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The Rise of the Green Bloc: Assessing the Shifting Dynamics of BRICS

The relentless advance of climate change and the escalating competition for critical resources are reshaping global alliances in unforeseen ways. The meeting of BRICS Sherpas in New Delhi, held February 9-10, 2026, underscored a crucial, and increasingly complex, trend: the emergence of a “green bloc” within the traditional BRICS framework – a bloc driven by shared environmental concerns, albeit alongside established geopolitical and economic objectives. This shift has significant implications for international cooperation, particularly regarding sustainable development, renewable energy transitions, and the equitable distribution of climate finance. The core question facing policymakers is whether this nascent environmental alignment can translate into tangible progress on climate action or if it will remain a fragmented, and ultimately, insufficient response to the planet’s urgent needs.

Historically, BRICS – Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa – represented a coalition of emerging economies primarily focused on economic growth and challenging the dominance of the G7. While discussions around sustainable development occurred, environmental considerations were largely secondary to broader geopolitical and economic interests. China’s rapid industrialization, for instance, fueled significant carbon emissions, and Russia’s reliance on fossil fuel exports presented a persistent challenge. India’s energy demands, largely met by coal, further compounded the problem. However, recent events, particularly the escalating impacts of extreme weather events and growing pressure from developed nations, are forcing a re-evaluation of the group’s priorities.

The theme presented by India – “Building for Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation and Sustainability” – marks a deliberate attempt to shift the narrative. A key stakeholder in this transformation is China, the world’s largest emitter, which has begun to invest heavily in renewable energy technologies and is actively promoting the “green” aspects of the Belt and Road Initiative, though significant criticism persists regarding the environmental impact of Chinese-funded infrastructure projects. Russia, facing declining oil revenues and increasing international scrutiny over its carbon footprint, has expressed a willingness to engage in climate discussions, although its commitment remains somewhat ambiguous. Brazil, with its vast Amazon rainforest and significant agricultural sector, faces immense pressure to curtail deforestation and adopt sustainable agricultural practices. South Africa, heavily reliant on coal, is struggling to transition to a low-carbon economy while addressing energy poverty. The inclusion of Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran, Saudi Arabia and the UAE broadens the scope of potential collaboration, with varying degrees of engagement regarding climate commitments.

Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA) reveals a concerning trend: global carbon emissions continue to rise, despite pledges made under the Paris Agreement. According to a January 2026 report, projected emissions are still on track to exceed the 1.5°C warming threshold unless drastic action is taken. Furthermore, the flow of climate finance from developed nations to developing countries remains significantly below what is needed to support adaptation and mitigation efforts. “The gap between ambition and action is simply too large,” stated Dr. Eleanor Vance, a senior researcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, specializing in climate finance. “Without a concerted effort to mobilize significantly greater resources, the BRICS bloc’s efforts to promote sustainable development will remain largely symbolic.”

Recent developments over the past six months have highlighted the tensions within the group. China's continued investment in coal-fired power plants, despite its stated climate goals, has drawn criticism from other BRICS members and the international community. Simultaneously, India has announced ambitious targets for renewable energy deployment, coupled with investments in green hydrogen technologies. The UAE’s commitment to net-zero emissions by 2050, contingent upon significant investment in carbon capture and storage, demonstrates a strategic shift. Egypt’s aggressive push for solar energy projects, largely driven by energy security concerns, offers a potential model for other BRICS nations.

Looking ahead, the next six months will be critical. The BRICS Sherpas are tasked with translating the "Building for Resilience" theme into concrete deliverables – securing agreements on shared research, technology transfer, and financing mechanisms for climate adaptation projects. A key indicator of success will be the progress of the BRICS Climate Innovation Fund, designed to support research and development of low-carbon technologies. Long-term (5–10 years), the sustainability of the “green bloc” hinges on several factors, including the pace of technological innovation, the political will of member states to implement ambitious climate policies, and the ability to secure sustained financial support from developed nations. "The challenge is not just about reducing emissions, but about fostering a new global economic order that prioritizes sustainability and equity," argues Professor Kenji Tanaka, an expert in international development at the University of Tokyo. “Whether BRICS can deliver on this vision remains to be seen.”

The meeting in New Delhi represents a potentially pivotal moment in the global climate conversation. However, the convergence of economic interests and geopolitical rivalries within the BRICS framework presents a formidable obstacle. The question remains whether this diverse group can genuinely coalesce around a shared vision of a sustainable future, or if it will remain a collection of nations pursuing their own interests, ultimately failing to address the most pressing challenge facing humanity. We invite readers to consider the implications of this evolving dynamic and to contribute to the ongoing debate regarding the future of global climate cooperation.

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