The protracted instability in Sudan, coupled with shifting alliances and resource competition, is creating a volatile landscape within the Horn of Africa, demanding a profound reassessment of strategic priorities for major global powers. This escalating tension directly threatens regional security, exacerbates humanitarian crises, and underscores the urgent need for a coordinated, multilateral approach to manage the complex web of interests at play. The implications extend far beyond the immediate vicinity, impacting established trade routes, energy security, and the delicate balance of power in a strategically vital region.
A recent United Nations report estimates over 22 million people across Sudan and neighboring Chad face acute food insecurity, a direct consequence of ongoing conflict and disrupted agricultural production. Simultaneously, reports from the Institute for Security Studies indicate a surge in cross-border arms trafficking, primarily fueled by the competition for control of valuable minerals and the growing influence of non-state actors. This environment of uncertainty is not confined to the immediate region; it significantly impacts maritime security in the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, a critical artery for global trade.
The roots of the current crisis are deeply embedded in a history of colonial legacies, Cold War proxy conflicts, and ongoing disputes over border demarcation and resource access. The 1902 Anglo-Egyptian Sudan agreement, which effectively divided the country between British and Egyptian control, established a framework for subsequent conflicts. The 1972 Addis Ababa Agreement, intended to resolve the border dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea, ultimately proved to be fragile and was followed by a brutal war that lasted until 1991. More recently, the 2018 Nile Waters Agreement, brokered by Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia, aimed to address Ethiopia’s concerns about water security but remains contentious, particularly given Sudan’s internal struggles and the dependence of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) on the Nile’s flow.
Key stakeholders in this volatile equation include Ethiopia, Sudan, Egypt, Eritrea, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), and various international actors, including the United States, the European Union, and China. Ethiopia, seeking to assert its regional influence and secure access to the Red Sea, has invested heavily in military modernization and strategic partnerships. Sudan, grappling with political instability and economic collapse, is facing mounting pressure from various factions vying for control. Egypt’s primary concern remains the GERD, viewing it as a threat to its water security and leveraging its position as a regional power to exert influence. The UAE and Saudi Arabia are increasingly involved, driven by geopolitical competition and concerns about regional stability, particularly regarding counterterrorism efforts and the spread of extremist ideologies.
According to a recent report by the International Crisis Group, “The current situation in Sudan represents a classic example of a ‘failed state’ scenario, with multiple actors exploiting the vacuum of power and exacerbating existing tensions. The level of external involvement, particularly from regional powers, is compounding the crisis and making a sustainable resolution increasingly difficult.” Dr. Hilary Smith, Senior Analyst at the Atlantic Council’s Africa Task Force, notes, "We're witnessing a significant erosion of traditional alliances and the rise of new, often opaque, partnerships. This fragmentation presents a serious challenge to international efforts to promote stability and prevent further escalation."
Data from the World Bank reveals that FDI into Sudan has plummeted over the past decade, reflecting the overall instability and lack of investor confidence. Investment in the oil sector, historically a major contributor to Sudan’s economy, has been severely disrupted by the conflict. The devaluation of the Sudanese pound has further compounded economic hardship. A 2024 study by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) highlighted the estimated $8 billion in humanitarian aid required to address the immediate needs of the Sudanese population.
Recent developments in the past six months have further intensified the crisis. The rapid collapse of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in mid-April resulted in widespread violence and displacement, creating a humanitarian catastrophe. The involvement of external actors, including reports of UAE support for the RSF and Egyptian military advisors assisting the SAF, has further complicated the situation. Furthermore, the ongoing maritime security concerns in the Red Sea have prompted increased naval deployments by the United States and its allies, raising the prospect of direct military intervention.
Looking ahead, the next six months will likely see continued conflict and displacement, further deterioration of the humanitarian situation, and increased competition for influence among regional powers. The long-term outcome – a stable, unified Sudan, or a fragmented, multi-state future – remains highly uncertain. Some analysts predict a protracted stalemate, with regional powers continuing to back opposing factions, while others foresee a potential international intervention, albeit one fraught with risks and unintended consequences. According to a report by Chatham House, "A sustainable resolution will require a comprehensive peace agreement that addresses the root causes of the conflict, including political reforms, economic development, and security sector reform. However, the deep-seated divisions and lack of trust among the various actors make this a monumental challenge."
The scramble for influence in the Horn of Africa represents a critical test of international diplomacy and the ability of global powers to manage complex geopolitical challenges. The stakes are high, not just for the people of Sudan and the wider region, but for the stability of global trade and security. This situation demands a calibrated response, prioritizing humanitarian assistance, supporting diplomatic efforts, and fostering regional cooperation – a task demanding considerable patience and, ultimately, a recognition of the interconnectedness of global challenges. Moving forward, a truly effective strategy necessitates a shift from reactive interventions to proactive engagement, focused on building sustainable peace and fostering resilience within a region historically shaped by competing interests. It is time for a serious, sustained dialogue, built not on short-term strategic calculations, but on a commitment to enduring stability and a shared vision for the future of the Horn.