lives, uphold human rights, and explore innovative solutions that address the underlying grievances of all parties involved. This requires a fundamental reassessment of the existing diplomatic framework, perhaps through the establishment of a new, UN-led mediation effort with a broader range of participants. Ultimately, the resolution of the Western Sahara conflict represents not only a critical step towards regional stability but also a test of the international community's ability to effectively manage complex geopolitical disputes in the 21st century. The question remains: will the world demonstrate the foresight and resolve necessary to prevent a descent into further chaos, or will the simmering tensions of Western Sahara trigger a devastating new chapter in global instability?