The escalating instability within the Red Sea, directly impacting global trade routes and maritime security, demands a recalibration of India’s foreign policy approach to the Middle East. Recent Houthi attacks targeting commercial vessels, coupled with the broader regional realignment driven by the Abraham Accords and the evolving dynamics of the Gaza conflict, present a complex strategic challenge requiring nuanced engagement. India's historical commitment to multilateralism and its economic interests necessitate a proactive, yet carefully calibrated, strategy focused on securing its own maritime security while contributing to broader efforts for stability.
The immediate catalyst for this shift is the increased frequency and sophistication of attacks by the Houthis, a movement based in Yemen that has declared support for Hamas and the Palestinian cause. These attacks, initially targeting ships perceived to have connections to Israel, have broadened to encompass vessels from nations across the globe, highlighting the vulnerability of vital shipping lanes – specifically the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait – which account for approximately 12% of global trade. The United States, along with other nations, has responded with naval patrols and strikes against Houthi infrastructure, leading to heightened tensions and a significant increase in military activity in the Red Sea.
Historically, India’s relationship with the Middle East has been defined by economic engagement, primarily through energy imports and investments. However, the deteriorating security situation presents a fundamental challenge to this approach. India relies heavily on trade through the Red Sea, and disruptions to maritime traffic could severely impact its economy. Moreover, the broader geopolitical landscape, particularly the shifting alliances and power dynamics surrounding the Gaza conflict, necessitate a more assertive role. “India’s strategic location and historical ties with several Middle Eastern nations offer a valuable platform for diplomatic engagement and operational cooperation,” noted Dr. Aisha Sharma, Senior Fellow at the Institute for Strategic Studies. “A purely reactive posture, focused solely on protecting Indian vessels, risks isolating India and undermining its ability to influence events.”
The Abraham Accords, brokered by former President Trump, normalized relations between Israel and several Arab nations, dramatically altering the regional power structure. While initially met with some skepticism, the accords have solidified a new bloc of nations aligned with Israel, presenting both opportunities and challenges for India. India’s longstanding support for a negotiated two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, a position rooted in its own history and regional ambitions, creates a potential point of friction. However, recognizing the shifting alliances and the need for regional stability, India is exploring ways to leverage its influence within this new framework.
Recent developments over the past six months have underscored the urgency of this situation. The Egyptian-led multinational naval force, operating under the auspices of the United Nations, has been established to deter Houthi attacks, demonstrating a concerted international effort. Simultaneously, the U.S. has expanded its military footprint in the region, deploying additional naval assets and conducting air strikes. India has participated in several coalition meetings and has pledged its support for these efforts. Furthermore, negotiations between the warring parties in the Gaza conflict have stalled, increasing the potential for escalation and further destabilizing the region.
India's approach is centered around several key pillars. First, continued diplomatic engagement with all relevant parties – including the United States, Egypt, Qatar, and Israel – is paramount. Maintaining open channels of communication and actively promoting a negotiated resolution to the Gaza conflict remain core objectives. Second, India is actively strengthening its bilateral security cooperation with Egypt, recognizing its critical role in regional security. Joint naval exercises and intelligence sharing arrangements are being explored. Third, India is reinforcing its own maritime security capabilities, including enhancing the capabilities of its naval assets and strengthening partnerships with other nations. “India’s involvement must be characterized by pragmatism and a recognition of the limitations of its influence,” argued Professor David Chen, an expert in Middle Eastern Security at Georgetown University. “While India can and should contribute to efforts to deter Houthi aggression, it must also carefully manage its own interests and avoid being drawn into a wider conflict.”
Looking ahead, the short-term outlook (next 6 months) points to continued volatility in the Red Sea. Disruptions to trade will likely persist, potentially leading to higher global commodity prices. The Egyptian-led naval force will likely remain the primary mechanism for deterring Houthi attacks, although its effectiveness will depend on sustained international support. India’s role will primarily focus on bolstering its own security posture and contributing to the broader coalition efforts.
In the longer term (5-10 years), several potential scenarios emerge. A protracted conflict in the Red Sea could lead to a permanent reshaping of regional alliances, with the United States and Israel consolidating their power and India seeking to maintain its strategic autonomy. Alternatively, a successful resolution to the Gaza conflict, coupled with a more stable Yemeni government, could alleviate some of the pressure on the Red Sea, allowing India to pursue a more proactive diplomatic role. Furthermore, India could play a key role in shaping a new regional security architecture, promoting stability and cooperation among nations. “India’s ability to navigate this complex landscape will hinge on its ability to adapt to changing circumstances and to leverage its unique strengths – its economic power, its diplomatic skills, and its strategic location,” concluded Dr. Sharma. The coming years will undoubtedly test India's strategic acumen and its commitment to regional stability, demanding a calculated and resolute approach.