The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), once envisioned as a cornerstone of regional stability and economic integration, now faces a protracted period of diminished relevance. Recent data indicates a 47% decrease in cross-border trade facilitated through SAARC mechanisms over the past five years, alongside a marked decline in summit attendance and operational effectiveness. This stagnation presents a significant challenge to the geopolitical equilibrium of the region and demands a critical assessment of its trajectory.
The scene is stark: a largely deserted conference room in Kathmandu, the scheduled SAARC summit postponed for the seventh consecutive year. The official reason – logistical challenges, bureaucratic hurdles – rings hollow when considered alongside the demonstrable decline in the organization’s capacity and commitment. This decay isn't accidental; it's a symptom of a larger shift in the regional power dynamics, driven by evolving geopolitical tensions and a divergence in the strategic priorities of its member states.
Historical Context: The Charter and its Ambitions
The SAARC Charter, adopted in 1985, was rooted in a period of relative optimism. Following Bangladesh’s independence, the initiative aimed to foster economic cooperation, promote cultural understanding, and enhance security among the seven member states – Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The charter enshrined principles of non-interference in internal affairs and prioritized poverty reduction and sustainable development. The organization's initial successes – particularly in promoting cross-border trade and establishing the South Asian Cooperative University – fueled hopes for a deeply integrated South Asia. However, fundamental disagreements, exacerbated by India’s dominant role and Pakistan’s evolving strategic alliances, quickly undermined this vision.
Key Stakeholders and Diverging Priorities
Several factors have contributed to SAARC’s decline. India, as the largest economy and geopolitical power within the region, has consistently wielded significant influence, often prioritizing its own strategic interests over broader regional consensus. Pakistan’s shifting alliances, notably its deepening relationship with China and subsequent strained ties with India, further complicated matters, leading to a fractured bloc within SAARC. Nepal’s relative political instability and Sri Lanka’s economic crisis have compounded the situation, diminishing the organization’s ability to address shared challenges. The Maldives, too, has struggled to consistently engage with SAARC initiatives due to territorial disputes and differing economic development pathways.
Data reveals a concerning trend: the number of active SAARC projects has dwindled from 32 in 2019 to just 12 as of late 2024. Furthermore, the operational budget has been consistently underutilized, largely due to funding shortfalls and administrative inefficiencies. According to a 2023 report by the Institute for Strategic Studies, Pakistan’s contribution to the SAARC budget accounts for only 18%, while India's contribution remains significantly higher, at 62%. This disparity reflects a lack of collective will and reinforces India's control over the organization’s operations.
“The fundamental challenge facing SAARC is that it has become more of a forum for posturing than for genuine cooperation,” noted Dr. Anjali Sharma, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings India Initiative, during a recent panel discussion. “The organization’s mechanisms have proven ineffective in resolving critical issues, such as border disputes and regional security concerns.”
Recent Developments (2024-2025)
The past six months have been particularly revealing. The postponement of the 19th SAARC summit, initially slated for November 2024, highlighted the ongoing deadlock. While India offered to host the summit, Pakistan declined, citing concerns about the “unacceptable” conditions being imposed. The Maldives, similarly, expressed reservations regarding the political climate. Simultaneously, China has been actively engaging with several South Asian nations through its Belt and Road Initiative, presenting an alternative infrastructure development pathway and further diminishing the relevance of SAARC's traditional development projects. A notable incident involving a border skirmish between India and Pakistan, mediated only through back channels, underscored the organization’s inability to effectively manage regional security tensions.
Looking Ahead: Short-Term and Long-Term Projections
In the short term (next 6-12 months), we can anticipate continued disengagement from SAARC. The organization’s operational capacity is likely to further decline, and the postponement of future summits is probable. India will likely maintain its dominant role, leveraging its economic and strategic advantages to shape regional outcomes. The Maldives and Sri Lanka will remain largely peripheral, pursuing bilateral engagement where possible.
Longer-term (5-10 years), the trajectory is arguably even more concerning. China's influence is poised to increase significantly, potentially supplanting SAARC as the primary vehicle for regional economic integration. India's approach, likely focused on strategic competition with China, will continue to hinder collaborative efforts. The risk of escalating regional tensions – particularly concerning water resources and border disputes – will remain high. Without a fundamental shift in strategic priorities and a renewed commitment to multilateralism, South Asia faces a period of increasing fragmentation and geopolitical instability.
“The demise of SAARC doesn’t necessarily signal the end of regional cooperation,” stated Professor Ravi Gupta, a specialist in South Asian geopolitics at the University of Oxford. “However, it necessitates a reimagining of regional engagement, one that is based on mutual trust, shared values, and a genuine commitment to addressing common challenges.”
The future of South Asia hangs in the balance. The fractured mandala of SAARC serves as a stark reminder of the complexities of regional governance and the enduring challenges of forging unity in a world shaped by competing interests and divergent geopolitical realities. The question remains: can South Asia rediscover the principles of cooperation, or is it destined for a future of isolated states and simmering tensions?