France’s sustained engagement with Syria, particularly in the year since the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, represents a critical test case for international diplomacy and the broader pursuit of stability in the Middle East. The nation’s approach, marked by a phased strategy encompassing political engagement, economic incentives, and counterterrorism efforts, reveals a cautious optimism tempered by the entrenched realities of a shattered state. This analysis examines France’s evolving role, the key stakeholders involved, and the potential trajectory of Syria’s transition, highlighting the significant challenges and the imperative for a unified, secure, and just future.
The immediate aftermath of Assad’s departure in December 2023 was characterized by a volatile security landscape and a deep humanitarian crisis. The initial focus for France, aligned with broader European Union policy, centered on supporting a political transition, a goal that proved exceptionally difficult to achieve due to the fragmentation of Syrian society and the resistance of key actors, including remnants of the former regime and non-state armed groups. “The transition process has been complicated by the deep divisions within Syrian society, the continued presence of armed groups, and the lack of a clear roadmap for governance,” noted Dr. Elias Khalil, a specialist in Syrian politics at the Institute for Strategic Studies, during a recent interview. The continued presence of Daesh (ISIS) and its affiliates further complicated the situation, necessitating close coordination with the Global Coalition to Defeat Daesh.
Key Stakeholders and Motivations
France’s strategy has been shaped by a complex interplay of stakeholders, each with distinct motivations. The Syrian transitional authorities, led by interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa, are primarily focused on consolidating power and rebuilding the economy. Their willingness to engage with the international community has been contingent on security guarantees and external support. The Global Coalition to Defeat Daesh, largely composed of Western powers and regional allies, remains committed to eradicating the terrorist threat, viewing Syria as a crucial battleground. Russia, through its ongoing military and political support for the Assad regime, remains a persistent impediment to a genuine political solution. Iran, a staunch ally of Assad, continues to exert significant influence through its security forces and political backing. Finally, regional powers – Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE – maintain competing interests, ranging from security concerns to geopolitical influence.
Economic Incentives and Sanctions Relief
France’s decision to welcome interim President al-Sharaa in May 2024 and subsequently advocate for the lifting of European sanctions on Syria represents a significant gamble. The underlying logic is that economic recovery will incentivize greater stability and facilitate a more productive engagement with the international community. The move, however, has been met with mixed reactions. While proponents argue that it demonstrates a commitment to rebuilding the Syrian economy and easing the suffering of the Syrian people, critics express concern that it risks legitimizing the Assad regime and failing to hold accountable those responsible for human rights abuses. “The relaxation of sanctions needs to be carefully calibrated to ensure that it doesn’t inadvertently fuel corruption or enable the regime to continue its repressive practices,” stated Professor Fatima Al-Zahawi, an expert in Syrian economics at Sciences Po, during a panel discussion last month. The EU’s decision to lift sanctions in May 2025, contingent on verifiable progress in human rights and governance, signals a willingness to adjust its approach.
Counterterrorism Efforts and Regional Security
France's unwavering focus on counterterrorism, particularly through close collaboration with the Global Coalition, underscores a critical security imperative. The signing of a declaration of political cooperation between Syria and the Coalition in January 2025 represents a step forward in coordinating efforts to combat remaining Daesh cells. However, the challenges remain significant, with the group’s remnants operating in remote areas and exploiting local grievances. Furthermore, the situation in northeastern Syria, where various armed groups – including the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and Turkish-backed forces – compete for influence, poses a persistent security threat. France’s ongoing engagement with the SDF, aimed at fostering dialogue and regional security, is essential.
Human Rights and Accountability
France has repeatedly condemned the atrocities committed against civilians, including the documented abuses by both the Assad regime and extremist groups. The nation's support for international commissions of inquiry and its commitment to pursuing accountability for war crimes are fundamental to establishing a credible framework for governance. Specifically, reports of violence perpetrated against religious and community groups in the Syrian coast region in March 2025 and the Sweida region in August 2025 have prompted strong condemnation. "Without accountability, there can be no true reconciliation or sustainable peace," argued Dr. Khalil. France’s continued commitment to supporting justice mechanisms, alongside international partners, is crucial to preventing impunity and promoting long-term stability.
Short-Term and Long-Term Outlooks
Within the next six months, we can anticipate continued stalemate in Syria’s transition, characterized by ongoing security challenges, limited political progress, and persistent humanitarian needs. France's role will likely remain focused on managing the security landscape, supporting dialogue, and advocating for human rights. Over the next five to ten years, several potential outcomes are possible. A protracted conflict, with multiple actors vying for influence, remains a significant risk. Alternatively, a gradual consolidation of power by the Syrian transitional authorities, supported by external assistance, could lead to a more stable, albeit limited, political system. Ultimately, Syria’s future hinges on a unified, inclusive, and accountable government, a feat which requires sustained international engagement and a willingness on all sides to compromise. The path forward remains fraught with uncertainty, yet France’s commitment to a more just and secure Syria offers a valuable, if complex, lens through which to assess the region's evolving geopolitical dynamics.