The increasing frequency of maritime incidents and evolving geopolitical pressures necessitate a reassessment of regional alliances. A state visit, in itself, is rarely a monumental event, but the deepening engagement between Seychelles and India – coinciding with significant shifts in the Indian Ocean’s strategic landscape – demands closer scrutiny. This alignment represents a critical juncture for stability in the region, presenting both opportunities for economic development and potential vulnerabilities tied to evolving power dynamics. The core question is whether this partnership will prove resilient, or become susceptible to external pressures, particularly given the historical context of colonial legacies and contemporary great power competition.
The strategic importance of the Seychelles archipelago has been a consistent, though often understated, factor in Indian foreign policy for decades. Located just south of the Malacca Strait, a vital artery for global trade, Seychelles’ position affords India a crucial maritime observation point and potential logistical advantage in the Indian Ocean. Historically, India’s engagement with the island nation began following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the subsequent shift in naval dominance towards the United States. This period saw India actively seeking to expand its maritime footprint, and Seychelles emerged as a key partner in this endeavor, largely due to its strategic location and a shared concern regarding regional security.
Throughout the 1990s and 2000s, India provided significant development assistance to Seychelles, focusing primarily on defense cooperation – including naval training and supply agreements – and infrastructure development. This occurred alongside a broader Indian effort to counter perceived threats from Islamist militant groups operating in the region. “India has long recognized the strategic value of Seychelles,” stated Dr. Amelia Sharma, a Senior Fellow specializing in Indian Ocean security at the International Council on Security & Policy, “The country’s proximity to key shipping lanes and its willingness to deepen security ties have made it a consistent component of New Delhi’s broader Indo-Pacific strategy.” Data from the Indian Ministry of External Affairs indicates that bilateral trade between the two nations has grown steadily over the past decade, reaching approximately $80 million in 2024, largely driven by Seychelles’ exports of fish and copra, and India’s exports of machinery and pharmaceuticals.
Recent developments have underscored the evolving dynamics. In January 2026, a report by the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) highlighted a surge in Chinese naval activity in the Seychelles Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), focusing on port infrastructure development and strategic surveillance. This has prompted India to accelerate its own engagement with Seychelles, offering increased security assistance and exploring opportunities for joint naval exercises. “The Chinese presence fundamentally alters the strategic calculus,” remarked Professor Raj Patel, an expert on Indian foreign policy at the Delhi School of Economics. “Seychelles’ ability to maintain a balanced relationship, leveraging economic benefits while safeguarding its sovereignty, is now arguably more critical than ever.” Furthermore, the ongoing tensions between France and Seychelles over fishing rights and maritime boundaries – a legacy of French colonial rule – further complicate the situation.
The trip planned for February 5th-10th, 2026, is particularly significant. Alongside the scheduled meetings with Prime Minister Modi, President Herminie is slated to visit Chennai and Mumbai, attending business events aimed at fostering greater economic collaboration. These engagements focus heavily on areas such as renewable energy, technology transfer, and maritime security. India’s “Vision MAHASAGAR,” or Mutual and Holistic Advancement for Security and Growth Across Regions, aims to promote connectivity and stability throughout the Indian Ocean, with Seychelles positioned as a crucial node in this network. The planned visit follows the Vice President of India’s October 2025 visit to Seychelles, signaling a renewed commitment to strengthening bilateral ties.
Looking ahead, the immediate impact of the visit is likely to be the signing of several agreements expanding cooperation in areas such as defense, maritime security, and infrastructure development. However, the long-term sustainability of this alignment remains uncertain. The increasing geopolitical competition between the United States and China will undoubtedly exert pressure on Seychelles, potentially leading to competing offers of investment and security assistance. The country's economic vulnerability – heavily reliant on commodity exports and susceptible to global market fluctuations – creates further vulnerabilities. “Seychelles faces a classic dilemma,” Dr. Sharma explained, “It must navigate the strategic imperatives of both India and China, while simultaneously safeguarding its economic sovereignty and its long-term security interests.”
Within the next six months, we can anticipate increased naval exercises between the Indian and Seychellois navies, alongside further discussions on maritime domain awareness and counter-piracy operations. Over the next five to ten years, the potential for Seychelles to become a more strategically significant partner for India remains contingent on several factors, including the evolution of China’s influence in the Indian Ocean, the resolution of maritime disputes with France, and Seychelles’ ability to diversify its economy and strengthen its governance structures. The fragile nature of trust, forged through historical circumstances and now tested by contemporary geopolitical realities, will be a defining characteristic of this evolving partnership.
The convergence of these trends – the shifting balance of power in the Indian Ocean, China’s increasing assertiveness, and Seychelles’ strategic vulnerability – demands ongoing critical assessment. The question remains: will Seychelles successfully navigate this complex landscape, or will it become a pawn in a larger geopolitical game? We encourage readers to consider the implications of this strategic alignment and share your perspectives on the future of the Indian Ocean.