The current situation is underscored by a confluence of factors. Over the past decade, significant portions of the industrialized world, particularly in North America and Europe, have experienced a decline in manufacturing competitiveness, often referred to as the “rust belt” phenomenon. This has translated into heightened domestic protectionist pressures, driven by concerns over job losses and industrial decline. Simultaneously, emerging economies, notably South Africa, are aggressively pursuing diversification strategies, aiming to reduce reliance on volatile commodity markets and solidify their positions within the global trade system. This diversification is increasingly oriented toward non-Western partners, reflecting a conscious effort to mitigate the risks associated with over-dependence on established trade relationships.
South Africa’s strategic positioning is rooted in historical realities. Following the end of apartheid in 1994, the country embarked on a deliberate effort to engage with the global community, emphasizing a commitment to multilateralism and, initially, strong ties with the European Union and the United States. However, evolving economic realities, combined with a recognition of the limitations imposed by Western economic dominance – including persistent barriers to accessing key markets – have led to a broadening of partnerships. The country’s membership in the BRICS economic bloc – which includes Russia, China, Brazil, and India – further signals this shift. According to a report by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, South Africa’s trade flows have steadily increased with countries outside the traditional OECD, rising to 38% of total trade in 2023 – a significant increase from 28% in 2013. This trend is projected to continue, bolstered by South Africa’s substantial mineral wealth, its strategic location, and a growing investment in infrastructure.
Canada’s response, articulated through its Africa Strategy, is intended to counter this trend and proactively shape the future of trade. Launched in March 2024, the strategy outlines a commitment to deepen economic cooperation with African nations, with a particular emphasis on sectors such as agriculture, mining, and renewable energy. The stated goal is to foster “shared prosperity and security,” recognizing that a robust and stable Africa is vital to Canada’s long-term interests. “Africa represents a significant and growing market for Canadian goods and services,” explained Dr. Evelyn Hayes, Senior Fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation, “and our strategy is designed to unlock that potential while simultaneously addressing the continent’s development challenges.” Data from Global Affairs Canada shows that Canada’s merchandise trade with South Africa increased by 12% in 2024, reaching $2.91 billion.
However, the successful implementation of Canada’s Africa Strategy faces considerable hurdles. The pace of economic development in many African nations remains uneven, and political instability and corruption continue to pose significant risks. Furthermore, Canada’s trade relationships with established Western partners – the United States, the European Union, and Japan – remain strategically important and will not be readily abandoned. “Canada’s ability to effectively balance its engagement with Africa with its existing trade commitments will be a defining test of its foreign policy,” noted Professor James Thornton, an expert in international trade at the University of Toronto. “The potential for conflict—between competing trade interests and the broader geopolitical landscape—is undeniable.”
Looking ahead, over the next six months, we can expect to see intensified diplomatic efforts on both sides to solidify trade agreements and address logistical challenges. The upcoming G20 Trade and Investment Ministerial Meeting in South Africa, where Minister Sidhu will participate, will be a crucial forum for these discussions. Longer-term, over the next five to ten years, the dynamics of global trade are likely to shift further, influenced by technological advancements, climate change, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. A key question will be whether Canada can successfully establish itself as a key trade partner in Africa, or if it will remain a peripheral player in a trade system increasingly dominated by the economic and political influence of nations like China and Russia. The strategic imperative for Canada, and indeed for all nations, is to navigate this shifting landscape with agility, foresight, and a commitment to a rules-based global trading system—a system increasingly challenged by the forces of fragmentation. The question remains: can the rust belt’s gambit ultimately contribute to a more stable and inclusive global trading order, or will it exacerbate existing tensions and accelerate the disintegration of the international trading system?