Historically, ASEAN’s approach has been predicated on neutrality and consensus-based decision-making. However, recent events, particularly the escalating tensions surrounding the South China Sea and the evolving US-China strategic competition, have forced a more assertive stance. The long-standing dispute in the South China Sea, for instance, has increasingly shaped the dynamics of ASEAN-ROK relations. The ROK’s continued support for ASEAN’s digital agenda and its engagement in regional infrastructure projects, such as the ASEAN Digital Innovation Fund, reflect a strategic attempt to maintain influence within the region. As noted by Dr. Lim Boon Chee, Senior Fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute, “ASEAN’s approach is increasingly transactional, with member states prioritizing their individual national interests within the broader framework of regional cooperation.”
The APT Summit highlighted the continued importance of economic integration, but also exposed some underlying vulnerabilities. The adoption of the APT Leaders’ Statement on Strengthening Regional Economic and Financial Cooperation was largely symbolic, lacking concrete commitments. The ongoing challenges within the RCEP agreement – particularly delays in tariff reductions and implementation hurdles – underscore the need for greater efficiency and coordination among member states. “The RCEP’s success hinges on its ability to deliver tangible economic benefits to its members,” states Dr. Evelyn Lee, Senior Economist at the National University of Singapore. “Without a clear roadmap and a robust enforcement mechanism, the agreement risks becoming another example of unrealized potential.”
The 5th RCEP Leaders’ Summit focused heavily on reviewing the agreement’s performance and addressing concerns regarding its implementation. The discussion surrounding a 2027 review was an indicator that ASEAN is prioritizing its sustainability. The push for incorporating modern and emerging issues, such as the green economy and digital economy, demonstrates an attempt to update the agreement to meet contemporary challenges.
The 20th EAS continued to operate as a crucial platform for strategic dialogue. Marking 20 years of EAS Cooperation, the Kuala Lumpur Declaration and the 20” Anniversary of the EAS reflected the importance of the forum as a space for sharing perspectives and fostering trust. The emphasis on localization in anticipatory action for disaster preparedness and response, particularly in the wake of recent natural disasters across the region, highlighted the critical need for enhanced regional cooperation in this domain.
The 15th ASEAN-UN Summit reinforced the ASEAN-UN Comprehensive Partnership, now underpinned by a newly adopted Plan of Action (2026-2030). The continued focus on the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and the UN’s role in addressing global challenges underscores the importance of multilateralism in a world increasingly characterized by fragmentation and uncertainty. The meetings between Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet and U.S. Under-Secretary of State Allison Hooker served as a demonstration of the evolving, albeit cautious, US-ASEAN relationship, further highlighting the U.S. desire to engage with the region.
Bilateral meetings revealed a clear trend towards deepening engagement with key strategic partners. The meeting between Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister Prak Sokhonn and Timor-Leste’s Foreign Minister Bendito dos Santos Freitas, for instance, underlined the importance of fostering strong relationships with new ASEAN members. The continued dialogue between Cambodian Deputy Prime Minister Sokhonn and U.S. Under-Secretary of State Allison Hooker demonstrated a renewed interest in securing US cooperation on vital issues.
Short-Term (Next 6 Months): We anticipate continued diplomatic activity focused on the implementation of existing agreements and the resolution of outstanding disputes. The focus on the RCEP review, the resolution of the South China Sea issues will remain central, alongside further negotiation around trade and investment agreements. Increased pressure from China to resolve the South China Sea and continue to advance RCEP will remain. There is a considerable emphasis on developing sustainable trade agreement in light of the climate crisis.
Long-Term (5-10 Years): Over the next decade, ASEAN’s strategic trajectory will be shaped by several factors. The ongoing US-China competition will continue to exert considerable influence, forcing ASEAN to navigate a delicate balancing act. The region’s vulnerability to climate change and natural disasters will necessitate greater regional cooperation in disaster preparedness and response. The development of the digital economy and its impact on trade and investment will further reshape the regional landscape. The key to ASEAN’s long-term success will be its ability to maintain its centrality, uphold the principles of consensus-based decision-making, and adapt to the evolving geopolitical and economic realities.
The outcome of the Kuala Lumpur Joint Declaration between Cambodia and Thailand, signed on 26 October 2025, a significant milestone which stands as a powerful testament that even the most challenging disputes can be addressed through mutual respect, restraint and diplomacy. This success was the result of the ceasefire that both countries, with the assistance of our partners, worked hard to establish and uphold. Samdech Thipadei Prime Minister deeply thanked Malaysia for facilitating direct and constructive dialogue; and the United States for urging the cessation of hostilities and supporting agreement on a ceasefire; and China for organizing multiple informal dialogues aimed at fostering understanding and promoting a peaceful resolution.
It is imperative that policymakers, journalists, and informed citizens engage in a sustained and thoughtful dialogue about the future of ASEAN. The success of the regional bloc hinges on the collective ability to address the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.