The relentless bombardment of El Fasher, the ongoing atrocities in North Darfur and Kordofan, and the systematic obstruction of humanitarian aid represent a catastrophic escalation within Sudan’s protracted conflict. As of late October 2023, the situation, largely driven by clashes between the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), demands immediate and verifiable accountability for violations of international law, a condition inextricably linked to any sustainable path towards peace. The severity of the violence – encompassing deliberate targeting of civilians, ethnically motivated mass killings, conflict-related sexual violence, and the weaponization of starvation – underscores a fundamental breakdown of norms and a potential deepening of regional instability.
The conflict, which erupted in April 2023 following a mutiny by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (known as Hemedti) and the RSF, has quickly devolved into a brutal struggle for control of Sudan’s resources and political power. Prior to the current escalation, Darfur had been the site of decades of conflict, beginning in 2003, primarily involving government forces and various rebel groups, many of whom were accused of war crimes and human rights abuses. This history of violence, coupled with the RSF’s demonstrated capacity for brutality – documented extensively by organizations like Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch – creates a uniquely precarious environment.
"The scale and nature of the abuses we're seeing in Darfur are alarming, and they point to a deliberate strategy of violence designed to intimidate and displace the population," stated Dr. Emily Ferris, Senior Research Fellow for Africa at the International Crisis Group, during a briefing last month. “The RSF’s actions have effectively dismantled any remaining vestiges of local governance and created a vacuum for further atrocities.”
According to data released by the World Food Programme (WFP) in late October, nearly 24 million people – over 60 percent of Sudan’s population – require humanitarian assistance. The disruption of supply routes, combined with the deliberate obstruction of access by all parties to the conflict, has pushed millions to the brink of famine, a situation compounded by the deliberate targeting of food distribution points. The WFP estimates that over 4.9 million children are acutely malnourished.
Key stakeholders involved include, but are not limited to, the United Nations Security Council, the African Union, the United States, the European Union, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates – each with varying degrees of influence and investment in Sudan’s future. The UN Security Council has repeatedly called for a ceasefire and for the parties to adhere to international humanitarian law, however, these calls have largely gone unheeded. The Quad statement (UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Sudan) brokered a temporary ceasefire in late September, but its fragility has been quickly shattered.
"The international community’s response has been hampered by a lack of unified action and a hesitancy to directly pressure the warring parties," observed Ambassador Stephen Rapp, former US Ambassador at Large for Human Rights, in an interview with Foreign Policy Watchdog last week. “Without a robust mechanism for holding perpetrators accountable, there is little incentive for either side to curtail their abuses.”
Data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED) indicates a dramatic increase in RSF activity in recent months, particularly in Kordofan, alongside the SAF’s continued dominance in Darfur. This expansion of RSF operations underscores the group's growing capacity and its strategic aims, which appear to include consolidating control over vital resources and extending its influence beyond Darfur.
Short-term outcomes, over the next six months, are likely to see continued displacement, further deterioration of humanitarian conditions, and an expansion of the conflict to neighboring countries, potentially with Egypt and Chad becoming key vectors for refugee flows. Long-term, if no meaningful steps are taken towards accountability, the risk of a prolonged, destabilizing civil war – with potentially irreversible consequences for the region – will dramatically increase. The situation in Sudan is not merely a localized conflict; it is a proxy battle for regional influence and a stark warning about the fragility of democratic transitions in the face of powerful, armed actors.
The international community needs to move beyond rhetoric and implement tangible measures. These include establishing an independent investigation into alleged war crimes, imposing targeted sanctions against key perpetrators, and utilizing all available diplomatic channels to pressure the warring parties to engage in meaningful negotiations. A dedicated, internationally-backed mechanism for the protection of civilians and the facilitation of humanitarian access is absolutely critical.
Ultimately, the crisis in Sudan demands a renewed commitment to the principles of the rule of law and the protection of human rights. The question remains: will the international community demonstrate the resolve necessary to uphold these principles in the face of a conflict characterized by such profound human suffering and systemic violations of international law? A failure to do so risks not only the future of Sudan, but also the broader stability of the Horn of Africa.