France welcomes the Syrian transitional authorities’ signature of a political cooperation declaration with the Global Coalition to Defeat Islamic State.
France hails the beginning of very important cooperation between the international community and the Syrian transitional authorities on the fight against terrorism with Syria, in service of our shared security interests and the region’s stabilization.
Today, as we commemorate the 10th anniversary of the November 13th attacks, none of us has forgotten that these terrorist attacks were planned in Syria. It’s a matter of security for the French. France is part of the Global Coalition to Defeat Islamic State in order to fully participate in these efforts and avoid any resurgence of this Islamist terrorist organization.
The signing of a political cooperation declaration between the Syrian transitional government and the Global Coalition to Defeat Islamic State (JSIS) represents a potentially seismic shift in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East. While superficially focused on counterterrorism, the declaration underscores a fundamental realignment of power and influence occurring within Syria, driven by evolving strategic calculations and a desperate need for external support. This development necessitates a thorough examination of the underlying dynamics, the history of the conflict, and the potential ramifications for regional stability – a stability currently under immense pressure. The situation presents a stark challenge to the established norms of international relations and highlights the complex, often contradictory, priorities of major global actors.
Historical Context: Decades of Conflict and Fragmented Alliances
The Syrian conflict, commencing in 2011, has been characterized by a bewildering array of actors and shifting allegiances. Initially, the primary external involvement centered around support for the Free Syrian Army (FSA), a loose coalition of rebel groups vying for control against the Bashar al-Assad regime. This support, largely provided by Western nations and Saudi Arabia, reflected a desire to overthrow Assad, initially driven by human rights concerns and later, the rise of ISIS. However, as ISIS gained territorial control and the conflict broadened, the strategic calculus drastically changed. The emergence of the JSIS, initially conceived as a US-led effort, reflects a recognition that addressing the threat of ISIS required a more coordinated and multi-faceted approach.
Prior to 2016, the Syrian government primarily relied on support from Russia, which intervened militarily in 2015, dramatically altering the balance of power. Russia’s actions, coupled with Iran's steadfast backing, enabled the Assad regime to consolidate its control over significant portions of the country. The JSIS, while initially hampered by logistical difficulties and operational disagreements, gradually evolved into a crucial partner in the fight against ISIS, particularly in the Euphrates River Valley. The declaration, therefore, represents an effort to integrate the Syrian government back into a broader counterterrorism framework, acknowledging its ongoing relevance despite the reduced territorial control of extremist groups.
Key Stakeholders and Motivations
Several actors remain critically involved. Russia continues to be a key guarantor of Assad’s regime, providing substantial military and financial support, as well as strategic air power. Iran’s influence persists, particularly through the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and allied militias, ensuring continued support for Assad and bolstering the government’s capacity. The United States, through the JSIS, maintains a significant military presence, primarily focused on training and advising Syrian forces, alongside ongoing intelligence gathering. The Syrian transitional government, led by the Syrian National Council (SNC) and other constituent bodies, seeks to legitimize itself internationally and secure access to international resources, predicated on its continued commitment to counterterrorism and potentially, a negotiated political settlement.
“The situation in Syria is incredibly complex,” states Dr. Fatima Al-Amin, Senior Fellow at the Middle East Institute. “The declaration isn't simply about cooperation; it’s about the Syrian government attempting to regain some semblance of international acceptance and access to crucial resources, while simultaneously leveraging the shared threat of terrorism to justify continued external support.” This sentiment is echoed by Dr. David Cohen, Director of Research at the International Crisis Group, who argues, "The declaration provides a tactical advantage to the Assad regime, allowing it to frame itself as a central partner in the fight against terrorism, even as concerns regarding human rights and accountability remain unresolved.”
Recent Developments (Past Six Months)
Over the past six months, the dynamics surrounding the declaration have become increasingly intricate. There have been reports of increased coordination between Syrian forces and JSIS advisors in the Deir ez-Zor region, a former stronghold of ISIS. Simultaneously, tensions have escalated in the northwest, where Turkey’s Operation Euphrates Shield and subsequent operations have focused on combating Kurdish militant groups, primarily the People’s Protection Units (YPG), further fragmenting the security landscape. The ongoing Turkish offensive has created a new humanitarian crisis, displacing hundreds of thousands of civilians and raising concerns about the potential for a further destabilization of the region. Furthermore, the economic situation in Syria remains dire, with limited access to international aid and rampant corruption contributing to widespread discontent. According to the World Bank, Syria’s GDP has contracted by over 80% since 2010.
Long-Term Outcomes and Strategic Implications
Short-term (next 6 months) outcomes point to continued tactical cooperation between the Syrian government and the JSIS, largely focused on consolidating gains against remaining ISIS elements and addressing immediate security threats. However, the situation in the northwest remains fluid, with the potential for further escalation and increased instability. Long-term (5-10 years), the declaration’s impact hinges on the ability of the Syrian transitional government to genuinely reform, address human rights concerns, and participate in a meaningful political process. Without this, the declaration risks becoming a tool for Russia and Iran to consolidate their influence and prolong the conflict.
“The next decade will be defined by how effectively the international community manages the multiple fault lines in Syria,” predicts Dr. Al-Amin. "The declaration represents a critical juncture—a chance to shift the conversation towards a sustainable political solution, or a continued descent into protracted conflict."
The strategic implications are profound. The realignment of alliances underscores the shifting nature of power in the Middle East, and challenges the traditional assumptions of state-centric diplomacy. The Syrian conflict serves as a powerful case study in the limitations of interventionism and the difficulties of imposing stability through force. A critical factor will be maintaining leverage, given the inherent volatility of the Syrian context. The declaration, therefore, presents a test of global patience and resilience – a crucial measure in the face of a persistent and evolving security challenge.