Seychelles, a nation of 115 islands scattered across the Indian Ocean, has long occupied a space of quiet geopolitical interest. Recent developments, primarily driven by a shift in India’s foreign policy and the evolving security landscape of the region, represent a burgeoning strategic play – the “Mahe Gambit.” This refers to India’s increasing focus on the Seychelles archipelago, particularly its southern islands, and the complex web of economic, security, and diplomatic initiatives aimed at asserting influence.
The scene is stark: a small island nation, vulnerable to external pressures, grappling with economic instability and increasingly reliant on external support. In October 2025, Vice-President of India, C. P. Radhakrishnan, visited Seychelles to attend the inauguration of President Dr. Patrick Herminie, a visit laden with symbolic and strategic weight. This followed a series of escalating engagements, including significant defense cooperation agreements and expanded investment initiatives. The Mahe Gambit isn’t simply about humanitarian aid; it’s about securing access to vital maritime routes, countering potential threats from rival powers, and fostering a stable, pro-India regional bloc.
Historically, India’s relationship with Seychelles, formerly known as Mahé, has been characterized by a pragmatic approach. Following Seychelles’ independence in 1976, the nation established diplomatic ties with India, a key benefactor during the Non-Aligned Movement era. However, a 2006 coup led by mercenaries – a watershed moment – dramatically altered the dynamic. Seychelles, seeking to bolster its sovereignty and security, turned increasingly towards France, a long-standing ally. This shift prompted a cooling in India-Seychelles relations. “The 2006 crisis created a void, a vulnerability,” explains Dr. Alistair Davies, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Strategic Studies in London. “India responded by meticulously rebuilding the relationship, focusing on mutually beneficial projects and a clear commitment to Seychelles’ security.”
The core of the Mahe Gambit lies in several interlocking strategies. Firstly, defense cooperation is paramount. In 2024, India finalized a multi-billion dollar agreement to modernize Seychelles’ aging military, including the provision of patrol vessels and intelligence sharing capabilities. This directly addresses concerns about maritime security in the Indian Ocean, a region increasingly contested by China’s growing naval presence. Secondly, economic investment is a critical component. India has spearheaded several infrastructure projects, notably port development and renewable energy initiatives. “India sees Seychelles as a gateway to Africa,” asserts Professor Anya Sharma, a specialist in Indian foreign policy at Columbia University. “The Mahe Gambit is about leveraging Seychelles’ strategic location to expand India’s economic footprint in the south.” Figures released by the Seychelles Statistical Agency indicate a 17% increase in Indian investment in the country’s tourism sector during the last fiscal year.
However, the Mahe Gambit isn’t without its complexities. France remains a significant influence in Seychelles, maintaining a military base and significant economic ties. The Seychelles’ geopolitical positioning is also challenged by China, which has cultivated close ties with the island nation through economic assistance and infrastructure projects. China’s investments, while primarily focused on port development, have heightened concerns within India about a potential shift in the balance of power. "China’s approach is primarily economic, aiming to gain influence through trade and investment," observes Dr. Davies. “India’s strategy is more overtly security-oriented.”
Short-term outcomes over the next six months suggest a continuation of the current trajectory. India is expected to further strengthen its defense cooperation with Seychelles, including joint naval exercises and increased intelligence sharing. China will likely continue its investments, potentially expanding its influence in the port sector. Seychelles, caught between these competing forces, will likely remain a key focal point for strategic maneuvering.
Looking further ahead, over the next five to ten years, the Mahe Gambit could have profound implications. A more secure and stable Seychelles, bolstered by Indian support, could become a regional hub for counter-piracy efforts and maritime security. However, the potential for increased tensions between India and China remains a significant risk. Moreover, Seychelles’ economic dependence on external actors, particularly India and China, could expose the nation to vulnerabilities. The future hinges on Seychelles’ ability to navigate this complex geopolitical landscape and maintain a degree of autonomy. The long-term success of the Mahe Gambit will ultimately depend on India’s ability to solidify its strategic partnership with Seychelles while mitigating the risks associated with a multipolar world. The challenge for India is to transform Seychelles into a genuinely stable and secure partner, not simply a pawn in its broader strategic calculations.